This weekend’s EFL betting tips see action in League Two and League One offer some intriguing matchups with clear opportunities for value in the betting markets.
In League Two, Walsall take on Tranmere, with the league leaders looking to extend their dominant form against an inconsistent Rovers side struggling to find their footing on the road.
Meanwhile, over in League One, Shrewsbury Town face Huddersfield Town in a classic battle of opposites: the struggling Shrews fighting to stay afloat against a red-hot Huddersfield team riding a wave of confidence. Finally, Northampton Town host Barnsley in a clash where the visitors’ impressive away form is expected to shine against a Northampton side that has struggled against stronger opposition.
From Walsall’s home dominance to Huddersfield’s relentless consistency and Barnsley’s attacking firepower, this preview dives into the stats, form, and key betting angles for each game. Let’s break down each match and find the best bets for the weekend!
Walsall vs Tranmere
Walsall currently sit top of League Two, holding a commanding 10-point lead over Crewe Alexandra with a game in hand. Their season record is an impressive W16-D4-L3, with only 20 goals conceded across 23 matches. At home, their performance has been equally outstanding, boasting a record of W9-D2-L1.
Interestingly, their sole home defeat was a surprising 6-2 loss to Fleetwood Town, who currently sit 16th in the league.
Despite that anomaly, Walsall have averaged 2.08 goals scored per home game. On the defensive side, they have conceded an average of 1.17 goals per home game, but if the six goals conceded to Fleetwood are excluded, this drops to just 0.73 goals per game. At home, they have claimed victories over promotion-chasing sides such as Notts County, Doncaster, and Bradford.
In their last four matches, Walsall lead the league in xPTS and have the best xG ratio, averaging 1.23 xG for and just 0.46 xGA. For home form, they rank second in xPTS.
Their opponents, Tranmere Rovers, have been inconsistent this season, with a record of W6-D7-L10. They have scored only 17 goals in the league, averaging 0.74 goals per game on the road. Their away form is particularly poor, with W2-D2-L7, scoring just seven goals. They have lost their last five away matches by an aggregate score of 12-2 and conceded two or more goals in four of those games. Their only clean sheet on the road came in a 0-0 draw with Port Vale, but they have since conceded in their last 10 away matches.
Tranmere currently sit 20th in the league, five points above the relegation zone. While they managed a home win against Walsall earlier in the season, their away record against top-half teams stands at W1-D2-L3, with their only win coming against 12th-placed Bromley. In terms of away expected points, they rank 22nd. Over the last four matches, they sit 19th for xPTS, averaging just 0.87 xG but conceding 1.56 xGA.
Defensively, Tranmere have been vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.91 goals per game on the road. Over the last four matches, only two sides have allowed more touches in their penalty box, and only Harrogate have conceded more shots in the box.
With Walsall’s strong home record and Tranmere’s defensive struggles, eight of Walsall’s nine home wins have seen fewer than 4.5 goals, a trend that could be backed at 1.88 odds for this game.
- Best Bet: Walsall win and under 4.5 goals at 1.88 with Betway
Shrewsbury Town vs Huddersfield Town
Shrewsbury have endured a challenging season, losing 15 of their 24 matches and managing just four wins overall. At home, their record stands at W3-D2-L7, with only 12 goals scored. Their games have been close affairs, averaging just 2.75 goals per game, but their victories have been sporadic. They have secured wins over Bolton, Birmingham, and Lincoln at home, with the Birmingham game being Gareth Ainsworth’s first home match in charge.
In that Birmingham match, Shrewsbury managed to win the xG battle (1.92 to 1.53), but their overall performance highlighted their weaknesses. They had just 20% possession, lost the shot count 12-7, and managed only five shots in the box compared to Birmingham’s nine. Despite flashes of resilience, Shrewsbury sit 22nd in the table with just 17 points, three points above rock-bottom Burton and eight points adrift of safety.
Over their last eight matches, Shrewsbury rank 19th for xPTS and 18th for non-penalty xG ratio, generating just 0.63 xG per game. Their overall xPTS for the season also place them 22nd, matching their league position. They have won just once in their last eight matches, though they have managed to avoid defeat in three of their last four, picking up points against Blackpool, Northampton, and Wigan – all sides in the bottom half of the table.
In contrast, Huddersfield are in red-hot form, and no side has collected more points than them over the last 10 or 15 fixtures. Over the last 15 matches, Huddersfield boast an unbeaten record of W10-D5-L0, conceding just eight goals during that run. For the season, they sit at W14-D5-L5, with their only rough patch coming in a six-game spell earlier in the campaign where they lost five times. Since early October, however, they have been exceptional, amassing 35 points from 15 games.
Huddersfield are fourth for xPTS this season and rank highly in recent form: sixth for xPTS over the last eight matches and fourth over the last 12. In their last eight games, they have averaged 1.01 xG while conceding just 0.6 xGA, and no side has recorded more shots in the box during this period.
Earlier this week, Huddersfield displayed their quality with an emphatic 1-0 win at Wycombe, a side sitting just two points behind league leaders Birmingham. That result highlights their strength and consistency, even against tough opposition.
While this matchup could be a tight game, Huddersfield’s form and quality should prove too much for a struggling Shrewsbury side. Shrewsbury have won just four times all season and lost four of their nine matches under Gareth Ainsworth. Huddersfield, meanwhile, are in top form and represent excellent value in this fixture. Expect the odds for Huddersfield to shorten before Saturday, so they are a solid bet at current prices.
- Best Bet: Huddersfield win at 1.75 with William Hill
Northampton Town vs Barnsley
Northampton are having a tough season, sitting 18th in the league with 26 points, just six points above the relegation zone. They have managed only six wins while conceding 39 goals, with only four sides in the division conceding more. At home, their record stands at W4-D3-L4, scoring just 11 goals. All their victories have come against teams sitting eighth or lower, while their record against top-half sides at home is W1-D0-L4, with 13 goals conceded and just two scored.
Their only home win against a top-half side was a narrow victory over Leyton Orient in mid-October. That game was fortunate for Northampton, as they scored with their only shot on target in a match where both teams struggled to create chances, producing a combined xG of 1.73.
Northampton’s recent form offers little encouragement. Over the last four matches, they rank 22nd for xPTS, the same as their position over the last eight games. During this period, they have generated just 0.5 xG per match while conceding 1.1 xGA, placing them 23rd for xG ratio.
Their last home game ended in a 0-0 draw with Stevenage, but before that, they suffered a humiliating 5-0 loss to Cheltenham. Now, they face a Barnsley side brimming with confidence and in excellent form.
Barnsley have won their last four league matches and have been strong on the road, with an impressive away record of W8-D1-L3. They have conceded an average of 1.08 goals per game away, keeping just two clean sheets from 12 away fixtures. However, they have scored in nine of those games, netting two or more goals in eight of their 12 away matches.
Over the last eight matches, Barnsley rank 10th for xPTS, generating 1.0 non-penalty xG per game. They also rank seventh for away xPTS, and only Birmingham and Wycombe Wanderers have collected more points on the road this season. Additionally, Barnsley are among the league’s top away scorers, with only three teams netting more away goals than the Yorkshire side.
Barnsley to win is priced at 1.75, and given their away form and Northampton’s struggles, this looks like a solid bet.
For a higher-risk option, Barnsley to win and both teams to score is available at 3.75. Barnsley have conceded in nine of their 12 away games, making it plausible that Northampton could get on the scoresheet.
However, given Barnsley’s superior away form and Northampton’s poor record against top-half teams, the safer option is backing Barnsley to win outright, making it the standout bet for this match.
- Best Bet: Barnsley win at 1.75 with Coral or Ladbrokes
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