Whenever you're confident in a horse in a low-rated race, you're always prone to a horse being gambled on, and that is what happened.
It's the same in Class 6 & 5 races on the flat, and the winner was smashed into 6/4F after being 300/1, 200/1, 100/1 and 33/1 on his last run.
Classical Sting drifted out, more than likely because of the gamble on the winner. He was far too keen and still pulling the jockey's arms when turning for home. If he had been relaxed and conserved his energy, he would have won that race.
Green Bonnet 7/2 (1pt) – Newcastle 2.05
I've tried to get this completed earlier than usual, and as I was finishing off, the meeting was abandoned.
Anyway, Green Bonet can definitely win a race of this nature. My sole concern about him at Newcastle is his race fitness, as we haven't seen him on a track since September. The reason for that, I'm unsure of, but I imagine it was a winter break to wait for better racing ground.
His form has all come on good ground, so he has timed it right with the ground at Newcastle. It is Good to soft on Monday, but they are expecting some quite warm weather and no rain, which should hopefully turn it into good in some form in the description.
If he is ready to fire first time since September, then I think he can do himself justice. The run behind Heart Above, which saw him finish third, now looks like a solid piece of form.
The winner is now rated 11lbs higher. Also, the runner-up has won twice over fences, and the fourth-placed horse has won twice over hurdles and one time over fences.
Passing Pleasure 11/10 (2pt) – Newcastle 4.05
I don't think the bookies will be too lenient with the prices they'll offer on Passing Pleasure, as he is 2/2 for his current stable, and has won impressively on both starts.
He has won over hurdles, but most recently over fences. He put in a good round of jumping and was backed heavily into the favourite, justifying the odds late on with a strong surge in the final furlong.
He goes up to 3m for the first time over rules, and based on how he finished off his race over a short trip of four furlongs, it has to be a positive. It's not a super competitive race, unless the opposition can find a different level of form to what they have shown in recent history.
He shoulders twelve stone for the third race in a row. Given he has won with this weight on his last starts, it's not an issue, and he is comfortable is conceding weight all around.
GambleAware