After a bit of a wait, it was back to winning ways on Wednesday, with Montrachet Girl getting the job done at Southwell, banking a timely 8/1 winner. Always nice when one like that goes in, let’s hope there’s more success lurking around the corner.
| Dundalk - 19:15 |
Rockbury Lad |
8/1 |
On with Friday’s action, and today I’m all about the final race at Dundalk, a contest run over an extended one mile and two furlongs. Up in trip tonight, Rockbury Lad looks like a horse to be interested in, especially all the time odds of 8/1 are on offer.
The six-year-old performed admirably over a mile at this venue recently, running on well at the death, suggesting that tonight’s step back up in distance would play to his strengths, and on that evidence, I am a little surprised to see quotes of 8/1 floating about this morning.
Dangerous to dismiss going back beyond a mile
It’s absolutely fair to say that this horse won comfortably when last venturing beyond a mile, getting the job done with a bit in hand over nine furlongs on the turf at Punchestown back in September. In winning that 12-runner race, he gave the impression that he’d enjoy a bit further too, which bodes well ahead of tonight’s test.
This is also a horse that is not without plenty of course form. Not only did he finish second at Dundalk last time out, but he was seen staying on in fourth (of 14) over a mile at the County Louth track back in November, again hinting that he’d do well up in trip.
He ran from tonight’s mark of 66 on that occasion, and it’s worth noting that two of the horses to finish narrowly in front of him in that race have since gone on to run very well in slightly better events than this.
If we go back a little further in his history, we can see that back in late 2023, he was seen staying on very well over an extended nine furlongs at Leopardstown, again suggesting that tonight’s trip will play to his strengths.
Trainer Michael O’Callaghan certainly does well at Dundalk, delivering a 20% strike rate at the all-weather venue in the last year, returning a win/place strike rate of 43%. It’s fair to say that his horses typically turn in positive efforts here.
Ultimately, we’re talking about one that is unexposed over this longer distance, a runner who has several times suggested that he’ll thrive if presented with a test of this nature. Tonight he gets it and when we take everything into account, he looks worthy of support at odds of 8/1.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 92 Naps) has a running P/L of +£45.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
