This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
I didn't expect Inverlochy to be so weak in the market, eventually she won at odds of 11/4 after I stuck her up at 6/5F. It's a shame you don't get BOG the night before, but the bookies are trying everything in their power to reduce any advantage the punters have, but hopefully some of you got the morning prices and the drift!
Plumpton 12:45 – Duhallow Tommy 11/4 (1pt)
With the cold weather sweeping across the UK and the many conflicting weather reports it's difficult to say whether a meeting will go ahead or not, but if Plumpton goes ahead I thought Duhallow Tommy could make a winning chase debut.
This is a fairly poor chase race which is also a conditional jockeys race, so it's not one I'll be putting too much money on as you can't trust these inexperienced jockeys. However, on chase debut, I did think Duhallow Tommy made a fair bit of appeal in a race which shouldn't take too much winning if my selection takes well to jumping fences. He was 2nd on his sole PTP run and the form of that race looks solid, and it also makes a strong case that he jumps fences well. You probably shouldn't read PTP too literally but it puts it into perspective that if he held is own against some decent horses, today's opposition which mainly consists of 70-rated horses shouldn't be a match for him. Hurricane Highway won the PTP race, he is a horse I've got in my tracker and is 125-rated over fences and hurdles. The third has produced RPRs of 129 and 125 from his last two of three hurdle runs in Ireland.
From Duhallow Tommy's runs in bumpers and hurdle races, I do believe he has a fair amount of ability. He was 3rd on bumper debut behind Twinjets who has since won many hurdle races and is 137 rated over fences. He was 3rd to Captain Teague on his next bumper start, who was the best of the UK runner in the Champion Bumper and has since won a Grade 1 over hurdles. His hurdles form looks solid as well, with a couple of 4ths behind some decent horses, but was then quite poor on handicap debut over today's C&D, but I think it's safe to say he needed a wind-op for some time as he wasn't seeing his races out, after travelling powerfully he went out like a light on the last three races over hurdles, so the recent wind-op should have massively helped him out.
He has a tendency to jump right at his obstacles, which is a concern at a left-handed track, but I expect him to go from the front and hopefully get into a nice rhythm and prove he is on a better mark than many of these. I can see the attraction to backing Fakir given he is on a very low mark on his past form, and he finished 3rd last time out, but he was seriously outpaced last time out and that was on soft ground, so I don't think a quicker surface on a speedster track is going to suit.
Plumpton 1:15 – Bob Bob Ricard 11/8 (1pt)
Though Jonjo Jr is booked to ride at Chepstow and Richie McLernon was on board when I stuck up a Jonjo Sr horse which drifted to 33/1 a couple of days ago and he is on board Bob Bob Ricard today, it's not enough to stop me from backing him.
This horse has tonnes of ability, it's just whether he wants to put it all together now. This yard is in great form at the minute, but I do have a sinking feeling they might try and play it quietly on this horse today as he is one run from getting a handicap mark, but I'll take a chance that they are willing to win on him today. His jumping let him down on his hurdles debut at Wetherby where he clattered the final two hurdles and was beaten by a horse who is now 2/2 over hurdles, and he was giving 9lbs to the winner that day, so it was a nice effort, especially after a decent time off the track. Last time out at Ascot he wore the blinkers and it lit him up like a Christmas tree, he was green as grass that day and took a very strong pull which is definitely the reason why he didn't stay the extended 2m 5f, but I thought he jumped much better at Ascot and that race looks solid as I do rate the winner, who looks a very talented stayer and those just in behind will make nice horses as well.
I do think the horses in this race who are carrying a penalty are nice horses and they have good form coming into this race, but of the two I thought the Lavelle horse was the one to beat given the way he went through his race when carrying a penalty against Lord Of Thunder who has franked the form very nicely since. Canty Bay was a faller in that race, but he went through the race like a smart horse and he has to be respected even with the 7lb penalty, especially when they could've gone for a handicap.
With Bob Bob Ricard likely to be keen again, it's nice to see Doc McCoy turn up for this race as he is a front-runner and will likely set a good pace which should allow the Jonjo horse to settle. I think the track is another positive for my fancy as it's a tight track and given the way he travels through his races it should be right up his street.
Plumpton 2:25 – Juniper 13/2 (0.5pt EW, Bet365)
I put up Juniper on seasonal reappearance and she evidently wasn't right first time out, and her trainer has come out and said they thought she was firing on all cylinders but things have come to light since and she had a few issues, but believe she is back to her normal self now.
Based on last years runs and wins in chases I think she has more to offer this season, which sounds daft as she is a 10yo now, but she is a lightly raced horse for her age and the form she has shown would suggest she is decently well handicapped off a mark of 114 and she should find today's race easier now she's running against exposed older horses.
She stays today's trip out, as we saw when finishing 2nd to My Silver Lining who has done nothing but improve since then, including when winning the Classic Chase on the weekend at Warwick. Juniper gave the winner 3lbs that day and was outstayed up the Cheltenham hill, not that's nothing to be ashamed of in hindsight with what the winner has gone on to achieve. The others in behind that day have run some solid races since including Rose Of Arcadia who was 3rd in a Listed Mares race behind Pink Legend (142 rated) and Galia Des Liteaux who was 2nd in the Warwick chase to My Silver Lining. Credo (4th) has improved and is now rated 133 over fences. So the proof is in the pudding that if Juniper turns up in the form of the end of last season she comes into this race with a great chance and the odds are more than enough to make her a bet on Tuesday.
- 12:45 pm
11/4 @ William Hill
- 1:15 pm
11/8 @ Bet365
- 2:25 pm