Edwards vs Brady prediction: Who comes out on top at UFC London?

Leon Edwards starts his journey to reclaim glory with a welterweight clash against Sean Brady at UFC London on Saturday. Brady stepped in late to replace Jack Della Maddalena, who will challenge division champion Belal Muhammad in May. Will a late change in opposition throw a spanner in the works for Edwards? Find out in our Edwards vs Brady prediction. 

Tale of the tape 

Edwards has a 22-4(1) MMA record and three of his four career defeats have come in the UFC. 

It's been a full three years since that legendary head-kick knockout by Edwards against Usman. He defended the title twice, then fell to Muhammad at UFC 304. ‘Rocky’ is confident that he can get the result against Muhammad next time, but to get that chance, he must return to winning ways against Brady in London. 

Brady enters the fight with a 17-1 professional record. Interestingly, his only defeat was also against Muhammad. The reigning UFC welterweight champion secured a TKO victory over him in Dubai in 2022.

Other than that, Brady’s record has been flawless until now. He has seen off Kelvin Gastelum and Gilbert Burns in his last two fights. Edwards would be a significant step up, but the Philadelphia fighter would relish the opportunity, knowing a win would bring him closer to his first UFC title shot.

Leon Edwards vs Sean Brady hot tip: Edwards to win via decision 

Muhammad has exposed Edwards’ vulnerability and Brady must have taken note. We expect him to go for as many takedowns as possible, but matching Muhammad's efficiency in that area is a difficult task.

Edwards must have done his homework after losing to Muhammad as well. He must have worked on his takedown defence while preparing for this fight. Maddalena could have given him the same level of trouble, but Edwards should feel more comfortable fighting Brady since he lacks experience in such high-profile matchups. 

That said, we don’t expect it to be an easy fight for the Jamaican. Brady should make Edwards work hard, but in the end, we expect Edwards to prevail. 

Leon Edwards vs Sean Brady: Key stats 

• Brady has a shorter average fight time than Edwards. On average, Brady’s bouts last 13 minutes and 58 seconds, while Edwards spends an average of 17 minutes and 22 seconds in the cage.
• Edwards gets the physical advantage. He is six feet two, meaning he is four inches taller than Brady. Edwards has a 74-inch reach, which grants him a two-inch reach advantage. 
• Brady (4.09) has a much better Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) record than Edwards (2.68). That means, he is the most efficient striker between the two. 

Fight odds and win probability 

Here are the current Leon Edwards vs Sean Brady odds:

Leon Edwards: 7/5 (2.40) – Implied probability 41.67%

Sean Brady: 4/7 (1.57) – Implied probability 63.6%

*Leon Edwards vs Sean Brady betting odds from Boylesports, subject to change.

Keys to victory 

Edwards returns to the ring after his demoralising loss to Muhammad. He will be eager to return to title conversations soon, but it won’t be easy for him to beat Brady. Even though he came in as a last minute replacement, Brady is the bookies’ favourite heading into this clash. Let’s find out how both fighters can tilt the balance of this bout in their favour.

Leon Edwards – Strike from range 

Numbers suggest Brady is the better striker between the two, but we take that with a grain of salt. Edwards might lag behind in efficiency, but he compensates for it with his ruthlessness. He can inflict severe damage with the strikes he lands. So even if he misses a few, the ones that find the target might spell trouble for Brady. 

Edwards needs to make his reach advantage count. Don’t let Brady come closer and attempt takedowns. Control the distance and try to land some long range shots. If he can stick to that routine, we see the referee raising Edwards’ hands after the fight. 

Sean Brady – Attempt takedowns 

Brady needs to turn this into a grappling game, if he is to emulate Muhammad’s success story. Edwards had a tough time defending takedowns against ‘Remember the Name’. If Brady can follow the blueprint, he should be able to hand Edwards a second successive defeat. 

If Brady can perfect the ground game in his fight, it will minimise Edwards chances for a win. He needs to stay in a dominant position on the ground and prevent Edwards from launching counter assaults.

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