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The return to the flat wasn't a happy place for me on AW Champions Day at Newcastle, with all three horses running below what I expected. A few dodgy rides in there, which is always the case on the flat, but that's the way it goes.
Meydan 4:35 – Kabirkhan 9/2 (1pt)
There is some very good racing at Meydan but not much screams out like they are worthy of a bet other than Kabirkhan in the Dubai World Cup.
There is a strong possibility that Kabirkhan will be outclassed in this Group 1 race against some proper dirt horses but I think he is worth a chance. This horse has come from Kazakhstan and then Russia to now being 2/2 at Dubai, which is one of the most weirdest paths I've seen in horse racing, but there is no doubting this lad's ability as he clearly has plenty. He is a big strapping horse who was clearly held in high regard when making his stable debut for Doug Watson as he was backed in favourite and Pat Dobbs was on board him, when he could've gone for the other Russian newcomer from Doug's yard, but he knew what level horse he was sitting on as he won by 4L with ease. The stakes were higher last time out in a Group 1, he was much shorter this time and went off as 5/6F, he might've not been as easy on the eye this time around, but it was a Group 1 and he still won pretty much on the bridle. Pat Dobbs could've won the race by not moving on him, but he shook him up and got an instant reply when a bit of pressure was applied and he put lengths between the field.
I know the level of horses he is up against today is very different from the Group 1 he won as you have the Asian horses turning up and we all know what they are capable of, but I just think this lad has more under the bonnet and we might only just see when he has to dig deep. I am more than happy to take the odds on him as I think he comes into this with a live chance, especially from Stall 2 which should allow him to get a prominent position.
Haydock 3:15 – Thor De Cerisy 7/1 (1pt, Bet365)
My most tipped up horse of the year is definitely Thor De Cerisy and he is making another return this Saturday.
I have put up Thor De Cerisy on four occasions this jumps season, which is something quite special and to say I feel hard done with is an understatement as I think he should've won on every start I've stuck him up. He was given a poor ride at Uttoxeter under Richie McLernon, then fell at the last at the same track on his next start when having the race in the palm of his hands, he then won on his next start when not tipped up and then last time out he won a three-runner race where two of the other horses fell or were brought down. The form of his 5th/5 at Uttoxeter in December has been franked, and I'm frankly getting bored of saying how good that form is. The winner has since won again and the third has won twice, as well as the fourth being a runner-up. He then went on to win with ease at Chepstow on heavy ground and then on his last start, I think he would've won in the same manner even if the horses didn't fall as James Bowen was sat cool as a cucumber, stalking those ahead of him and the jockeys on the other two horses were beginning to ask their mounts for an effort. The way this horse is running, I think he is a huge player in this Veterans' race against some seriously exposed horses. My selection is still unexposed and is definitely improving, and that seems like a winning combination against horses who are on the decline. He handles the ground and gets the best jockey in the country on board in Harry Cobden. What's not to like?
From yesterday’s thread
COMFORT ZONE 6/1 ew 4 places 5.05
JP has won the last 4 and WM 5 of the last 10 so I’m not surprised to see Risk Belle at the top of the market but he ran in the County 15 days ago and you just don’t know how he’s come out of the race.
CZ hasn’t run over hurdles for over a year but ran a cracker on the flat in Sept when only just touched off.
He’s rated 132 now as a 5yr old but was rated 130 as a 3rd old and being a bigger stronger horse is surely thrown in here off that mark.
His only defeat from 4 runs was when 6 1/2L 3rd behind Lossiemouth and Zarak The Brave with Risk Belle 6L behind in 5th.
There’s always risk in backing horses off a long lay off but I think it’s worth a go as I think he will be campaigned for a crack at the Galway Hurdle in August and will need to have a higher mark to get into that race.
Other fancies
2.10 Don Chalant 10/1 ew
3.55 Favori Logique 11/1 ew
4.30 Olympic Man 11/4
BOL
Don Chalant scoots in and gives a huge boost to the form of Olympic Man who beat him by 15L lto. 👍
Brilliant DC
Nice one double carpet 👍🥊🔥
33/1 shot pips Olympic Man on the line.
SICK !!
Simca mille 4-00 meydan
25-1 ew extra 6 places
100-1 ew 4 places HILLS (smaller stake)
Musselburgh off.🫣
One less pack of bent rides to worry about 😂
af alwajel 11.30 ew meydan
xylophone 12.05 ew well done all winners yesterday
wide with delight 1.15 ew
Dubai days 3.15
Dubai days 3.15
yup that ..and real force 3.30
Haydock 2.40 Judicial Law 7/1
Mayan 4.00 Auguste Rodin 7/4
Haydock 2.05 Brentford Hope 15/8
Haydock 4.25 One Big Bang 11/4
Good luck
Heading to my daughter’s house for Easter so putting up Sundays selections now as I doubt I’ll have a chance later.
2.35 Jetara 7/2 (backed thursday)
Skipped Cheltenham so comes here a fresher horse than Jade De Grugy
3.10
The market will be the best guide for this race. I was very taken by No Flies On Him on debut but he was clearly not fit nto and the market told us that as he drifted from 7/4 to 9/2. He also steps up to 20f for the first time but if he goes off fav will probably win
3.45 Sporting Glory 33/1 ew
Mirazur West is much better going right handed so will be tough to beat but SG is way over priced and I can’t resist a go at the odds.
Lto was a hard fought victory but in his run prior to that he was 2nd to Romeo Colio who more than franked the form in the Champion bumper. Providing he takes to hurdles he should outrun those odds.
4.55 Spillanes Tower 7/4 NAP
Don’t understand why he’s not clear fav for this. Has faced Blood Destiny twice beating him over this distance and gave him 4lbs too. Blood Destiny will struggle over this trip on this ground and they are also off level weights.
BOL
enemy at the gate 4.15 nap
Jalisco star 4.25 ew nb well done all winners today
Augustus Rodin 😂😂 they just love mugging you off muggy punters
catos revenge 4.30 ew
I wonder if horse racing is fixed 🤔
Mousey brown wins at 33/1 it’s set up to make them rich not us ?, they have the power . Does nt matter if it’s the best horse or not if they don’t want it to win then it won’t be winning rest assured !
A bookmaker should have no say in how a race goes. They make the price and they take their chances like us all….a 10/1 should want to win a race as much as a 2/1 does. I don’t know 🙂
Yeah the horses want to win but the bloke sat on top may not if he’s been instructed not to . A dart board selection has as much chance as a educated skilled selection even the experts can’t beat them nobody can . But it still does nt mean you can t hit the jackpot someday any body can I suppose that’s why folk stick with it like the lotttery but we all know it’s a crooked game there is to much money to be made for the greedy folk behind the scenes to let us have a share of it
Not that I’m bitter or anything 😂😂
Profitman
🇺🇸
Gulfstream – Race 11…Ways And Means @ 5/6
Race 12…Makesmygeneration @ 11/10 Boost @ 11/10 ****
Gulfstream – Curlin Florida Derby (Grade 1)
Fierceness @ 13/8
Oaklawn -Race 9..Midnight Rising @ 7/2 ***
Race 11…My Main Squeeze 5/2 ****
Fancy Timberlake later In Arkansas but probably tight between him and Muth so see how reverse forecast looks