Saturday’s Lucky 15 Tips – Selections from Newbury

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When your instincts seem to be better than anything 99% of tipsters can offer up, there has to come a time when you stop being swayed by the paper form and prices.

Unfortunately for me, that day is yet to come and yesterday was yet another sick, sick day despite landing a 16/1 winner. I did have a few words written out to explain but that'd only be wasted time, I'll again try to take solace in how easily identifiable winners are to me and endeavour to trust myself as time goes on.

I was unable to start looking at Saturday's card until very late in the evening, it looks to be one of the most competitive looking Saturday's I can remember, I'd have liked to have the whole day to dig us out a few but we'll take our chances and hope for the best on a few capable of outrunning their prices.

Attacanter Racing Tips

Whip Cracker 6/1 four places – 14.40 Newbury

I don't tend to go with the big races or big names too often, value is often lost and I much prefer to analyse tried and tested handicappers. These races are trickier to decipher, especially when your attention is stretched across all of racing.

Ryan Moore needs no introduction, I haven't even checked his other rides but it is this horse dropped into a handicap that makes some kind of appeal even before seeing the trainer has had 2 winners from his last 2 runners.

One winner from 5 rides isn't overly inspiring from this combination either however we can't use that to discount such a jocket/trainer. The trainer has only had 6 winners from 81 runners over the previous 4 years but over 20% of his runners have hit the frame. Ryan has had 33% of his runners here land in the places including 2 for this trainer.

The horse has only been seen on a race track 5 times, a win and a 2nd as a 3yo reads well, he started his campaign as a 4yp back in April when 2nd in Listed company to 114 rated Jayarebe, the Epsom Derby 2nd Ambiente Friendly was in behind. The horse failed miserably over this trip next time in a 5 runner field before mid-div at Royal Ascot in a Heritage Handicap.

None of that really makes me want to chance him, and given the number of alternatives today, it may prove my undoing but I do think he is capable of a lot more than he's shown recently and near enough at the top of the market I am just about happy to include him albeit he may not have been if I'd had a good few hours to really get stuck in.

Movie Maker 4/1 five places – 17.00 Newbury

Opting for the favourite, or this kind of price with 5 places paid isn't ideal, especially with the profile of the horse, but I have been on the right side of a couple from this combination at such races and that is enough for me to chance.

There are a good few in this I could chance, as is often the case, with plenty of pleasing form to use as justification, I have decided to side with the inexperienced S bin Suroor gelding.

This horse romped to victory here at Newbury on his 2nd start at this time last year, it won't be as heavy this year as it stands but it is soft and off of that alone, I think the horse must have good place claims, he won by over 5 lengths and although an ordinary enough level, there were plenty of winners in behind.

He was only seen once since then, when 4th of 15 in Meydan this January, a long layoff isn't ideal but I have seen the trainer do it before, I typically overlooked one of theirs recently thinking it was 50/50 whether it wins or bombs, I think it went in, so let's hope of a repeat performance from a yard amongst the winners this week.

Room Service 12/1 six places – 15.35 Ayr

This is a big race and should have been fully investigated, a top Scottish yard has a horse half the price of any other rival but I have taken a lazy stab in one that should be well capable of featuring.

Room Service is a very lightly raced 3yo from the Kevin Ryan yard, a winner of this race two times since 2016. The horse enjoyed a decent campaign as a 2yo and got off the mark this season last time out at Pontefract in a Class 2 having ‘failed' at Listed level before that.

The selection was out slowly last time and held out the back as a result, the track is stiff so must have benefitted from the hold-up tactics as he sliced through the field having been off the bridle for quite some time. He looked as though he had enough up his sleeve to warrant his inclusive in this at the price albeit the race looks ordinary enough.

Our Golden One 9/1 EW – 2.05 Newbury

This horse was jotted down at the bottom of my article as a potential selection, by the time I looked through the cards, I had no need of it, I forgot to remove it so when Cairnzy noticed I had found two in the same race, he ran with this one.

Hollie Doyle was necked off on Waxing Gibbous last time out, she has been jocked off by Harry Davies, a stand-out apprentice a couple of seasons ago who is 3-11 for the trainer (last 12 months). I originally thought she might have found a better opportunity so noted the horse given she was on board when 2nd on soft last time, the first time she had been on since April when the horse had last won.

Her effort that day didn't suggest a winner in waiting but given she is now a selection, I suppose we'll be relying on this Golden Horn filly to improve for the extra yardage on ground that hopefully continues to soften. She is lightly enough raced and she does at least hold place claims.

*Advised Bet – Eachway L15* 

WHAT IS A LUCKY 15 BET?

A Lucky 15 bet consists of 15 unique bets, covering every possible combination that comes from backing four selections. The 15 bets are broken down like this:

– 1 fourfold accumulator

– 4 trebles, with each treble omitting one of your selections

– 6 doubles, again covering every possible combination

– 4 singles

The attraction of a Lucky 15 is that it offers many more ways to win than a standard accumulator. A Lucky 15 uses both your acca and your singles as well as producing trebles and doubles that reward you for correctly calling 2/4 or 3/4 of your selections. To cover the 15 separate bets, a Lucky 15 uses your stake 15 times. If you were to place £1 on a Lucky 15, you would be staking £15 in total across the various bets.

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