The handicaps this year have been brutal, and with each year that passes, more and more favourites win.
I've been burnt on a few occasions with the couple of favourites I've backed in the handicaps, as they look like handicap blots, but don't deliver.
Dan Skelton has landed two big gambles in the handicaps this year, and it's all about who can cheat the handicapping system the best.
Cheltenham 2026 William Hill County Handicap Hurdle | 2.00 pm – Sinnatra 11/2 (0.75pt EW, 6pl)
I found this a really hard equation to work out. I had five or so horses left, and I found it hard to decide which was the best handicapped. In the end, I've gone against some key trends and picked Sinnatra.
Only Willie Mullins has trained a winner on their handicap debut for this race, which puts a line straight through my selection, who is trained by Dan Skelton. Another trend to add is that Dan Skelton has never won this race with a novice, which is another line through Sinnatra who is still only a five-year-old novice with five runs to his name.
However, Dan Skelton is up there with Willie Mullins for being the best at landing a winner in this race. Dan has won this four times since 2016, and has done it with some big-priced horses. This horse isn't a big price, and it's not a surprise, as we all know what Dan is like, and the horse Harry is on will always be fancied.
I did fancy Tellherthename, as the form from years ago behind Jango Baie has turned out to be decent. However, he has never really kicked on, and it's hard to say that he's on a good mark. The only reason he is fancied in the market as much as he is is due to being trained by Dan Skelton. He could be ahead of the handicapper with Dan relighting the fire in him, but I wouldn't be on him at those odds.
As for Sinnatra, he could be decently well handicapped. The form behind Act Of Authority now looks solid. That horse was second in the Turners on day two, recording an RPR in the 140s. This lad was a couple of lengths behind him earlier in the season, and runs off 135 today. If he can run to somewhere around 142-142, that could be enough to see him win this.
Cheltenham 2026 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle | 5.20 pm – Kel Histoire 9/2 (1pt)
This isn't a race I'm particularly strong on; it's a total minefield, and like the rest of the handicaps, it's whoever has got their horse in by swindling the handicapper the best.
The one who stood out the most was Kel Histoire, and as I've gone to check the odds, he is the favourite. Willie hasn't won this since Galopin Des Champs, and Gordon Elliott has a much better record, but this horse looks suited for this race.
They've changed the layout of the handicaps this year, and horses need to have had five runs over hurdles to qualify. This horse has had five hurdle runs on the dot, with the latest two being after Christmas. It seems that this has been the plan, and given he had some solid form from last season, he could be chucked in.
He was second to Salvator Mundi in a Grade 2, which reads well. He must've been showing enough signs at home last season, as they chucked him in the Turners', and it would have been so JP had a runner, as he had the winner in The New Lion.
GambleAware