As we head into another exciting weekend of football, three key fixtures stand out for betting opportunities.
Norwich City host Derby County, with the Canaries aiming to extend their strong home form against a Derby side struggling on the road. Bradford City welcome Harrogate, as the hosts push for a playoff spot while their opponents battle to stay clear of the relegation zone. Meanwhile, Notts County take on Morecambe, with County looking to strengthen their automatic promotion hopes against one of the league’s worst away sides.
Each of these matchups presents strong betting angles, from home dominance to goal trends and expected performance metrics. In this article, we break down the key stats, form, and best-value bets for the weekend’s action. Let’s dive in!
EFL betting Tips
Norwich City vs Derby County
Norwich City host Derby County on Saturday, aiming to continue their strong home form. At Carrow Road, Norwich have been impressive, recording W7-D5-L2, while averaging 2.57 goals per game and conceding 1.36. They hold the seventh-best home record in the league and have only failed to score in one of 14 home games, a 2-0 loss to Bristol City. Their only other home defeat came against Burnley.
Norwich have picked up form at Carrow Road, going W5-D1-L1 in their last seven matches, scoring 21 goals. However, defensive frailties remain an issue, as they have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five home games. Only Leeds and Middlesbrough have more home xPTS points than Norwich, who rank third and second for home xG ratio this season. Against teams ranked 11th or lower, Norwich’s home record is W7-D1-L0, scoring at least two goals in each victory.
Derby, meanwhile, are struggling and edging closer to a relegation battle. They rank 19th in away xPTS and have lost seven consecutive Championship away matches. Their overall away record stands at W1-D4-L10, scoring just 13 goals. Their only clean sheet away from home came in a 0-0 draw at Burnley.
Since a bright start to the season, Derby’s form has declined, with a W3-D6-L12 record since early October. Against teams ranked 12th or higher, they have a W1-D1-L7 record, with their only win coming in a 2-1 victory over Coventry, where they scored twice from just 0.3 xG.
Derby have won their last two games, beating Swansea 5-1 and Watford 1-0, showing signs of improvement. However, given Norwich’s dominance at home and Derby’s away struggles, a Norwich win looks like a strong bet.
- Best Bet: Norwich win at 1.73 with Coral
Bradford City vs Harrogate
Bradford are in a strong position to solidify their playoff push as they host a struggling Harrogate side. Currently sitting in the final playoff spot, Bradford have benefited from Salford’s dip in form and boast an impressive W10-D3-L1 home record, the second-best in the league. They have conceded just 10 goals at home, with only AFC Wimbledon allowing fewer.
Despite a 1-0 away loss to AFC Wimbledon last time out, Bradford have been dominant at home, losing just once all season at Valley Parade, a 1-0 defeat to Doncaster back in October. They have lost the xG battle only three times at home, averaging 1.51 xG per match while conceding just 0.82. Importantly, they have found the net in 12 of their 14 home games, including a 3-0 win over league leaders Walsall in their last outing at home.
Harrogate, on the other hand, have struggled on the road, with a W3-D4-L8 away record. They have failed to score in six of their 15 away games and managed just three clean sheets, all coming against teams ranked 13th or lower. Against team’s 12th and above, they have lost all seven matches, scoring just twice.
While Harrogate have kept games tight against better sides, losing 1-0 to Doncaster and Notts County, their underlying numbers remain poor. They sit 18th in xG ratio on the road, conceding an average of 1.56 xG per match, while their attack has produced just 0.87 goals per away game—one of the lowest in the league.
Bradford’s home form should prove too strong, and given Harrogate’s defensive vulnerabilities, it’s highly likely this game will see at least two goals scored. With Bradford scoring at home consistently and Harrogate struggling against top-half teams, a Bradford win with over 1.5 goals looks the best bet.
- Best Bet: Bradford win and over 1.5 goals at 2.05 with Boylesports
Notts County vs Morecambe
Notts County currently sit third in the league, occupying one of the automatic promotion spots, but their position is far from secure as they hold just a two-point lead over AFC Wimbledon, who also have a game in hand. Their season record stands at W14-D8-L6, with their home form proving solid defensively. At Meadow Lane, they have conceded just eight goals, the lowest in the division, while scoring 18. Their home record reads W8-D3-L3, with seven clean sheets in 13 matches, failing to score in only three games.
Against bottom-half teams, County have been exceptional, recording W10-D6-L1, with their only loss coming against Gillingham in mid-September. In that match, they were unlucky, winning the xG battle 1.98 to 0.67 but failing to take their chances.
Recent form has been strong, with seven wins in their last nine games, their only defeat in this stretch coming against league leaders Walsall, along with a 1-1 home draw against Bromley, who sit mid-table. The Bromley result was also unfortunate, as County won the xG battle 1.68 to 1.04, with Bromley scoring from one of just two shots on target. Over the last four matches, County rank in the top four for xPTS, while over the last eight games, they sit second. Their non-penalty xG ratio over this period ranks fourth, highlighting their consistent performances.
They welcome a struggling Morecambe side, who sit 23rd in the league with a W6-D5-L18 record. They have struggled in attack, scoring just 27 goals all season, with only 13 of those coming away from home. Their away form reads W4-D2-L10, but their goal-scoring issues are clear—they have lost their last four away matches, scoring just once and have scored just twice in their last six on the road.
Morecambe have been particularly poor against top-half opposition, failing to score in eight of their 15 away games, while keeping just two clean sheets, one of which came against bottom-placed Carlisle. Their record against teams ranked 13th and above away from home is W0-D0-L8, and their overall record home and away against top-half teams is W0-D2-L12. In those matches, they have scored just five goals and have failed to score in every single away match against teams in 13th or above.
Despite their poor record, Morecambe have rarely been blown away, conceding three or more goals only twice on the road this season. Over the last eight matches, they sit 19th for xPTS and 17th for non-penalty xG ratio.
Notts County should win this match, but it may not be as comfortable as expected, given Morecambe’s recent ability to avoid heavy defeats against stronger sides. However, with County’s solid home form and Morecambe’s goal-scoring struggles, a home win with under 4.5 goals looks like a strong betting angle.
- Best Bet: Notts County to win and under 4.5 goals at 1.77 with Betway
Upcoming match previews and betting tips
- Sat 12:15 Leeds United vs Millwall
- Sat 12:15 Leyton Orient vs Manchester City
- Sat 14:30 Borussia Dortmund vs Stuttgart
- Sat 14:30 Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
- Sat 15:00 Everton vs AFC Bournemouth
- Sat 15:00 Southampton vs Burnley
- Sat 15:00 Wigan vs Fulham
- Sat 15:00 Coventry City vs Ipswich Town
- Sat 15:15 Athletic Bilbao vs Girona
- Sat 17:00 Empoli vs AC Milan
- Sat 17:45 Birmingham City vs Newcastle United
- Sat 20:00 Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
- Sat 20:00 Brighton and Hove Albion vs Chelsea
- Mark Walker’s Scottish Football Tips: Elgin can batter the Binos
- Expert football pools betting tips: Cup action takes centre stage
- Next Premier League manager sacked odds: Odds cut on struggling Spurs boss
