The third major of the season is upon us and the best golfers in the world are gearing up what is usually the toughest test of the season at the US Open. Over the years, breaking par has proven to be a huge achievement at US Opens and that will be the case again this year at Pinehurst No. 2.
The biggest challenge at Pinehurst is a) finding greens in regulation and b) staying on them. The greens are more like ice rinks at this demanding par 70 course in North Carolina which means imagination and an elite short game is a necessity to get around here with your dignity in check.
One facet of the game that won't be as important this week is performance off the tee. The fairways are relatively wide, for a US Open anyway, and the rough isn't particularly long. That means Rory McIlroy's biggest weapon is effectively redundant this week which makes it difficult to imagine his major drought ending on Sunday.
But who is set up nicely to take the crown this week? Here are our US Open betting tips.
US Open betting tips
Scottie Scheffler E/W (Ten places) – 5/2
It may look like a cop-out to simply back the best player in the world who is having a Tiger Woods-like season to win the US Open but Scottie Scheffler is so far ahead of everyone else in golf right now that 5/2 on a ten-place E/W bet is still fantastic value.
Scheffler won his fifth tournament of the season last week at Memorial, another tournament where form around the green is crucial. In the history of the game, only one other player has gone into a US Open on the back of five wins in the same season. Arnold Palmer achieved the feat twice in 1960 and 1962, winning the event in '60 and losing a play-off in '62.
Scheffler ranks highly in every stat that you'd possibly want ahead of 72 holes at Pinehurst. He leads the way for shots gained on approaches to the green and putting average, ranks 4th for scrambling, and 14th for shots gained around the green. His wedge game is exquisite and perhaps most importantly of all, he is a multiple major winner so knows what needs to be done to get over the line.
Justin Thomas E/W (Ten places) – 25/1
Justin Thomas has recaptured an element of form this season after a miserable 2023. He thoroughly enjoyed himself at the PGA Championship in his home state of Kentucky and recorded an 8th-placed finish. During that week, he ranked in 5th place for shots gained around the green which bodes well for Pinehurst.
Thomas may not have won an event this season but he has recorded four top-ten finishes, including the aforementioned 8th-place at Valhalla. His best finish came at the American Express in January where he finished in 3rd, despite shooting a score of -27.
Last weekend at Memorial, Thomas won't have been particularly pleased with his overall finish of 33rd but his iron game looked very strong all week. He ranked 1st for shots gained on approaches to the green and if he can replicate that this week then a higher finish should be almost guaranteed given how important that side of the game will be at Pinehurst.
Hideki Matsuyama top 20 finish – 7/4
Hideki Matsuyama could be worth a punt at 40/1 for the outright win given how ridiculous his short game is but we're playing it safe with a top-20 finish given his injury problems. The former Masters Champion won the Genesis Invitational earlier this year and hasn't missed a cut all season.
What makes him a great bet this week is his skills around greens. Scrambling will be the most important stat this week – nobody got up and down more times than Martin Kaymer in 2014 when he won the US Open at Pinehurst and Matsuyama ranks 6th on the PGA Tour this season in scrambling.
Additionally, Matsuyama ranks first for shots gained around the green on the PGA Tour this season, which illustrates just how imaginative and brilliant he is with a wedge in his hands. His putting is improving too, with the 32-year-old ranking in 2nd place for shots gained with the putter at Memorial last week.
Andy is tipster who has been calling Golf tournaments for several years across many different platforms. He has covered all tournaments from the Asian Tour to the Masters.
