Good Girl Kathleen 5/1 – Warwick 3.00
I really like Kingston Queen, but Jack Tudor opting for rides at Newbury over this ride, which is worth more prize money, is enough to put me off. I don't think the rest of these are great, apart from White Noise, who has done very well this season. As a result, I thought the Irish challenger could be worth backing.
Emmet Mullins' horses are always well-backed when they make the trip over to the UK, so I don't expect crazy odds. This mare won a Grade 3 last time out, putting up a clear best RPR in this race. Having the added stamina for this trip over 2m 3f on heavy ground isn't a bad thing, and I hope they make use of her stamina by racing prominently and making it a proper test.
Knight Of Allen 4/1 – Newbury 3.55
I was very tempted to put up Knight Of Allen in the main thread, but the doubts over the trip were enough to halt me in my progress. Despite that, I am still more than happy to take a chance on him in the Lucky 15 thread.
He has run over 3m before, but that came on good to firm, which is completely different to 3m on heavy ground. However, he loves testing ground and has been running in some good races this year. Beating Aviation now looks good, with the runner-up winning nicely in a good handicap at Kempton the other weekend.
His run at Cheltenham in a Class 2 against some nice novice chasers was a good effort over 2m 4f on good ground, which he found too sharp and too quick for him. He is the forecasted favourite before I've seen the odds, and I think he is the one to beat, with the best form.
A Likeable Rogue 9/1 – Newbury 4.30
I think, at a price, A Likeable Rogue was worth putting in the Lucky 15 bet.
John Dawson is a very small trainer based in North Yorkshire, but he seemingly believes he has a useful horse on his hands. A Likeable Rogue was pitched into the deep end on debut in a Class 1 Listed bumper at Cheltenham, but he proved to be better than his 80/1 odds by finishing fourth.
Last time out, he got his win at Wetherby, doing it in good style towards the end, even though it wasn't on the bridle. Connections are willing to travel down south with him again, and Brian Hughes has travelled for the one ride.
Tyrrehnian Sea 7/2 – Southwell 7.30
I think Tyrrehnian Sea has to be the best looking horse in training. We all love a grey, but this lad just looks spectacular, and he has the ability to match.
He has always been a solid horse, but only on the all-weather. This is a very winnable race if the favourite underperforms. My selection won this race last year and has run well on his last two starts, proving he is still capable at the age of eight.
GambleAware