Friday’s Racing Tips – Connie’s Rose could be hard to catch at Salisbury

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It was another good day as both of us managed to land a winner each. Rizzel started the day off nicely with Laguna Boy winning at 5/1, advised at 6/1 and then Geo capped off a good day when winning at a slightly drifted price of 7/2.

Laguna Boy was keen throughout the first part of the race but got to the front like he did at Kempton last time out. The drop back in trip and running in a handicap for the first time did the trick and full credit goes to Marco Ghiani who gave him a belter of a ride and was strong in the saddle.

Geo at one point looked a beaten horse, however, William Buick kept pushing away and she found a second win and powered through the centre to win quite cosily in the end.

Cairnzy's Tips

Connie's Rose 3/1 – Salisbury 6.05

Only five go to post for this contest over 5f but I don't think it looks as competitive as the market would have you think. Normally these types of races can become tactical and hard to solve but with that being said, Connie's Rose is known as being a front runner and I'll be surprised if Kieran doesn't pop up her to the front and make it a ‘catch me if you can' sort of race.

Connie's Rose is a consistent sort, with recent form figures of 282221231453 since returning from a 172 break back in April. She has had a busy campaign this term but she's a tough sort, and the fact her form has remained to a consistent level throughout tells me she's not yet done progressing and has more wins in her at this sort of level.

My selection is versatile ground-wise and has been campaigned over a variety of trips from the minimum 5f and up to 7f. Notably, most of her better form has come over 5f but she she does have winning form over further which will aid her chances of winning in my opinion, especially if going from the front and making this a stamina test, which is how I expect this race to pan out.

My selections most recent outing came at Bath over 6f, she could only manage third place that day finishing just over 2L behind the winner Treacherous who reopposes in this contest. My selection is 4lb better off with that rival this time round and I think that could be enough for Connie's Rose to reverse the form.

Give It To Me Oj 5/2 – Fontwell 5.00

Jumps racing is more up Rizzel's street than mine but I did have some recent success with Letterson Lilly winning a couple of days ago so I thought I'd have another rattle as not much else caught my eye on the flat.

I think the current market has this race down to a tee, and unless any of the newcomers are of a decent standard then I'm struggling to see how any of the top three don't come out victorious in this contest. From the three at the head of the market, the horse I felt had the best chance of winning was the Gary Moore trained Give It To Me Oj who currently shades favouritism at 5/2.

Gary Moore's charge remains lightly raced at the age of 3 and has only been seen on the flat this term. He did run to a reasonable standard on his five outings on the flat with his most recent outing at Kempton being his best performance to date when finishing two and a quarter lengths back in third place. Although my selection has to be taken on chance as he's not proven at the trip. With that said, I think he will relish this step up in trip and my only slight concern with him is that we don't know how he will take to jumping. Gary Moore is a top trainer and I can only assume he will have him well-schooled for his hurdle debut and for that reason alone I'm happy to roll the dice with him.

To quickly touch on the possible dangers to my selection, I thought Kalkaroo was interesting given that one has recent experience over the jumps and has improved with each run so far this season. I wasn't impressed with the form of his runnerup effort at Newtown Abbout back in July and he hardly looks bulletproof on that evidence. Global Skies from the Brookhouse yard is another one that has been running on the flat lately. Global Skies has probably run to be a better standard on the flat to that of my selection but I thought his stamina could be a possible issue and for that reason, I felt he was better watched this time out.

Rizzel's Tips

Moonjid 4/1 – Thirsk 1.40

It isn't a surprise to see the George Boughey newcomer towards the head of the market as he has been one of the most successful trainers with his juveniles this campaign and his horse has a nice pedigree. Hot Dancer is also vying for favouritism at the top of the market, and you can see why as he made a nice impression on debut to finish second at Chester. I have gone down a slightly different route and opted for Marcus Tregoning's two time raced Moonjid who is an interesting runner at this track.

Marcus Tregoning is getting on in age and he doesn't have the same number of horses that he used to, but he is still operating at a decent rate of 12%. He doesn't tend to waste his ammunition when sending his horses on long journeys like today with Moonjid making the trip up to Thirsk from Whitsbury (11-hour, 600-mile round trip) is seemingly a tip in itself. Marcus has had a tremendous amount of success when sending his horses up to Thirsk, with a 47% SR in his entire training career, which has seen him get 14 winners from 30 runners, which is very impressive. When you dissect the numbers, he is 2/2 at the track with 2-year-olds, which bodes well for Moonjid and he is 1/1 at the track this year, and it's only a track that he has sent three horses to in the last five years. Similar comments can be applied to Jim Crowley as he is much quieter in the saddle during the week and will not get out of bed unless a good opportunity arises. Jim is 1/1 at the track this year and is 3/9 in the last five years, with a further four being placed in second.

Obviously, the stats look great on paper but unless the horse has shown something it's hard to get involved. Thankfully, Moonjid has shown decent ability in his two runs this year. He improved fair bit from his debut effort to finish 4th/11 in a hot Class 2 Goodwood maiden, which produced an RPR of 73. From the horses who have run since (first and second-placed horses), it makes his fourth look like a fairly solid effort as they have run some belters in better-quality races. Moonjid looked like he would prefer a stiffer test of stamina and sending him over a mile and on a more demanding track than Goodwood looks to be the correct play. Marcus Tregoning was the trainer of Moonjid's Sire, Mohaather, so he knows what he is doing and if he feels like the step up in trip will suit, then it's got to be a good move.

Windcrack 9/2 – Sandown 4.35

I could be barking up the wrong tree thinking Windcrack can win this race, but I simply think she will enjoy running against her own sex in a much weaker race to what she has been competing in since the start of her career.

It's a weird one with Windcrack as everything to do with her pedigree points towards a powerful stayer, but her running style doesn't suggest that. She is by Cracksman and out of a mare who stayed 1m 4f, so you'd have thought the 10f she has been running over the last two times would be ideal, and she would be staying on strongly with that trip maybe being on the sharp side, but it has been the opposite with her weakening in the final furlongs, so the drop to a mile looks to be the correct idea.

Today, she runs against her own sex for the first time since January, and in her runs to date she has been running against some pretty good horses, much better than today's opposition. She was 5th/8 at Newbury, the winner produced an RPR of 91, the second 84 and the fourth was already rated 88, so her performances look worse than what they actually are. Last time out she weakened in the final furlongs and finished behind Ashariba who had strong form coming into the race and proved to be well hadnicapped off a mark of 75, producing an RPR of 88. The runner-up has won an egg and spoon race since, but once again that race looks much better than today's. A lot of the opposition in today's race are coming into the race in good form, but this is a Class 5 0-70 and I think at the odds, you can take a chance on Windcrack to run better now potentially tackling a trip which will suit her better. She ran over a mile on debut as a 2-year-old and finished 3rd behind a horse who is now 86 rated and the runner-up who is now 87 rated, so a repeat performance of that run should see her tough to beat, but it also shows she has the speed to tackle today's trip.

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