As the business end of the EFL season approaches, every point counts — whether you are chasing promotion or battling to avoid the drop. This weekend throws up a trio of crucial fixtures with plenty at stake across League One and League Two.
In League One, in-form Charlton Athletic look to continue their charge toward the automatic promotion spots as they travel to a rejuvenated but still vulnerable Peterborough side. The Addicks have been rock-solid defensively, but Posh are unbeaten in six and fighting to secure their League One status.
Over in League Two, promotion hopefuls Notts County host fellow play-off contenders Crewe Alexandra in what promises to be a tightly contested affair between two sides desperate to regain momentum after recent dips in form.
Meanwhile, Port Vale will be confident of strengthening their top-seven push as they welcome struggling Morecambe, who are in serious danger of slipping out of the Football League after a torrid run on the road.
We break down each clash and highlight the best value bets heading into a pivotal weekend in the EFL.
Port Vale vs Morecambe
Port Vale are firmly in the hunt for a League Two play-off spot. They currently sit 6th, but with just four points separating them from 8th-placed Crewe Alexandra, the race is tight. At home, Vale have been solid, boasting a record of W9-D6-L2 and conceding just 14 goals — only three sides have conceded fewer on home soil this season.
Only Bradford, Walsall, and AFC Wimbledon have picked up more points at home, but all three have played two more home games than Vale. Over their last eight home fixtures, only Bradford have collected more points than Vale (W5-D3-L0), with Vale conceding just four goals in that stretch.
In terms of underlying numbers, Port Vale rank 8th for xPTS and 6th for non-penalty xG ratio over their last eight league games, allowing just 0.84 xG per match. While recent overall form has been somewhat patchy — one win in five — they have only lost once in that span, against in-form Colchester United. At home, however, they have been strong, winning five of their last six, with the only exception a 0-0 draw against Harrogate Town. They dominated that game with 62% possession, a 0.89–0.30 xG advantage, 14 shots to seven (four on target), and 10 shots inside the box to Harrogate’s three.
Port Vale’s only two home defeats this season came against Walsall and Doncaster, who sit 1st and 4th respectively. Against teams 10th or lower in the table, their record reads W12-D1-L2. At home to bottom-half teams, they have kept five clean sheets in 10 matches.
Morecambe, meanwhile, are in serious danger of dropping out of the Football League. Their overall record is W8-D6-L23, with 56 goals conceded (1.51 per game) and just 0.89 goals scored per match. Their away form is even worse: W4-D2-L13, losing their last seven on the road and scoring just two goals in that period. Their last away win came on Boxing Day against bottom-side Carlisle.
Morecambe have kept just two clean sheets away from home and failed to score in 10 of their 19 away games. Against teams 13th and above on the road, they have lost all nine games without scoring a single goal. Over their last eight league matches, they rank 20th for xPTS and 24th (last) for non-penalty xG ratio.
While Port Vale are rightly heavy favourites, the straight win odds are too short to back on their own. A better angle is Port Vale to win & under 4.5 goals.
Morecambe have lost 13 away games this season, with those defeats averaging just 1.77 total goals. They have scored just three goals in those 13 losses (0.23 per game). Seven of Port Vale’s nine home wins have gone under 4.5 goals, with only two games seeing the away side score more than once. Given Morecambe’s dismal scoring record, that looks unlikely to happen here, making Vale to win & under 4.5 goals the value play.
- Best Bet: Port Vale to win and under 4.5 goals at 1.80 with Skybet
Notts County vs Crewe Alexandra
A crucial clash in League Two sees 5th-placed Notts County host 8th-placed Crewe Alexandra. Crewe are just one point behind 7th-placed Colchester and the final play-off spot, while Notts County are only four points ahead of Crewe and, more significantly, just two points off the automatic promotion places.
However, neither side comes into this game in good form. Notts County have collected just eight points from their last eight games — only three teams in the league have picked up fewer. Crewe have managed only one point more in that same period, with nine points from eight matches.
Despite both pushing for promotion, momentum has stalled for both sides. Notts County’s home record stands at W9-D4-L5. They have failed to score just three times at home all season and have kept eight clean sheets, with only 39% of their home games going over 2.5 goals. However, recent struggles have seen them keep just one clean sheet in their last eight league matches — a 2-0 win over Grimsby.
In fact, County have kept just one clean sheet in their last four home matches, and two of their last three clean sheets came against bottom-two sides Morecambe and Carlisle. Removing those results, it is just two clean sheets in their last seven at home. They have also lost their last two at Meadow Lane — 2-1 defeats to Chesterfield and Barrow — and have managed just two wins in their last eight league games overall.
Over the last eight matches, Notts County rank 10th for xPTS and 11th for non-penalty xG ratio. They have generated 1.30 non-penalty xG per game — the 7th-highest in the division — but have also conceded 1.14 non-penalty xG, placing them 11th. They have allowed seven big chances in that stretch, with only eight teams conceding more.
Crewe’s form has also been shaky. They have won just six of their last 22 matches, though they have only lost five in that time, showing a tendency for draws. Their away record this season is W6-D9-L4, with six clean sheets and only four games where they failed to score on the road. Three of those clean sheets came against teams currently in the bottom six.
Against teams above them in the table, Crewe have played nine away matches, keeping just two clean sheets but scoring in seven of those. Over the last eight matches, they rank 9th for both xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio. Their 1.39 non-penalty xG per game is the fourth-highest in the division over that span, and only two sides have created more big chances.
Across the last eight games for both teams (16 matches in total), there have been just three clean sheets and only five occasions where either side failed to score. Both teams to score has landed in each of the last four Crewe games and each of the last four Notts County home matches.
Both sides are chasing promotion and will be pushing for all three points. With recent defensive fragility and solid attacking metrics, goals at both ends seem likely. Both teams to score has solid statistical backing and is currently available at 1.75, which looks like a value play in this match-up.
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.75 with Ladbrokes
Peterborough vs Charlton Athletic
Charlton are on a remarkable run and could break into the automatic promotion spots, now just five points behind both Wycombe and Wrexham. No side in League One has earned more points over the last eight games than Charlton — and none have conceded fewer goals than the Addicks in that period.
Over their last 20 League One matches, Charlton boast an impressive W13-D5-L2 record, conceding just 13 goals — an average of 0.65 per game — and keeping clean sheets in 10 of those 20 fixtures. In the past eight matches, they rank 3rd for xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio, while conceding just 0.53 non-penalty xGA per game, the lowest in the division. Even more impressive, their open-play xGA is just 0.29, with only three big chances conceded across those eight matches.
Their away form has been more inconsistent overall (W7-D4-L7), but they have lost just twice in their last 10 on the road — one of those a narrow 1-0 defeat to league leaders Birmingham. That match saw very few chances, with Birmingham edging the xG 0.64 to 0.35, and just three shots on target in total. Charlton actually had the game’s only big chance, but it was Birmingham’s Jay Stansfield who scored the winner with a low-xG (0.05) strike.
Charlton’s defensive stability is becoming a major strength, and they will aim to maintain that in their trip to face Peterborough.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have endured a poor season overall. Before their recent six-game unbeaten run, they held a dismal W8-D6-L16 record, having conceded a hefty 57 goals (1.9 per game). That said, they have recently shown signs of recovery, going unbeaten in their last six (W3-D3), conceding just three goals during that stretch.
They now sit 18th, six points above 21st-placed Burton, and with a game in hand, they are looking increasingly likely to avoid relegation. Of the seven goals they have scored in this unbeaten run, three came in a 3-1 home win over bottom-side Shrewsbury. They have also kept three clean sheets in those six games, and across the last four, Peterborough rank 6th for xPTS and 8th for non-penalty xG ratio. Their open-play xGA over those four games is a strong 0.35, showing significant improvement defensively.
Given both sides’ recent defensive resilience, this could be a low-scoring affair. Charlton are pushing hard for automatic promotion and will be eager to take something from this game. Peterborough likely need one or two more points to guarantee safety and may settle for a draw if the game is tight.
Despite three wins in their last six, Peterborough’s improvement comes with context — they have faced struggling Shrewsbury and Cambridge, both in the bottom three. Though wins at Huddersfield and a draw with Wycombe were more impressive, their overall record against teams in the top 10 is concerning: W1-D3-L10, with most of their points coming against the bottom eight sides.
While Charlton draw no bet was a strong option earlier in the week, odds have dropped to 1.70, making it a bit short. Instead, Charlton double chance & under 3.5 goals at 1.93 offers better value in what looks like a tightly contested, low-scoring match.
Best Bet: Charlton Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals at 1.93 at Ladbrokes
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