Similar to the Each Way selection thread, we're adding an outsider thread where any of our bigger-priced fancies are put up on a separate thread.
Though it seems very unlikely that when you back a big-priced horse, they'll win. But, it does happen and it happens frequently at the Cheltenham Festival. Rizzel has managed to land a few big-priced winners over the years, none other than Sire Du Berlais who was tipped up at 33/1 and Commander Of Fleet winning the Coral Cup in 2025 at advised odds of 50/1.
Ultima Handicap Chase
The Ultima Handicap Chase has been a race I've done very well in over the years, with having tipped up Corach Rambler two years on the bounce as well as getting Vintage Clouds and The Conditional. Last year was a blip, but in a race this competitive it's not a complete shock that I didn't manage to get a fifth winner in a row!
You can easily give over 50% of the runners in this race a very good chance of winning this race, which is why it's so difficult to find the winner. I was tempted to go back to my roots and give Whistle Stop Tour a chance for the Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox combination who served me so well with Corach Rambler, but I just wasn't sold on that horse. Though the trend of older horses not being too good in this race, I've decided to give Happygolucky a chance at a nice price for Mel Rowley and Johnny Burke doing the steering.
I'm going of how I tipped up Vintage Clouds to win this back in 2021 when he was an 11-year-old, and that is running well in this race previously and is now on a dangerous handicap mark due to being older and slightly out of form. This horse is a strange one because he is an old lad, but he has hardly got any miles on the clock. He has only run in 13 races, and only 9 chase races, which has seen him win three and been placed in a further three. He has had his problems over the years, and that's why he left Kim's yard and Mel Rowley has managed to get him back into the swing of things, as he returned to the track in January after a 683-day absence. Considering how long he was off the track, he ran a nice race to finish middle of the pack when he was not fancied for the run whatsoever.
The return run was over a very inadequate trip of 2m 4f, so it was clearly a pipe opener and a race to brush away the cobwebs for today's race, which has evidently been the target since Mel acquired the horse from Kim. He has run in this race twice before, on his first attempt he was 2nd to Vintage Clouds off a mark of 147 and then in 2023 he was 9th/23 but was running off 11st 11lbs and a mark of 152. Today, he runs off a mark of 140 and a weight of 11st 2lbs, so though this might seem mission impossible due to his absence, I think if he is in peak condition, he could definitely spring a surprise at the grand old age of 11, and that due to him not being well-worn.
I think the dry ground conditions will be advantageous to him and I am really quite excited to see how he runs.
Selection: Happygolucky 28/1 Each Way (6 places)
GambleAware