This weekend’s football action offers some intriguing matchups across the leagues, with plenty of opportunities for enthusiasts to find value, especially when considering our EFL betting tips.
Salford City host Fleetwood Town in a clash of contrasting form, as Salford look to continue their impressive defensive run, while Fleetwood aim to find consistency on the road.
Meanwhile, Walsall take on MK Dons in a game that pits one of the league's form teams against a struggling side trying to rediscover their promotion credentials. Lastly, Bristol Rovers face a tough challenge against a confident Barnsley side, with both teams looking to overcome defensive issues.
In this article, we’ll break down the key stats, trends, and form for each of these fixtures, identifying where the best value might lie for bettors.
Salford vs Fleetwood Town
Salford return to League Two action after an FA Cup drubbing, losing 8-0 to Manchester City. However, this result should not be overanalysed, as City have the quality to dominate any opponent on their day. S
alford’s league form has been exceptional, winning seven of their last eight games and keeping clean sheets in all seven victories. During this run, they have conceded just one goal, with a non-penalty xGA of only 0.63 and an average of just 4.5 shots conceded in the box per game. Their xG from open play over the last eight games stands at an impressive 0.36, showcasing their defensive solidity.
At home, Salford have been equally strong, with a record of W8-D0-L4, conceding just nine goals in total. However, four of those goals came against top four sides Walsall and Port Vale. Their only other slip-up came against bottom-placed Carlisle in November, but even then, they were the better side. Salford dominated the xG (0.92 vs. 0.67), registered 19 shots to Carlisle’s seven, and had four shots on target to Carlisle’s one. Carlisle scored the only goal of the game from their sole shot on target, which came from a corner.
Fleetwood, currently 16th in the table, have been inconsistent all season. They started strongly with a W4-D4-L1 record in their opening nine games, but since mid-October, they have managed just two wins in 13 matches, both coming at home. On the road, Fleetwood’s record is W3-D2-L5, and they have failed to win any of their last five away games, conceding 10 goals and scoring only three.
While they did pull off an impressive 6-2 win away at league leaders Walsall, their other victories have come against bottom-placed Carlisle and mid-table Cheltenham. Against the league’s top seven sides, Fleetwood have struggled, with a record of W1-D1-L3 in those fixtures. Over the last eight matches, they rank 14th for xPTS and 20th for away xPTS.
Salford’s odds for a win appear generous, likely influenced by their heavy FA Cup loss to Manchester City. For context, Salford were priced at 1.84 to beat Cheltenham, a side ranked two places higher than Fleetwood in the table. With Salford available at over even money for a victory on Saturday, they look like excellent value given their current league form.
- Best Bet: Salford to win at 2.05 with 888 Sport
Walsall vs MK Dons
Walsall are in sensational form, having set a new club record with eight consecutive victories. They have not lost a league match since 1st October, a 15-game unbeaten run that includes 11 wins. During this stretch, they have conceded just 11 goals. At home, Walsall boast an impressive record of W10-D2-L1, averaging 2.3 goals per game.
They have scored in 21 of their 24 matches this season and have found the net in every home fixture. Remarkably, the Saddlers have scored at least twice in 10 of their 13 home games.
Over their last eight matches, Walsall rank second for xPTS and first for non-penalty xG ratio, averaging 1.88 non-penalty xG per game. No team has registered more shots inside the box than Walsall during this period. They now host an MK Dons side sitting in mid-table, a far cry from preseason expectations when the Dons were tipped for promotion.
MK Dons are just six points off the playoffs but are enduring a poor run of form, having collected only four points from the last 21 available. They have won just one of their last six matches. On the road, their record stands at W4-D1-L4, with games averaging 3.78 goals per match. While they have found the net in their last six away games, they have also conceded in all nine of their away fixtures this season.
The Dons’ recent away wins lack context, as they have beaten lower-ranked sides such as Morecambe, Harrogate, Grimsby, and Chesterfield—all teams sitting in the bottom half of the table. Against top eight opposition this season, they have struggled, returning a poor record of W1-D2-L6. Over the last four games, MK Dons rank 23rd for xPTS, conceding an average non-penalty xG of 1.38. Overall, they rank 12th for xPTS and 11th for non-penalty xG ratio.
Walsall are flying and, given the visitors’ inability to keep a clean sheet and Walsall’s excellent attacking form, the hosts should have little trouble scoring at least twice in this matchup.
- Best Bet: Walsall to score over 1.5 goals at 1.85 Unibet
Bristol Rovers vs Barnsley
Barnsley travel to Bristol Rovers this weekend, with the hosts struggling to find form this season. The Gas have managed just seven wins from 24 league matches and sit five points above the relegation zone, though Crawley, just below them, have a game in hand. Defensively, Rovers have been poor, with only five teams conceding more goals this season.
They have let in goals in 14 of their 24 games overall and 10 of their 14 home fixtures, conceding an average of 1.57 goals per game at home. However, the hosts have now found the net in 11 of 14 games when playing at the Memorial Stadium.
Recently, Bristol Rovers have ranked bottom for xPTS over the last eight fixtures and 21st for non-penalty xG ratio in the same period. Defensively, they have conceded an xG of 1.33 per game and no team has allowed more shots inside the box during this time.
They face a Barnsley side enjoying a solid season with 12 wins from 25 games and an average of 2.88 goals per game. On the road, Barnsley have an impressive record of W8-D1-L3, with their three losses coming when they failed to score against Wrexham, Huddersfield, and Stevenage.
Wrexham and Huddersfield are both in the top four, while Stevenage have the seventh-best home record, conceding just 12 goals at home this season.
Barnsley have conceded in 10 of their 12 away games but have scored two or more goals in eight of those matches. Against teams sitting 15th or lower in the table, Barnsley have been dominant on the road, with a record of W6-D1-L0. In these games, they have scored at least two goals in six matches. Over the last eight games, Barnsley rank 15th for xPTS with an xG of 1.01 and a non-penalty xGA of 1.22.
Bristol Rovers recently appointed Inigo Calderon as manager following the sacking of Matt Taylor, who lasted just a year in charge. Calderon, previously with Brighton’s under-18s, has overseen four games so far, including an FA Cup loss to Ipswich Town (3-0). In his tenure, Rovers have conceded three or more goals in three of his four games, with the only clean sheet and victory coming against Cambridge United, who sit 23rd in the league.
Barnsley’s attacking strength and Rovers’ defensive vulnerabilities make this an uphill battle for the hosts, with Barnsley looking well-positioned to capitalise, but the visitors have struggled for clean sheets with just two on the road this season.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with William Hill
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