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Dortmund v Schalke (Sat 2.30pm)
“We have to win now. We just have to win,” said Dortmund coach Peter Bosz ahead of Schalke’s visit. That has been the message from the fans too, whose biggest concern is just beating their arch-rivals.
Bosz might need to worry about his position though, having gone from making the best Bundesliga start in the club’s history with 19 points in 7 games to then slipping behind Schalke in the table last weekend after a wretched run.
Schalke were missing talisman Leon Goretzka once again against Hamburg but Domenico Tedesco’s side were still comfortable enough in their 2-0 win.
The Royal Blues are now unbeaten in their last seven games in all competitions and Tedesco’s tactical nous has been praised by punters and players alike.
His decision to move Max Meyer into a deep lying midfield role has worked out very well – a move that epitomises how Tedesco has searched to find the best system for the team that he has available.
Bosz on the other hand, with one win in nine in all competitions, has come under pressure for a lack of tactical flexibility. Dortmund showed signs of life in the first half of their defeat to Spurs but if they put in a performance on Saturday like they did after the break, they’ll lose again on Saturday.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang managed to break his eight-hour goal drought on Tuesday and he’s had a thing in the past for firing in the derby.
Even with the injuries they have to Sokratis, Christian Pulisic and Marco Reus to name three, Dortmund boast a better squad than Schalke. Still the home side’s lack of confidence might count for more on Saturday.
Raphael's Tips
- Correct score: Dortmund 1, Schalke 2 (7-1, Unibet)
- First scorer: Konoplyanka (11-1, Unibet)
- Schalke double chance (107-100, Unibet)
Monchengladbach v Bayern Munich (Sat 5.30pm)
Bayern made it nine wins out of nine since Jupp Heynckes came back with a 2-1 win over Anderlecht on Wednesday night.
Yet it was the worst performance they have given under their new/old coach, with goalkeeper Sven Ulreich coming to the rescue on several occasions.
Most worryingly for Bayern, Thiago was subbed off with a muscular injury just before half-time and is now set to be out for a couple of months. Arjen Robben also picked up an injury but that will just keep him out of this weekend’s visit to Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Gladbach sit fourth in the Bundesliga table but that doesn’t reflect how hit and miss they’ve been so far this season. They have in fact taken more points away from home (11) than they have at the Borussia Park this season.
Whilst captain Lars Stindl has been in top form for both club and country, they’ve struggled defensively whenever they’ve been put under sustained spells of pressure. As Kicker magazine pointed out this week, they miss the presence of Chelsea’s Andreas Christensen at the back since his return to Stamford Bridge in the summer.
Bayern have not always had the best of times at the Borussia Park in the past few years but even with the current injuries they’re facing, Gladbach’s defensive fragility is likely to prove more decisive than their own shortcomings at the back.
Raphael's Tips
- Correct score: Gladbach 1, Bayern 2 (7-1, Unibet)
- First scorer: Coman (15-2, Unibet)
- Bayern win (1-2, Unibet)
Munich-born Raphael Honigstein writes about football for Germany’s biggest broadsheet, Süddeutsche Zeitung, the Guardian, ESPNFC and his tips appear here thanks to our football partner at MrFixitsTips, Unibet. They're making a big splash in the UK betting scene and if you join them today you can claim up to £30 in Welcome Bonuses when you deposit and place your first bet.
Munich-born Raphael Honigstein writes about football for Germany’s biggest broadsheet, Süddeutsche Zeitung, the Guardian, ESPNFC and others. He’s a regular pundit on BT Sport’s European Football Show and the author of “Englischer Fussball: A German View of Our Beautiful Game”. His favourite food is Schnitzel, predictably.
I have to agree with both the BTTS and overs picks above however I have focussed on three other fixtures from Germany. Hope these prove helpful.
14:30 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen – Prediction 2.2
Best Bets – BTTS @4/7, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21
Key Facts
* Frankfurt have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 7 of their last 9 home league fixtures, including each of their last 4
* 13 goals were scored in those 4 most recent home fixtures
* Frankfurt have seen BTTS in each of their last 7 league fixtures. 5 of those also went over 2.5 goals
* Frankfurt are unbeaten in their last 6 league fixtures, winning 3 and drawing 3
* Frankfurt have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 13 home league fixtures
* Leverkusen have seen BTTS in 15 of their last 17 league fixtures
* Leverkusen have seen BTTS in each of their last 9 away league fixtures. 6 of those games also went over 2.5 goals
* Leverkusen have only kept 2 clean sheets in their last 25 away league fixtures
* Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last 7 league fixtures, winning 3 and drawing 4
* 4 of the last 6 meetings between these two sides saw BTTS
* Each of the last 3 meetings in Frankfurt saw BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored
Final Verdict
Goals look highly likely here and the BTTS price of 4/7 does reflect that but I’m still happy to take it with all of the stats above suggesting that BTTS has every chance of landing in this mid-table Bundesliga clash.
Both sides are in good form, so I expect an entertaining back and forth contest that is also likely to go over 2.5 goals with Leverkusen so prominent in these markets in the last 6 months.
With both sides drawing a fair share of their recent fixtures, and given their proximity in the table, a high scoring draw is my tip here although given that only 1 of their last 14 meetings has finished level, I won’t be adding the draw to my final selections.
Extra confidence in our goal picks can be taken from the last 3 meetings between these sides in Frankfurt which have produced BTTS and over 2.5 goals in all 3 contests and with Leverkusen so hot in these markets, and Frankfurt doing well at home, these are two of my more confident selections of the day.
14:30 Augsburg vs Wolfsburg – Prediction 1.1
Best Bets – BTTS @4/5, Draw @11/5
Key Facts
* Augsburg have seen BTTS in 4 of their 6 home league fixtures this season.
* Going back further, Augsburg have seen BTTS in 11 of their last 14 home league fixtures since February
* Augsburg have scored in each of their last 14 home league fixtures
* Augsburg have won only 1 of their last 7 league fixtures
* Augsburg have seen BTTS in 4 of their 6 most recent league fixtures
* Wolfsburg have seen BTTS in each of their last 8 league fixtures
* Wolfsburg have seen BTTS in each of their last 3 away league fixtures
* Wolfsburg have drawn 7 of their last 8 league fixtures including their last 3 away fixtures
* Wolfsburg have scored in 10 of their last 12 away league fixtures
* These two sides are separated by only 2 points in the league table
Final Verdict
I don’t expect a goal-fest here but recent form suggests both can score @4/5 while a share of the spoils seems the likeliest outcome with Wolfsburg developing a liking for draws with 7 in their last 8, including 3 in a row on the road, and Augsburg drawing 4 of their 12 fixtures so far this campaign.
Augsburg have slipped in recent weeks following a bright start to the season but they have scored in 14 successive home league fixtures while Wolfsburg have improved lately, drawing their last 3 on the road with BTTS in all 3. I expect the same here.
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14:30 RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Werder Bremen – Prediction 2.1
Best Bets – BTTS @4/7. BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/6
Key Facts
* RBL have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 4 of their 5 home league fixtures this season
* RBL have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 15 fixtures (all competitions)
* RBL have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 10 fixtures (all competitions)
* RBL have scored 2 goals or more in 5 of their last 6 home league fixtures and in 15 of their last 20 since September 2016
* Bremen have seen BTTS in 12 of their last 16 away league fixtures
* Bremen have scored in 19 of their last 22 away league fixtures
* Bremen scored in 16 of their 17 away fixtures last season, scoring 33 goals in the process.
* Bremen bounced back to form in their last league outing, a 4.0 home thrashing of Hannover
* RBL won 3.1 in last seasons corresponding fixture between these two sides
Final Verdict
RBL are odds-on @1/2 to collect the 3 points but Bremen can make an issue of that and I fancy goals here with BTTS and over 2.5 goals on the cards.
Given the hosts form, you would expect them to get 2 or more goals, having done so in 75% of all home league fixtures over the past year (although they did fail on the 2 occasions when I backed them to do just that!!) while they will be full of confidence following their crushing 4.1 win over Monaco on Tuesday which keeps alive their chances of an appearance in the last 16 of the Champions League, in this, their debut season in the competition.
Bremen, on the other hand, have struggled for goals this season but the return to form and fitness of the talismanic Maz Kruse, who bagged a hat-trick last weekend, gives me the confidence that Bremen can return to their goal-scoring ways on the road which saw them score in 16 out of 17 away fixtures last season.
Indeed, with RBL not keeping many clean sheets this season and Bremen scoring 4 last weekend, and having the extra days to prepare, I fancy the visitors can score and give as an entertaining contest with goals likely at both ends.
BTTS is the call @4/7 while I expect the hosts should do enough to score 2 or more and that makes the BTTS and over 2.5 goals double my second selection from Leipzig.