Middlesbrough vs Preston
Middlesbrough started the season well, winning two of their opening four games and suffering just one defeat. They dropped points at home to Portsmouth in a 2-2 draw despite winning the xG battle 2.25 vs 0.68 and the shot 29 vs 5, with Pompey scoring twice from just three shots on target.
The match at Derby followed a similar pattern, with Boro winning on xG 1.83 vs 0.44, the shot count 20 vs three, with the Rams scoring with their only shot on target.
The hosts sit seventh, but their underlying performances suggest they should be higher in the table with an xPTS total that would put them second, as would the non-penalty xG and shots-in-the-box ratios.
Unfortunately for Boro, they have missed chances. No side in the Championship has had more shots, with Boro averaging 1.59 xG across their opening four games.
Preston are already on their third manager this season. Ryan Lowe left after the opening game defeat and then Mike Marsh lasted a further two games. Paul Heckingbottom has now taken the reins, and so far, he has overseen two games, a 1-0 win over Luton despite losing the xG battle 1.63 vs 0.27, the shot count 16 vs five, and the shot on target count four vs two, plus a defeat to Oxford where conceded three goals.
North End have won once in their last 10 Championship games, scoring just twice and conceding 19.
Backing Boro to win the game at odds of 1.5 is too low, but we can boost this by adding over 1.5 goals for the hosts and under 1.5 goals for Preston, which will give us odds of 1.90 with BetVictor.
- Middlesbrough win, Middlesbrough over 1.5 goals & Preston under 1.5 goals at 1.90 with BetVictor
Plymouth vs Sunderland
Wayne Rooney’s Plymouth are in danger of slipping into League One. I have some sympathy for him as this is a poor group of players, but his record over his time at Birmingham and now Plymouth is W3-D6-L12, a win rate of just 14%.
An opening day defeat at Sheffield Wednesday where the game ended 4-0, but the Owls had 25 shots, 17 shots in the box with seven shots on target and could have easily won by more.
Rooney was very critical of his players after the game, which is a dangerous approach. Argyle did then manage draws with QPR and Hull, but on closer inspection, the Rangers’ result was fortunate, as they lost on xG 1.41 vs 0.15. They have now lost the xG battle and shot count in three of their four games this term, and that should have alarm bells ringing for Rooney and the fans.
Sunderland have a perfect record this term, with just one goal conceded and three clean sheets. The visitors sit on top of the table, third on xPTS, and second on non-penalty xG ratio. Their excellent defensive start to the season is further backed up—no side has conceded fewer shots on target or shots in the box than them this term, and only Leeds Utd have a better xGA.
Plymouth have won six of their last 28 games in the Championship, keeping just six clean sheets, so you would anticipate that the visitors will score here. Argyle have scored two more goals in a match on just two occasions from their last 22 Championship matches.
- Sunderland to win at 1.83 with Coral
Sheffield Wednesday vs QPR
The season started brightly for the Owls as they beat Plymouth comfortably on the opening day of the season by a score line of 4-0. However, that’s where the positive story ends for them this season, as they have now lost three consecutive matches, conceding nine and failing to score.
The three defeats have seen them also lose the xG battle in each as they have only generated an average of 0.22 xG over these three matches, with a total of 18 shots and just five shots on target. It is therefore no surprise to see the Owls down in twentieth for xPTS and 19th for non-penalty xG ratio.
Danny Rohl has done an excellent job since he joined, leading the club from almost certain relegation to surviving with a game to spare last term. They won nine of their last 20 matches, losing just seven, including a run of six games with a defeat at the back end of the season to clinch survival. I expect them to improve, but I believe the market is overrated them.
Rangers are in a similar position with a new manager, changing the fortunes of the club. Marti Cifuentes is doing a good job at Loftus Road. They have started this season well despite an opening day defeat to West Brom but then picked up a good point at Sheffield United, followed by a win over newly relegated Luton.
My rankings have the Super Hoops sixth on xPTS and tenth on non-penalty xG ratio.
The 5.5 shots per match is the highest in the division, while they have the best record in the Championship for shots on target ratio. Defensively, they have been strong, with an average of only 0.7 xGA per game.
They were good value for their victory over Luton, winning the xG battle 1.08 vs 0.54. However, they were unfortunate not to claim three points at Plymouth, as they won on xG 1.41 vs 0.15.
This team is improving, and I expect them to continue doing so against Sheffield Wednesday. Despite believing that Rangers are likelier to win the game, we can de-risk our bet and take them on the Asian Handicap with a +0.25 start. This means we only need them to avoid defeat to profit.
- QPR +0.25AH at 1.9 with Bet365
