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A race that is on the hit list by a lot of the racing media is the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Fred Winter).
Personally, I can see why a lot of people don't like this race as it is filled with horses who are probably on the well-handicapped side of things, and connections feel like they can get a Festival win under their belt, rather than chance their arm in the bigger Juvenile Grade 1 later in the week.
Cheltenham 4:50 – Nara 16/1 (0.5pt EW, PaddyPower 6pl)
What a total minefield of a race the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle is. It's a tough race as it's very difficult to compare form between horses, as they are mostly racing against their own age group and there aren't many formlines you can intertwine, so it is one huge guessing game.
What I do know is that the Naas race that Eagle Fang won 31 days ago in the middle of February has provided the last five winners of this race, you might say that's a coincide, but that just seems far too much than that. Simply going for the winner of that race hasn't always been the best way to find the winner of this race, with three winners going on to win, with Brazil, Aramax and Band Of Outlaws doing the business in both races. However, we see horses in those races not really running to their full potential and just cruising round to get a handicap mark, which will then be exploited for the big day like Jazzy Matty did last year, with Byker back in second, who both contested the very same Naas race. I will be siding with Nara for this race.
Nara has clearly always had plenty of ability about her. She won a Listed hurdles race on her only start in France and has been tenderly handled in her two races for Henry De Bromhead since making move the over to Ireland. She was chucked straight into a Grade 3 on stable debut, she was novicey and clearly needed the run, but she didn't go unbacked that day, going off 11/2 against some decent horses who have since boosted the form. Last time out she was held up from well off the pace, never really put into the race by Mark Walsh and weakened up the run-in, but as we've seen on many occasions before with JP horses, don't read too much into it. She is currently a big price, I would like to see her get backed in, as it would symbolise that JP fancies her chances for this race, but it's ironic that she is turning up for this race when JP already has a runner from the French yard of Noel George, especially with the record of recent winners in this race from that Naas race.
I'm not going to mention too many, as you could literally talk about every horse in the race and claim they have a chance of winning, but Ndaawi has been a talking horse for this race. He is carrying top weight along with Liari from the Paul Nicholls stable, and the Elliott-trained horse has been constantly improving with each run, with his most recent odds-on victory in maiden company looking easy, and it looks like he is ready for the step up in class, and given his flat rating of 93, there should be more to come from him. Liari is by Cracksman, so will enjoy the underfoot conditions as he has already proved by winning a Listed race at Aintree when staying on powerfully to deny Knight Of Allen. Liari then went to Musselburgh and carried a penalty to victory to gain a second Listed success, so based on that he deserves to carry top weight, but no horse in the last ten years has carried 11st 12lbs to success in this race.
Batman Girac ran in the same race on stable debut as Nara did at Fairyhouse in the Grade 3. He was even further back than my selection but then went on to improve massively in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown after Christmas to finish 4th/12 just 5.25L behind the winner. He is owned by the powerful combination of Isaac Souede and Simon Munir, but Willie Mullins is still yet to win this race.
Milan Tino carries the first jockey colours of JP McManus, and he could be well-handicapped, but from what I've seen from him so far, I don't think he is. he has finished 3rd in a Grade 2 in France and was 3rd on his UK debut behind Burdett Road when going off 6/4F, he was then 3rd on his next start over today's C&D (new track) when finishing behind Sir Gino. On all known form, and finished behind the horses he has on British soil he is going to attract a lot of support, but An Bradan Feasa who was ahead of him in November was smoked by Liari up at Musselburgh, so that doesn't bode well.
I'm sure some of you will have found some gems in this race at bigger prices, so let me know in the comments.
