The new year hasn’t exactly gone swimmingly in terms of Nap results, though the overall profit and loss (found at the bottom) of this page/thread continues to be quite healthy.
| Fairyhouse - 13:07 |
Attaboyarchie |
16/1 |
Now, given that we’ve seen meeting after meeting surrender to the treacherous conditions over the last week or so, there’s a decent chance that the racing at Fairyhouse won’t go ahead tomorrow. As things stand, it’s on, and I'm going to chance that it stays that way and put up one that I fancy ahead of the 13:07 race.
At the time of writing, we’re talking about outsider of the field Attaboyarchie, who runs for Karl Thornton, making his third start of the campaign following what was a rather sizable break.
Having returned with a modest (at best) effort at Navan, the eight-year-old, who remains lightly raced as a hurdler, took a small but clear step in the right direction when going back up in trip at Limerick just after Christmas, suggesting that the step up to three miles, which is exactly what he gets here, would be beneficial.
Returns to scene of best bumper run for a trainer who knows how to ready one at Fairyhouse
The step up in distance looks positive, but that’s not the only plus, oh no. Fairyhouse is where this lad did his best work as a bumper horse, finishing second to a horse that is now rated 142 over hurdles. Such form rates well in relation to this contest.
It’s also worth mentioning that Karl Thornton’s runners typically do quite well at this venue. At Fairyhouse, in the last five season’s, Thornton has achieved a 37% strike rate. That’s not bad at all. From a win/place point of view, the strike rate rises to a rather impressive 66.7%.
If we go back to 2023, we can see that this horse finished a not-far-away fourth over two miles and four furlongs at Wexford, doing so from 8 lbs higher in the weights, again suggesting that three miles would suit.
For my money, with very little weight on his back, racing from what doesn’t look like an overly stingy mark, for a trainer that certainly knows how to target races at the County Meath track, odds of 16/1 offer a slice of value.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 81 Naps) has a running P/L of +£65.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
In December 2020 we sadly 
