Darts: LockupTipster’s Premier League Tips – Week 4

THE table is beginning to take some shape in the Premier League, where Peter Wright is the only player left without defeat with five players all on four points.

Chisnall is back on three points. Smith got off the mark with a draw last week against Chisnall to open his account and Anderson and Thornton are yet to get off the mark.

Key stats thus far

Week one

• 180s – 24
• High finish – 167 MVG

Week two

• 180s – 25
• High finish – 127 Taylor

Week three

• 180s – 35
• High finish – 161 Wright

Week four fixtures

• Adrian Lewis Vs James Wade – 1/1; 4/1; 23/10
• Gary Anderson Vs Raymond van Barneveld – 5/6; 4/1; 13/5
• Michael van Gerwen Vs Michael Smith – 2/7; 13/2; 7/1
• Phil Taylor Vs Dave Chisnall – 4/5; 4/1; 11/4
• Peter Wright Vs Robert Thornton – 4/7; 9/2; 4/1

Remember the player named on the left will throw first. With some juicy away prices the best price in my view has to be along the five time world champion Raymond van Barnveveld at 13/5. With the head to head and Premier League overall record will explain more.

Adrian Lewis Vs James Wade – 1/1; 4/1; 23/10

Head to head – James leads 26-16 with 3 draws

PL Head to head – James leads 6-3 with 3 draws

Key identified stats

• Lewis was unbeaten in the 2015 campaign with one win and a tie
• In the four matches played in the best of 12 format, only one has gone the distance
• Lewis has won all but one of the last four meetings, with a draw in the other

Lewis comes into this game at evens with the layers giving nothing away, although Adrian has not had it all his way in previous meetings. Jackpot has not been the most consistent players over the years in the competition and could not have got off to a better start averaging over 98.50 in all of the opening three. Posting a dozen maximums, Lewis has not produced the high checkouts he is totally accountable for in the longer format competition.

The machine in response has played fairly steady, having averaged in excess of 96-97 over the four games played. Noting one night James played twice. Wade has picked up scoring, although James could benefit from more maximums, although has hit big checkouts in the opening three weeks.

The head to head bodes well with Wade, which will attract the 23/10 in. The 5/1 180 tie does speak some volume could have mileage although with five in week one and three last week versus Jackpot that has averaged four sways on the 4/7 for Jackpot to reign supreme in this market. One great payback in this game is the 50.64% book on William Hills match result and both to win four legs.

Adding the draw in at 4/1 with Boylesports presents a 76.46% book meaning if both wins four legs. Placing your wagers to produce a profit you will benefit and with three of the last four going eleven legs should be considered outright.

One bet I do like is Wade to hit a 96 or better checkout with Paddy Power.

Gary Anderson Vs Raymond van Barneveld – 5/6; 4/1; 13/5

Head to head – Raymond leads 14-9 with 2 draws

PL head to head – Raymond leads 6-2 with 2 draws

Key identified stats

• Anderson has salvaged just one victory in the last seven
• The players are meeting in this campaign for the sixth consecutive year
• In the last twelve months to date Anderson has won two, drawn one and lost one

Surely the value lies with Barney at 13/5 with Coral, whereas generally bookmakers are evens with Barney on a +1.5 leg head start and the draw no bet at 15/8 for Barney. The Dutch maestro went last year’s campaign unbeaten and with Anderson looking to rebound from two defeats this game could be difficult to call as Barney has the edge generally, but Anderson potentially has a greater need in the game.

I do find backing Barneveld difficult to undertake at times. Yes, the Dutchman is prolific with his checkouts nailing 100 in week two and 153 in week three. Again like Wade with Paddy offering 5/6 on Barney hitting a ninety-six or better at 5/6 is the way to go. Barney loves his treble twenty, double eighteen combinations and one ninety-six checkout will bring home the bacon.

I do think the maximums line at 6.5 is high to take on at evens for six or less and 42/41 with Bwin for the same bet. In five games combined the pair have netted just twelve maximums and do not vision Barney hitting more than three. Again the 9/2 on the 180 tie should not be overlooked.

Michael van Gerwen Vs Michael Smith – 2/7; 13/2; 7/1

Head to head -Michael van Gerwen leads 14-4

PL head to head – no previous meetings

Key identified stats

• MVG has won all of the last three including a whitewash last Friday in a UK Open qualifier
• MVG’s latest TV scalps against Smith was at the Masters and Grand Slam which was in January and November respectively
• Smith’s last win was at the European Darts Trophy last September’s edging Mighty Mike 6-5

Can Mighty Mike continue after his excellent weekend at the UK Open qualifiers? Mike has shown in previous TV meetings that he can win convincingly, and have to think, is Smith already writing this game off as a no-goer?

Bookies are of the opinion especially at 4/5 that Mike wins 7-3 or better and is just 2/5 to win by 7-4 or better. I do find an angle here if you think MVG can cover the handicap, but want an insurance policy in place. Again at evens minus 3.5 is boosted to 11/5 if MVG wins but Smith hits back with four or five legs.

I do think MVG could be a coupon filler for highest checkout at 1/2 with two tonne plus high top finishes versus smith who was valiant 120 in last week’s game.

Phil Taylor Vs Dave Chisnall – 4/5; 4/1; 11/4

Head to head – Phil leads 20-8

PL head to head – Phil leads 3-1

Key identified stats

• In the six meetings to date in the last twelve months, the pair has met six times with three wins apiece
• Importantly all of the Taylor wins in this period was on TV including the World Series and Matchplay

Phil certainly has the edge in previous meetings with Chisnall and generally get the feeling Dave plays without fear against the Power, especially in the last couple of notable meetings. Playing without fear though does not get you over the line and Phil the last two occasions on TV powered over the line and this is where Phil will have some advantage before toeing the oche.

The one bet I do like is Chisnall to win the maximum count by two or more at 10/11 with Coral and Skybet seeing that Taylor has nailed seven to Chisnall’s twelve. This will be popular and with Phils darts being tweaked on a regular basis against Dave’s chance to get one back on Phil will surely give him a fighting chance even though the compilers see him as the clear underdog.

Peter Wright Vs Robert Thornton – 4/7; 9/2; 4/1

Head to head – Peter leads 9-4 with 1 draw

PL head to head – Peter leads 1-0 with 1 draw

Key identified stats

• Wright has not been beaten by Thornton in the Premier League
• Both Premier League matches have gone the distance in legs
• The last four meetings went to a last leg decider with the last seven including the best of eleven format heading over on legs
• Wright is undefeated in the last seven meetings spanning back to mid-March 2013

Thornton certainly showed some resilience but threw it away to Barney last week being edged 7-5 in a great crowd reaction last week. This week the Thorn welcomes fellow Scot Peter Wright, who has the considerable edge on his countryman Thornton. Having not lost in nearly three years has Wright and Thornton going very different ways. Credit to Thornton, who being written off by compilers can play for himself. With Wright back to his old darts last week although a little jerky at times were more consistent than the previous weeks efforts.

Thornton’s consideration in markets this week has little confidence in some markets although a differing opinion in the maximum markets with Bet365 at evens for three or more and BetVictor and Paddy Power 11/10 for fewer than three. Wright is a considered maximum thrower but knowing Snakebite, tweaking those darts could make a wager in this market a minefield. Again in a similar market Peter is 5/6 for over 99.50 three-dart average!

Recommendations

• Wade – over 95.50 checkout – 5/6 Paddy Power 1.5 pts
• Barney – over 95.50 checkout – 5/6 Paddy Power 1.5 pts
• Chisnall -1 180 handicap Vs Taylor – 10/11 Skybet 3pts
• Anderson/Barney – U 6.5 180s 1/1 BetVictor

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