Friday’s Racing Tips – More progression is likely for the impressive Kempton winner Mutaawid

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Cairnzy had a few things come up today and as a result, had no time to cover his two selections for the main thread. He did have a little time to cover the Lucky 15 thread, you can find the Lucky 15 thread via the home screen if that's something you're interested in. 

Connie's Rose was weak in the market throughout the day and basically doubled in price before the off. She gave it a good but could only finish fourth on the day. Flaming Stone was also weak in the market throughout the day after being marked up as a strong favorite last night. I thought he was very disappointing in his race, finding very little of the bridle for William Buick.

Aside from the results of yesterday, it was a sad day in the world of jumps racing as arguably the greatest hurdler of all time lost his life yesterday with Istabraq passing away at the grand old age of 32. Unfortunately, the pair of us didn't get to watch him live as it was before our times, but we've seen the racing replays on many occasions of Charlie Swan riding Istabraq up the Cheltenham hill to many victories, as well as in Ireland. I'm sure many of you will have fond memories of this legendary horse, and if you got to see him live in the flesh, let us know in the comments.

Rizzel's only selection of the day (first was a NR) still hasn't run yet, so I'm sure he'll leave a comment on how he performs.

Rizzel's Tips

Mutaawid 2/1 – Ascot 3.35

At the top of the weights, we see Burdett Road make a return to flat racing for the first time since a brief jumping campaign. He would be of appeal against his own age group, but with him carrying 10st 2lbs against some unexposed 3-year-olds, that makes life a lot more difficult for him. I think it is best to focus on the younger horses, and the one I like is the John and Thady Gosden trained Mutaawid.

The Shadwell owned 3-year-old son of Frankel had been showing some average form but last time out when stepped up to today's trip of 12f and wearing the blinkers for the first time he showed a totally different level of form and oozed class. Though he did only win a novice race, sometimes you can't unsee how visually impressive a horse is, and that's the take I got from watching his run at Kempton. The way he travelled through the race and then put the race to bed in a matter of strides was very impressive as he managed to win by an eased down 6L. The form doesn't look particularly strong as the runner-up was heavily beaten into fifth of six yesterday, but that was over a trip I think was never going to suit, despite the form not being the best, I am happy enough to take a chance on this lad who has an impressive pedigree.

Mutaawid is by Frankel and out of a Dubawi mare, so middle distances is something which he should have been excelling over. He is a full brother to Mostahdaf who was a fantastic horse for the Gosden's and even further down the progeny list of the mare, she has produced two other Class 1 horses, and I believe that this lad can progress to that level with today's race being a nice stepping stone before moving onto bigger things.

Individualism 9/2 – Ascot 4.10

Though Baltic has been a winning machine in recent times with four wins on the bounce, I wanted to take him on as he is going up in grade and I thought Individualism was the perfect horse to take him on with.

Charlie Johnston's 3-year-old son of Too Darn Hot was beginning to be a frustrating horse as he had shown glimpses of ability as a juvenile and during his campaign this year, but it seems like the gelding operation was the key to unlock his progression, as since having the operation his two runs after have been career best on back-to-back occasions. It's not a great surprise that his best form came last time out over 11f as he is a half-brother to Sir Ron Priestly and Subjectivist, who were both strong stayers, mainly the latter who was a Group 1 winner on a couple of occasions over the marathon trips. However, though he will likely not be as strong as a stayer as his half-sibling due to him being the son of Too Darn Hot, he will still be able to relish the middle distances as we saw last time out at Carlisle when making all and staying on strongly in the fashion of your usual Johnston runner.

He is also coming up in grade like Baltic, but he is running from the bottom of the weights in this race and the 5lb rise in the handicap doesn't seem enough to stop a bold effort in this contest. Ideally, I'd like Joe Fanning to try and make all, as he is one of the best under those tactics, and given how well he ran last time out and responded to the pressure, he could take some pegging back with his strong stamina pedigree.

Fakhama 16/1 – York 7.50 (each-way)

I'll be hoping for a Shadwell across-the-card double when it comes to York's evening meeting as I fancy Fakhama in this fillies' Listed race over the extended 10f.

This Shadwell runner isn't anywhere near as strongly fancied as Mutaawid is in his race, but I think William Haggas' filly offers some good value in a race which is wide open. I think the older horses in this race don't offer a great deal of substance to their form, as even though some of them have run well or won races, the form hasn't exactly been boosted or this is a big step up in class to what they've been racing in. As for the younger horses, their form seems to be a lot better, and they are rated higher as well as getting the weight for age allowance, but I'm not fully convinced by the likes of Bolsena and Ejaabiyah. The form of the latter looks great on paper by finishing as runner-up in a Listed race behind a Godolphin horse, but the winner and the third both bombed out on their next runs in the exact same race, so given she is predicted to be an odds-on shot, I'm more than happy to go against her.

The reason why I have locked onto Fakhama is because of her decent effort at this track last year, which was her career-best performance on just her second start. She finished fourth in a Listed race, which looks miles better than the form of the majority of this race, as she was 3L behind the winner and that winner was second in a Group 1 later in that season. The second and third are proven Class 1 horses, either going close or winning, like Silver Lady who won a Group 2 in January at Meydan. That race at York was over a mile, and Fakhama didn't seem to have the speed as those ahead of her, she was staying on slightly at the finish, but given the strength of that race and over a trip which didn't look to suit, I thought the return to the venue of her best run on the same ground and over a trip which should help her, she was the value in this race.

Etoile D'Alexandre 4/1 – Thirsk 4.20

I don't think that this is an easy task for the handicap debutante Etoile D'Alexandre off a mark of 70 and on his comeback from 373 days, but there is a strong chance that he is ahead of the handicapper from this opening mark.

This horse has shown glimpses of ability on his three starts to date when previously trained by Declan Carroll but hasn't been seen since July of last year and since then he has moved to George Boughey's yard. I hate to mention that when a horse switches yards they can easily improve, as it sounds like you're putting the previous trainer down but it's not rocket science to suggest that George Boughey is a better trainer that Declan as all of the stats would suggest. With this being the first run in such a long time it is a gamble to go for this horse, but I think that this stable has spotted an opportunity for her to get off to a good start and to exploit a potential low mark.

They have opted for a hood and tongue-tie, and that doesn't concern me as she is clearly a bit of a hot-headed customer as she refused to enter the stalls when planned to run at Leicester, so the headgear will be there to calm her down before the race and then help her settle during the race. Connections must feel like today's step up to 6f will be beneficial as they also have her entered over 7f at Lingfield in four days time, which could also suggest they are supremely confident and are willing to run there as well under a penalty when landing this race.

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