This weekend’s EFL action offers plenty of excitement and intriguing matchups across the leagues, with several games providing great value for bettors.
Three standout fixtures to keep an eye on are Walsall vs Barrow, Bradford City vs Swindon Town, and Wrexham vs Cambridge.
Each game brings unique dynamics, from promotion chasers solidifying their campaigns to struggling teams battling for survival. With Walsall’s impressive home form, Swindon's tendency for high-scoring affairs, and Wrexham’s defensive fortress, there’s plenty to unpack.
Let’s dive into the stats, trends, and opportunities for each of these key clashes.
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Walsall vs Barrow
Walsall have put together an impressive record this season, with W11-D4-L3, conceding just 19 goals—an average of 1.06 per game—while scoring 1.89 goals per game. At home, their record stands at W6-D2-L1. The draws came against Crawley Town and Bromley, while their only home defeat was against Fleetwood Town.
They currently top of the league standings with 37 points from 18 matches, just ahead of second-placed Port Vale (35 points from 19 matches). Over their last five games, only MK Dons have a better record, and over the last 10, Walsall sit third, behind MK Dons and Port Vale.
In terms of recent underlying metrics, Walsall ranked 16th for expected points and 17th for non-penalty xG ratio over their last four matches but this may be due to the opposition that they have been playing, beating Port Vale last time out. However, over their last eight games, they have improved significantly, sitting ninth for xPTS and first for non-penalty xG ratio, conceding just 0.86 xGA in that span.
At home, they rank third for xPTS and fourth for xG ratio, conceding just 0.64 xGA per match. Additionally, only five teams have registered more shots on target at home than Walsall.
They host Barrow, who currently sit 13th in the division. Barrow started the season strongly, with a record of W5-D1-L1 from their first seven matches, conceding just three goals. However, since late September, they have struggled, managing only W1-D4-L6, scoring just seven goals in that period. Barrow are currently on an eight-game winless streak.
On the road, Barrow have a poor record of W2-D2-L5, scoring just five goals. Their two victories came early in the season: a 1-0 win over Harrogate in August and a 2-1 win over Grimsby in September. Since then, they have failed to score in four of their six away games.
Over their last eight matches, Barrow rank 20th for xPTS, averaging just 0.68 xG per game. Away from home, they remain defensively compact, with 0.66 xG and 0.88 xGA, and only five sides have conceded fewer shots on target on the road.
This is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair, but Walsall’s consistency at home gives them the edge. They have scored in every home match this season and have found the net at least twice in seven of nine home fixtures. This should be enough to edge Barrow and keep Walsall firmly in the promotion race to League One.
- Best Bet: Walsall to win at 1.91 with Quinn Bet
Bradford City vs Swindon Town
Bradford City entered the season as an outside contender for promotion according to some pundits, but they have struggled to live up to those expectations. Currently sitting 11th in the table with 25 points, their record stands at W6-D7-L5 losses, with their matches averaging 2.33 goals per game.
Bradford have found the net in 15 of their 18 matches this season, averaging 1.28 goals per 90 minutes, but defensively, they have kept just three clean sheets, conceding an average of 1.06 goals per game. This has resulted in both teams scoring in 14 of their 18 fixtures.
Their opponents, Swindon Town, are in a desperate battle to avoid relegation from the Football League. Sitting 22nd, Swindon have a record of W3-D7-L9, conceding 33 goals across 19 matches—an average of 1.74 goals per game. Although they managed a 3-1 victory over Fleetwood Town in their last outing, their season-long struggles are evident.
They have kept just three clean sheets in 19 fixtures but have found the net in 14 matches. Notably, Swindon have scored in eight of their last nine games, with both teams scoring in eight of those matches.
The likelihood of both teams finding the net in this match is high, as clean sheets have been rare for both sides. Across their combined 37 matches, there have been just six clean sheets (16%). Based on this, the implied probability for both teams to score is 84%, translating to rough odds of 1.19, yet the market offers odds of 1.91, which provides value.
Swindon’s away record is slightly better than their league position suggests. They rank 11th for xPTS and 15th for non-penalty xG ratio on the road. However, defensively, they struggle, with only two teams posting a higher xGA away from home, and only three sides conceding more shots inside the box than Swindon.
Since appointing Ian Holloway as manager, Swindon have played five matches with a record W1-D1-L3. These games have been high-scoring affairs, averaging 4.2 goals per match.
All five have seen at least 2.5 goals, and four of the five have seen both team’s score. During this period, Swindon have scored three, zero, two, 2two, and one goal in their games while conceding an average of 2.6 goals per match.
With both teams showing consistent defensive vulnerabilities and a strong ability to find the net, this fixture is likely to see goals at both ends.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score 1.91at Coral
Wrexham vs Cambridge
Wrexham continue their impressive climb up the league as they aim for back-to-back promotions into the Championship. They currently sit second, level on points with Wycombe Wanderers and one point ahead of Birmingham City. With their current form and consistency, they look well-positioned to secure at least a playoff spot.
Their home record is outstanding, with W9-D1-L0, having conceded just four goals in total. No team in the league has conceded fewer goals than Wrexham this season. Their sole home draw came in a 0-0 stalemate against Huddersfield.
Wrexham sit sixth for home xPTS, although they rank 11th in non-penalty xG ratio due to a relatively low average xG of 1.14. However, their defensive solidity is undeniable—only five teams have conceded fewer shots on target, and they have kept five consecutive clean sheets at home. Of the four goals conceded at home, two came in the opening game of the season, a 3-2 victory over Wycombe. Since then, they have allowed just two goals in nine home fixtures.
Their opponents, Cambridge, are struggling this season with a record of W4-D4-L10, conceding an average of 1.61 goals per game. After failing to win any of their first nine matches, Cambridge managed three consecutive victories but have since won just once in their last six games.
Their away form has been particularly poor, with just W1-D1-L7, scoring only five goals while conceding 18. They have conceded two or more goals in six of their nine away games and have kept just two clean sheets on the road.
Cambridge’s struggles in front of goal make it difficult to see them breaching Wrexham’s defence. The visitors rank 20th for away xPTS and 22nd for non-penalty xG ratio, averaging just 0.59 xG on the road. Over the last four matches, they rank 15th for xPTS and 17th for non-penalty xG ratio, generating just 0.63 xG while conceding 0.82 xGA on average.
Although there are signs of slight improvement, their attacking output remains poor.
Wrexham’s stellar home record and defensive strength make them strong favourites in this fixture. While the odds of 1.6 for a Wrexham win are slightly short, taking Wrexham on a -0.75 Asian handicap at 1.74 provides a solid alternative and offers good value for this matchup.
- Best Bet: Wrexham -0.75AH at 1.74 at Unibet
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