Sun Goddess showed that there are serious levels to this game, and she was still massively overpriced at EVS.
When the odds are priced up like Sun Goddess was, it does make you second-guess whether the bookies know something you don't. However, when I saw that she was 5/4 for the Group 1 win and EVS for a much lower-stakes race, it was a no-brainer.
I'm not going to lie, I thought she was beaten when she came out of the stalls dead last. She got checked in running, but when Ryan Moore switched her to the outside, she ate the ground up like she had wings.
Woohoo also landed up some nice profit by finishing second (once again). I thought she was going to win when she hit the front with two furlongs to travel, but she got caught by the winner, and I think you can see why she races over six furlongs.
Bacio 4/1 – York 3.35
Coming from handicap company to land a Group 1 would be nearly impossible for anything other than a sprint race in the UK. Bacio was that impressive at Royal Ascot; it's hard not to give him a shot on a track which should suit his style.
At Royal Ascot he ran the 5f quicker than the 5f Group 1 sprint by 0.36 seconds, and was carrying 4lbs more than Mission Central did when he was the winner of the Group 1. Bacio looked to have plenty in the tank that day, whilst Mission Central was flat a long way from home. Obviously, it's hard to compare races, but I think it shows the pure speed that Bacio has, and it's very easy to imagine that he'll be better suited to York, which suits the quicker types.
The recent rain at York poses a few questions, as it might scupper his speed, but it's not like he's unbackable at odds of 4/1, and I'm willing to find out.
Plaid 6/1 – York 5.20
I can see why Silver Lake is the 5/2 favourite for this race. She was impressive at Glorious Goodwood, but the 9lb rise in the weights makes her quite vulnerable.
I love a rogue pick at big odds, but even I couldn't bring myself to back Bint Al Daar at 125/1. That horse was second in this race in 2024, but has been massively out of form. Even with a 5lb claimer, meaning she runs off 7st 11lbs, it's a massive longshot. I think in races like this, staying towards the top of the market is where you want to be. Plaid was the one who stood out the most.
The Fanshawe yard is firing on all cylinders, as is the main man in the saddle. Plaid has shown that she can mix it as this level, as she was third in a Listed race at Hamilton last time out. The form of that race has been franked by the winner and runner-up. The winner ran a huge race in the Great Voltigeur and looked to be coming with a solid run until tiring late home. The runner-up won at this meeting yesterday in a Listed race, winning by 3.25L.
Plaid is still unexposed and lightly raced. I'd rather take a chance on her at 6/1 than the favourite at 5/2.
GambleAware