New Year’s Day Racing Tips – Motazzen can land a quickfire hat-trick at Southwell

Apologies from the pair of us for no thread being posted yesterday. Cairnzy was feeling under the weather, plus there was a lack of communication between the pair of us and as a result, nothing got posted.

Rizzel's tips

Diva Luna & Moon Rocket Double (2.11/1 with William Hill)

Diva Luna – Cheltenham 12.55

The well-supported Diva Luna didn't get off to a flying start over hurdles that they were expecting her to at Lingfield when she was beaten at odds of 4/11F, but I think the ride wasn't the best and it did leave something for her to build on for today's race.

In this race, going off bumper form, Diva Luna is the stand-out horse in the race. She was a Grade 2 bumper winner in Mares' company at Aintree in the Spring, pulling away at the finish, and if you look at how the form has been franked over hurdles since, it looks like Diva Luna is the one to beat today. The runner-up won the Taunton Listed race over hurdles for Mares on Monday, and many in behind have won some novice/maiden races. However, just because a horse is a good bumper horse, it doesn't automatically translate them to be superior over obstacles, but I thought Diva Luna's debut over hurdles was enough to suggest she has a very good future in this code.

Kielan Woods was definitely overconfident in the mare, but she was definitely slightly undercooked for her seasonal reappearance, but also her jumping wasn't the best. I don't think she was beaten by a terrible horse, as the winner was a runner in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree. The trip might've caught Diva Luna out as well, as they aren't messing around by putting her up in trip by 4f. On her pedigree, it should suit her as she is a half-sister to Della Casa Lunga who is a Listed placed horse over 3m over hurdles. The only fly in the ointment could be the Olly Murphy newcomer who simply could be anything, but he'll have to be good to give away 7lbs to a classy bumper horse, especially on his seasonal reappearance.

Moon Rocket – Southwell 1.39

For me this, race comes down to how literal you want to read The New Lion formline with Silver Thorn, as that horse was many lengths behind the Challow winner a fair few weeks ago. Personally, I think The New Lion wasn't even at 100% in his races prior to the Challow, and even if he was, he didn't need to be fully extended, so the fact Silver Thorn was miles behind, I think you can say it's not the best of form lines.

Moon Rocket on the other hand left a great impression at Doncaster on his first start over hurdles, bolting up by 12L. The form of that race doesn't look to be anything out of this world, but it was the style in which he did it and sometimes you get the wow factor from the visuals, and that's what you got from Moon Rocket. If he comes on for that run, I think he should be tough to beat, especially over a longer trip which should suit this PTP winner.

Motazzen 7/4 (Bet365) – Southwell 3.24

On recent form, there should only be three horses in the finish fighting for the win for this race with Motazzen being the main contender, along with Soldier's Leap and Nedzor being closely matched. I'm going to hope that Motazzen is still in the same form that he has shown from his previous two starts and he can land the hat-trick.

At the time of watching Motazzen's fourth at this track behind Neigh Botha, I didn't think he was particularly well-handicapped as I thought the level of that race wasn't worth much. However, he has proven me wrong by winning two on the bounce, beating Soldier's Leap at Fontwell a couple of weeks ago, and I think he will be able to continue his progression for the Henrietta Knight stable. He stays further than today's trip, which isn't a concern as the going should become more testing than the good to soft currently stated as Southwell is expecting a decent amount of rain to fall, which should play into Motazzen's strengths, who was a powerful stayer at this level over 2m 3f.

Obviously, Soldier's Leap has a good chance as he is closely matched with Motazzen, but Nedzor rates more of a threat as he hails from a yard who likes to land a gamble. He was punted into favourtism last time out but was beaten, so chances are that they believe he is on a good mark and will want to avenge the money which didn't land. The form of that race he finished second in doesn't look the strongest, so fingers crossed Motazzen has his number.

Monty's Star 5/4 – Tramore 2.15

Unlike most of the racing fanbase, I am not a huge fan of Rachel Blackmore, I don't think she is the strongest of jockeys in the weighing room and when it gets to the nitty gritty, I think she does sometimes lack in the final stages of the race. Fortunately for me, I think this race won't need her to get too animated on Monty's Star as this second-season novice chaser looks to have found a nice opportunity to get back in the winner's enclosure on his first start of the season at Tramore.

There are some good names in this race, but many are more ‘well-worn' and have more miles on the clock. Monty's Star showed he is a very good horse from his novice chase season of last year when finishing 2nd at Cheltenham to Fact To File, before finishing a close second to Spillane's Tower at Punchestown, both in Grade 1s. Prior to that he was a ready winner at Punchestown, beating Three Card Brag, recording a decent RPR and was 3rd behind Corbetts Cross over an inadequate trip at Fairyhouse on his chase debut.

He is a short enough price for this, so hopefully he is fit enough to do himself justice and that this isn't just a pipe opener.

Cairnzy will likely chuck up a couple of selections in a few hours time.

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