Summer In Milan, who was well supported into 7/2 before the off, ran well yesterday, finishing third, though he had little chance with the runaway winner, who sauntered clear before being heavily eased over the line. Not to be on that occasion.
| Warwick - 14:40 |
Pepe Le Moko |
7/1 |
On Friday, I like Pepe Le Moko, who runs in the 14:40 race at Warwick, doing so for a trainer who has a very decent course record.
Could the seven-year-old, who has eased nicely in the weights, improve on what was his first real showing of the campaign last time out? At odds of 7/1, I’m betting that he can.
Well handicapped and has his ideal race conditions at trainer’s best venue
Sure, this lad hasn’t really shown much since returning to action this season, failing to get involved in three runs before the turn of the year, while his effort at Newbury back in January wasn’t exactly striking either.
However, he did a little better last time out, while his rating has eased considerably since his first appearance of the season, so much so that the gelding now sits 1 lb below his last winning mark, while he returns to the scene of his first chase success.
Moreover, if we look at his Kempton win just over a year ago, then it’s hard to say that he wouldn’t be capable of getting seriously involved in a race of this nature.
Not only does the seven-year-old look well handicapped, but the return to this course is not something to ignore, with Jane Williams boasting a rather impressive career strike rate of 30.56% at Warwick, which tells me that she absolutely knows how to prepare one for a test at this venue.
On a similar note, the horse himself, who has one win from one run over C&D, has a rather eye-catching record in races of this nature, never finishing out of the first two when racing no higher than Class 3 level from a mark of 119 or less, winning twice and finishing second once.
On paper, you wouldn’t say that this is the deepest Class 3 contest, so as he lurks on a dangerous mark, getting weight from most of the field, for a trainer who does very well at Warwick, odds of 7/1 look a little generous.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 95 Naps) has a running P/L of +£15.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
