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Well, I was right about the early odds-on favourite struggling yesterday, though sadly, Stanley Pincombe failed to outrun what looked to be a generous price-tag. Back to the drawing board ahead of a new week.
| Southwell - 17:08 |
Lough Leanne |
9/1 |
On Monday, I’m interested in the 17:08 contest at Southwell, a Class 4 handicap over a mile. At early odds of 9/1, Lough Leane ticks more than enough boxes to rate as a very nice bet as far as I’m concerned.
Having not raced in 60 days, David Simcock’s runner has been waited with of late, but his handler may just have found the right sort of opening here. It's worth mentioning that he's won both very fresh and off the back of similar mini breaks previously.
Not seen to best effect at Newcastle last time out, the gelding finished a solid third in a Class 3 at Wolverhampton before that and now drops back down to Class 4 level.
This season’s Class 4 efforts merit plenty of respect
When the mount of Hayley Turner last raced in a Class 4, back in July, he finished second (of 14) at Yarmouth. Prior to that, he went close at Chelmsford, finishing third, doing so from his current mark of 76. Both of those efforts tell me that he ought to get much more seriously competitive here than his early price suggests.
Back in June, the four-year-old was narrowly beaten by the winner of a Class 4, also at Yarmouth, meaning that he’s not finished out of the first three in any of his handicap races at this level.
To be honest, if we look at the form of his last two efforts in Class 4 company, especially the last one, then it’s probably fair to say that this is a little less demanding, at least in terms of strength in depth.
Also not to be overlooked is the fact that the form of his last all-weather race, the aforementioned Class 3 at Wolves, has worked out well, with the two horses that narrowly beat him going on to perform respectably since, with the second winning a Class 4 and the winner running well at Class 2 level.
David Simcock is no stranger to saddling a winner at Southwell, while it’s not out of the ordinary for him to put Hayley Turner on a decent one. Right up there on speed ratings too, the gelding has a fair bit more going for him than a current price of 9/1 would have us believe. Those looking for value, should definitely take such odds.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is -£40.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
I think you need to change your loss/profit and month by month or something. No point doing what you say coz a person could get 3,4,5 big winners 2/3 month ago then do nothing if you get what I mean
Appreciate the suggestion. I will continue to track the running P/L to level stakes as I believe in total transparency, but I can also break things down month by month, sure.
Good luck with that one with Hayley turner on board ??
I knew she could do it ?
Could you maybe comment something like this every day? :)
Haha yea I knew I would jinx it in the best possible way . Nope fair play you called the winner fair and square. I just got a thing about Hayley turner and that Moore fellow ! ?
Nice win today Bradley??
Thanks. Always nice to see one like that get it done.
??
Thanks :)
Good tip mate. I just think most people do monthly to month but your thread not mine . Think your a good tipster (coz I don’t back short prices) and even if people did Ew you often get 2nd/3rd at slight profit prices. Let’s crack on get us some money for Christmas presents lol
Thanks for the nice words, always appreciated. Hopefully more winners on the way.