Cheltenham 2025 Day 3: Best outsider and value long-odds bets

The best outsider/value long-odds horse was placed for the second day on the trot. This time, it was Colonel Mustard who was placed at 25/1.

Similar comments can be applied to yesterday's outsider to the day one outsider. Turning for home, we were in with a live winning chance and that's all you can ask for when the races are this competitive at the best jumping festival of the year.

Colonel Mustard didn't put a foot wrong throughout the entire race, so I have nothing bad to say other than he was just not as well-handicapped as those ahead of him.

Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase

Rizzel's tips

This race is a strange one as it used to be at the Cheltenham Festival a few years ago but was then moved to allow the Mares' Chase to come into the set of races they have across the four days. It moved to Sandown from 2020 to 2024 and was run during the Imperial Cup meeting, which was a week before the Cheltenham Festival, but for some reason, they decided to bring it back.

This race is a tricky one, as even though I think you can write a line through a lot of the horses in the race, you have a decision of whether to go with the best form in the race, back a horse who has shown little and is probably well ahead of the handicapper, or you go for something towards the bottom of the weights.

This time around, I've gone for the latter and I am willing to give Ryan's Rocket a chance. Of all three of the outsider selections placed across the Festival so far, this is probably my least confident of the lot, so if you look into the form and think this one is not for you, I totally understand.

Ryan Rocket has always been a horse for which Fergal O'Brien has spent a lot of time. At the start of the jumps season, he mentioned that this horse is very good at home and we've not seen the best of him on the track yet, which would likely come now he's jumping a fence. This season hasn't entirely gone to plan.

He started the season off with an underwhelming run at the Chepstow seasonal opener over hurdles, but he put that right when winning on his chasing debut at the same track a month later. Since then, he finished second at Ascot, before being underwhelming over today's course and distance on soft ground.

I don't think we've seen the best of this horse yet, and I cannot believe for one moment that he didn't handle the soft ground last time out, and I'm more in the camp of that something was amiss as he went from travelling well to going backwards.

He should definitely be able to stay this trip as he is a former PTP winner over 3m, which also came on yielding/soft ground. I think that Fergal O'Brien's yard hasn't been firing at many points this season, and maybe at that point, they were going through a bad patch. The race he ran in has produced a fair few Cheltenham winners in the past renewals, so it's a nice prep race for this week. Jack Hogan gets on and offsets 3lbs which is needed as he is out of the handicap.

I totally understand the betting angle for Springwell Bay, he was immense last time out and his form this season since moving over fences looks rock-solid. He was second to Jango Baie, who has since won the Arkle, and he is proven at this course and distance already. He could be in a league of his own, so the top weight might not even matter, as he's already shown he is capable of shouldering lumps of weight around, but his price isn't getting me too excited.

Firefox is another who is at the top of the market, and probably for the right reasons, as he is one of the class horses in the race. On all known hurdles form, he could win this in a canter off a mark of 150, but this is not a hurdles race and his jumping doesn't look the greatest. To add to that, Gordon Elliott isn't having the best of Festivals, and a lot of his horses are struggling up the hill, so maybe they have been undercooked.

The interesting horse and the horse who could be miles ahead of the handicapper is Nurburgring who was well-touted for the Triumph hurdle last year after being deemed an unlucky loser in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown the time before.

Given he has Grade 1 form to his name, he could be extremely well handicapped over fences, but from what we've seen, he doesn't look like a natural, maybe that has been the play so that his handicap mark has taken a dive. Joseph O'Brien is having a good week so far, and he is a crafty trainer who knows how to play the handicapper, so if this horse is on the bridle turning for home, you might as well give him the win now, but his odds also replicate what I've just said.

Caldwell Potter has been a horse who has made me look like an idiot on more than one occasion this year, and if he were to win this race then it would be crazy. I don't think this trip suits him. He was flagging in the race, which Jango Baie won with Springwell Bay as the runner-up, and last time out, he got beat by Gidleigh Park, who I think is a massively overhyped horse.

Selection: Ryan's Rocket 33/1 Each Way (5 places)

Top free bets for Cheltenham Day 3

Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

I'm not going to write too much about the actual field for this race as it's not a race I'm a big fan of, despite the fact I had Sire Du Berlais winning this for me a couple of years ago under one of the best rides I've ever seen from Barry Gerraghty. This race is a total farce, and it's all about the qualifiers. To get into this race, you must finish in the top four in a qualifier race, so it's all about not winning leading up to the Festival and getting here in peak condition and on the lowest possible handicap mark.

Paul Nolan's Maxi Mac Gold caught my eye as he won this race in 2021 with Mrs Milner and he hasn't had a runner in this race since, which is a little strange. Whenever a trainer wins a race like this, they tend to go for a second win, but Paul has shown patience as this is his first runner in the race since winning it and his horse suits a lot of the trends which go well for recent winners of the race.

This race has clearly been the goal for a long time as he managed to qualify on his second attempt at Naas just 18 days ago. They gave him a break over the Christmas period and then he returned with a runner-up finish. That could be a genius move as it means he has qualified for the race, but also his race fitness should be spot on for the big day.

The interesting angle for this race is that Paul has reached for the first time blinkers and tongue strap. The latter piece of equipment has been key for success in the last nine renewals, with eight of the winners wearing a tongue tie/strap, and only three in this lineup have that piece of equipment on.

The other two are Doddiethegreat and American Sniper, both of which don't go with the trends. The former is too old according to trends and the latter has far too many runs, so I fell onto Maxi Mac Gold.

Selection: Maxi Mac Gold 25/1 Each Way (6 places)

Cheltenham Festival 2025 betting guides

• Cheltenham 2025: Which trainers and jockeys to back
• Cheltenham 2025: Expert tips and trends to follow
• Cheltenham 2025: A beginner's guide
• Cheltenham 2025: Race-by-race schedule
• Racing form cards explained
• Top horse racing betting tips for beginners
• Horse racing 101: The best betting guide for beginners
• Betting odds explained

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