Wimbledon vs Carlisle
Wimbledon are in a strong position to claim victory over Carlisle on Saturday afternoon. Their home form has been excellent, with three wins from three, scoring eight goals and conceding just two. Over their last four games, Wimbledon rank highly, sitting fourth for xG ratio and sixth for xPTS.
Their non-penalty xG of 1.00 and xGA of 0.53 reflect their balanced approach, combining solid defence with effective attacking play. In terms of shots inside the box, only Walsall have been more active in recent matches.
Wimbledon’s dominance at home is further highlighted by their second-place ranking for non-penalty xG ratio. They lead League Two in several home metrics, including shots on target ratio, displaying their ability to control games at their ground.
Carlisle have been struggling, with just two wins in their last ten matches (W2-D1-L7). Their away form is particularly poor, with just one win and three losses this term. Carlisle's xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio rank them near the bottom, making Wimbledon the clear favourite for this clash.
- Best Bet: Wimbledon to win at 1.83 with William Hill
Barrow vs Morecambe
Barrow look set to win their upcoming match against Morecambe, thanks to their impressive home form and strong defence. Barrow have been dominant at home this season, securing four wins and one draw from five matches while conceding only two goals.
Their defence has been particularly tough, with few teams allowing fewer shots in the box or on target at home. Aside from a 1-1 draw against Swindon, Barrow's defence has been near impenetrable, conceding just 0.29 xGA and permitting only 2.0 shots on target per game.
In attack, Barrow have also been reliable. They rank sixth in xPTS at home and lead the league in home goal ratio. Their balanced play between attack and defence is evident, as they also rank eighth for non-penalty xG and xPTS in their last four matches.
Morecambe, in contrast, are struggling with their away form. They have yet to win on the road, managing only one draw and suffering four losses.
With just three goals scored and seven conceded, Morecambe have generated over 1.0 xG in just one of their five away matches. Given Morecambe's poor form and Barrow's strong defence, a low scoring game is expected and therefore a Barrow win with fewer than five goals seems a likely outcome.
- Best Bet: Barrow to win and under 4.5 goals at 1.88 with Betway.
Gillingham vs Accrington
Gillingham should have too much for Accrington this weekend. Their home form has been impressive, with four wins and just one loss from five matches. The sole defeat came against Grimsby, as the host won the xG battle 0.76 vs 0.1 but lost the game 1-0.
Defensively, Gillingham have been solid, conceding only two goals at home all season. They have also kept six clean sheets in 10 matches, reflecting their strong defensive backline. While their xG ratio of 1.02 versus 0.94 xGA places them fifteenth at home, they lead the league in goals ratio, showing their knack for converting opportunities into victories.
Manager Mark Bonnar has built a team that is tough to break down, conceding fewer goals than nearly any other team across the Premier League and EFL.
Despite underlying metrics pointing to a mid-table side, their strong defence and ability to capitalize on chances have pushed them higher up the table.
Accrington, meanwhile, have struggled away from home, losing all four road games this season and conceding 11 goals, averaging 2.75 per game. With just one win this season, they have conceded two or more goals in six of their nine matches. Given Accrington’s poor form, especially away from home, Gillingham are likely to come out on top and I am happy to back them to do so at these prices.
- Best Bet: Gillingham to win at 1.8 with William Hill
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AFCON 2PM
LIBERIA
To score 1+
11/10 (Sky)
Small stakes but looks like it’s worth a few quid. Obviously not many goals around in these matches normally…