After three no-shows, yesterday was better, with Simiyann being the subject of strong support, before running well for a close-up second. As far as I’m concerned, he’ll be winning races of that nature in the near future, it’s just a shame that he couldn’t get it done yesterday having been available at a nice price early doors.
| Newcastle - 19:30 |
Bernadine |
9/2 |
On Friday, I’m interested in the 19:30 at Newcastle, where Bernadine may just be poised to strike, and at odds of 9/2, I’m betting that she can do just that.
In first-time blinkers, James Fanshawe’s runner delivered an improved effort over this trip at Southwell last time out. Now with the highly sought-after Kaiya Fraser, who claims a handy 3 lbs, in the saddle, she could go one better.
Fanshawe not short of winners at Newcastle
James Fanshawe is a trainer that often targets Newcastle races and he often does so to good effect, winning with a rather chunky 35% of his runners at the venue in the last year.
During that time, Fanshawe has sent 20 runners to Newcastle. 12 of those runners have either won or placed, giving the trainer a win/place strike rate of 60%.
The four-year-old filly has been a little frustrating, but she should have this race run to suit, with a decent pace to aim at, while Kaiya Fraser being in the saddle is a clear positive, with his claim leaving her looking well weighted against most of these.
Right up there in terms of speed ratings, she sits 3 lbs below her last winning mark, while several of her placed efforts in the last season or so tell me that she’s capable of taking a race of this description.
As far as I’m concerned, too many boxes are being ticked for odds of 9/2 not to be considered on the generous side. Such odds should be taken sooner rather than later by those seeking value for money.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£4.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
In December 2020 we sadly 
