Get Up Mush bumped into one at Warwick, but didn't help himself by running keenly and making a bad mistake two from home.
I had a bad feeling when watching the race that Harry Skelton was far too confident in the saddle. I've seen this script before with Skelton in the saddle, and he gets it wrong so many times. He got schooled turning for home by losing his position and being sandwiched, which saw him go into panic mode and try to make up the ground he lost.
River Voyage put in a shoddy performance. He was constantly on and off the bridle, but stuck to the task to finish fourth. He probably does need softer ground, and I think he was probably wheel spinning on the quicker ground, which resulted in his jumping being cautious.
Tom Desjy 15/8 (2pt) – Fontwell 3.30
It was touch and go whether I was going to put a tip up for Friday, as it's not fantastic racing at all. However, Tom Desjy on his chasing debut caughty my attention, and it would not surprise me if this horse is at least 20+ lbs ahead of the handicapper now he's going chasing.
Based on his hurdles runs to date, he's got to improve plenty, but he's gone chasing on the back of getting his handicap mark. This angle is one I talk about a lot, and I think it's a very profitable angle, especially at the lower levels.
Trainers aren't stupid; they try to fool the handicapper by not putting their horses in the qualifying races over hurdles. The handicapper then gives the horse a low handicap mark, and then they go chasing, exploiting it.
Obviously, we don't know if the horse can jump a fence, but it's normally a good indicator that he can when they are rushed to fences. He was second on his sole PTP run on good ground over 3m, and the form of that PTP looks strong, making him ridiculously well-handicapped off an opening mark of 76.
He was behind Moneygarrow, now trained by Dan Skelton. That horse is 133 rated over hurdles. Other horses in that PTP race include Sticktotheplan, who was a faller. He is with Olly Murphy and is rated in the 140s. So all things considered, this could be a tap in if he jumps well, as this is a very weak race and he is up against some exposed older horses.
I think the market is often a huge pointer towards what kind of performance is on the way. If you're not sold on my selection, keep an eye out for market movements, and if he's strong in the market, it might be best to give him a try.
GambleAware