THE Rome derby on Monday night rounds off a brilliant weekend of TV fixtures and this is a tough one to call.

There have been seven red cards in the last five runnings of this fixture and while that doesn’t necessarily lead you to lump on yes in the sending-ff market it does make you realise anything could happen here.

Roma must beat Lazio to rekindle any hopes they have of a top-four finish and they know a win would draw them level on points with their city rivals.

The identity of the top four will be the glue that binds the rest of the Serie A season together. Roma are justifiably favourites but look a little short to me at 2.02.

I can’t support a team that lost in Palermo (and failed to score) at that kind of price in a game of this magnitude, especially given the fact that Lazio have won the last three derbies.

All season long we have seen that Lazio are a better team with Miroslav Klose and even though he’s on his way back he still won’t be fit to start.

Roma are missing the suspended Pablo Osvaldo and that creates a conundrum in terms of the match odds market. Favourites Roma are short enough at 2.02 but I think Lazio will score at least once and we know Roma, even after the departure of Zdenek Zeman and without Osvaldo, are capable of producing goals at home (three and two in the first two post Zeman games).

Earlier this season these two produced a five goal thriller and while tiredness and nervousness may not lead to a classic in the mould of last weekend’s Torino v Napoli game, I still think over 3.5 goals at around 3.4 is a fair price.

Recommended Bet

Back over 3.5 Goals in Roma v Lazio @ 3.4

Milesey

31 Comments
  1. Danny 8 years ago

    This will be the 138th derby between Roma and Lazio: the Giallorossi lead by 47 wins to 36, with 54 draws.

    However, none of the last 11 derbies of Rome have ended as a draw.

    The recend trend sees Roma leading by six wins to five, but Lazio have had the better in the last three derbies.

    Roma have won four of the last five derbies played as the home side, but lost the last in March 2012.

    Last Sunday against Palermo, Roma suffered their second loss under Aurelio Andreazzoli, and for the first time since the appointment of the new manager, the Giallorossi failed to score.

    Lazio got back to winning ways last Sunday against Catania, following a negative run of three losses in a row without scoring.

    15 of Roma’s 57 goals have been headers – a record in this Serie A.

    Roma have also scored the most goals in the first half so far (29).

    Francesco Totti remains the only Serie A player to have reached double figure for goals (11) and assists (10) this term.

    Francesco Totti has scored eight goals in Serie A against Lazio, but only one over his last 10 derbies.

    Roma are the only side with three goal-scorers in double figure in this campaign: Lamela (13), Osvaldo (11) and Totti (11).

    • Milesey 8 years ago

      Roma v Lazio
      Monday 19:45, live on ESPN

      When you get to Francesco Totti’s age it’s good to set objectives in order to motivate yourself to keep going.

      In the long-term, the Roma captain wants to score the 48 goals required to reach the former Lazio striker Silvio Piola and become the all-time top scorer in the history of Serie A.

      In the short-term, he aims to find the net in Monday night’s eagerly anticipated Rome derby. Because if Totti were to do so, he would join Dino da Costa and Marco Delvecchio as the players to have scored most against Lazio in Roma’s history.

      Totti, it must be said, has traditionally found the going quite tough against Lazio. He has scored only eight times against them in 20 years, whereas Da Costa managed to get nine in the space of just two and a half between October 1956 and April 1959. Delvecchio did it in five between 1997 and 2002.

      Although Totti’s last goal against Lazio came two years ago, there’s reason to believe he’ll add to his total on Monday.

      From a personal perspective, the 36-year-old is having an excellent season. Totti is the only Serie A player to have reached double figures for goals (11) and assists (10) this term. Italy coach Cesare Prandelli has even spoken about the prospect of calling him up for the 2014 World Cup should he be performing at this level this time next year.

      Back him To Score at the best price available once the market becomes more liquid.

      The exchange makes Roma favourites to win the 138th derby at 2.02. That might strike some as strange. Fifth placed Lazio have won the last three derbies in a row and are three points ahead of Roma in seventh. So why does the market have them at 4.1?

      The price can perhaps be explained by Lazio’s poor form in the spring. They’re 16th in the second half of the season in Serie A, a dip that’s attributable to injuries to key players in particular Miroslav Klose – who, according to coach Vladimir Petkovic is still a slight doubt for Monday along with Stefano Mauri. Add into the mix some poor officiating, slices of bad luck and going deep into the Europa League where they’re in the quarter-finals and you have your answer.

      Lazio lost 2-0 to Fenerbahçe in Istanbul on Thursday night. As it happens, they’ve never won in Serie A after an away leg in the Europa League this season. They felt particularly hard done by on the sending off of Ogenyi Onazi and on the penalty that Stefan Radu was harshly adjudged to have given away. While it’s not as though Lazio need getting up for the derby, they’ve promised to channel their anger at these perceived injustices into it anyway.

      Which brings us nicely on to discipline. There have been seven red cards in the last four Rome derbies. So why not back there to be another one at 2.8.

      Also penalties can be anticipated. There have been five scored in the last seven meetings between Roma and Lazio. Three of them have been put away by Hernanes, who is also worth considering to score at anytime at the best price available. Given there have been Over 2.5 Goals in three of the last five derbies too, it might be worth getting on that too even at 1.88.

      Recommended Bets

      Back Roma to win @ 2.02
      Back Francesco Totti To Score @ best price available
      Back Hernanes to score @ best price available
      Back a Sending Off @ 2.8
      Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.88

      Milesey

  2. Tim 8 years ago

    Im on BTTS

  3. AC 8 years ago

    1-1

  4. Craig alves 8 years ago

    can see this being 1-1 too but wait to see teams as lazio play fenerbahce on Thursday.

  5. Willie McGuire 8 years ago

    Draw on this game and adding in Machester derby, and Bursaspor v Besiktas.

  6. Passy Pro 8 years ago

    Thanks Milesey I was doing a little bit of research last night. I probably wouldn’t back a 3.5+ goal scoring in the match but I’ll definitely go for 2.5+ for a safe net.

    I can would go for the following:

    – AS Roma to win
    – 2.5+ goals in the match
    – Both teams to score
    – A cheeky 2-1 to AS Roma bet

  7. Jay F 8 years ago

    Lazio will rest players surely?

    • Mr Fixit 8 years ago

      Jay F, I’d be surprised as Champions League qualification and a derby with Roma must be more important than a Europa League tie.

  8. Danny 8 years ago

    in my opinion its a competition they are finished in anyway Fenerbahce are a team full of good players and they will not be heading to Lazio to defend a 2-0 lead they will look to add to it. it would do them know harm whatsoever heading into next seasons champions league as Europa league holders and possibly Turkish champions depending on there penultimate game of the season at home to rivals Galatasaray ( god help the streets of Istanbul on 12/5 if that’s the title decider )

  9. Milesey 8 years ago

    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

    GET IN !!!!!!!!!

    Back Hernanes to score @ best price available

    Milesey

  10. tom mc 8 years ago

    Roma goina cost me a fortune unless they start playing in second. They’ve been shockin so far. Nice call milesey.

    • Mr Fixit 8 years ago

      Tom, why put a fortune on Roma if you don’t fancy them yourself. Most people including myself liked Roma but there are no certainties, especially in derbies. They are tips and anyway they can still win.

  11. Milesey 8 years ago

    You obviously thought ROMA will win, that is why you put your money on , am i right ?

    Or you just follow what i say ? you should have your own mind, and be able to make your own decisions, but seeing as though your not capable of that you then want to blame someone else who posted ROMA will win as someone to take your anger problem out on, then you are a joke !

    There are websites on the net that show you how to commit suicide why don’t you go on one of them and follow their examples !

    Milesey

  12. Milesey 8 years ago

    Back Francesco Totti To Score @ best price available
    Back Hernanes to score @ best price available

    2 out of 2 on the goalscorers ;) ;)

    Milesey

  13. tom mc 8 years ago

    I ment nice call on hernanes scoring. wtf you on about? I have Roma in an acca since sat. Cool you boots mate.

    • Mr Fixit 8 years ago

      Tom, it didn’t come across that way to Milesey or me. If we’ve picked you up wrong then sorry.

    • Milesey 8 years ago

      I’m not commenting but he didn’t even say about the goalscorer, it’s another tit on the wind up, it’s school holiday time, have noticed that today, don’t know what the past few days have been like on here.

      Milesey

    • Mr Fixit 8 years ago

      Milesey, I see what he means now but not very clear. Anyway, I see John got his OG bet up. Good call and hope he backed it.

  14. tom mc 8 years ago

    Ye are taking me up all wrong here. Look at my post it’s just after milesey says he’s had a winner I say nice call. Crazy stuff outa milesey though. go kill myself? Nice

    • Mr Fixit 8 years ago

      Tom, it sounds sarcastic but I get you now. Don’t cross Milesey.

  15. Milesey 8 years ago

    Back Francesco Totti To Score @ best price available * WINNER **
    Back Hernanes to score @ best price available ** WINNER **
    Back a Sending Off @ 2.8 ** WINNER **

    loving it !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Milesey

  16. tom mc 8 years ago

    Yeah know that now. you’d think a lad that’s had a few winners tonight would be in better spirits.

    • Mr Fixit 8 years ago

      Tom, a couple of idiots had a dig earlier so he’s on the defensive which I understand.

    • Milesey 8 years ago

      It sounded like you were saying ” nice call on ROMA ” and at that stage they were losing, i don’t like losing any bets. ;)

      Milesey

  17. tom mc 8 years ago

    Looking back at it yeah it wasn’t worded brilliantly but in no way did I mean that. If your like that after a few winners hate to cross ya after a bad day at the races!

  18. Milesey 8 years ago

    Looks like i got my goals round the wrong way, should have been on the under 2.5 goals for ROMA V LAZIO, and over 2.5 and 3.5 for utd v city…….. all well and good now….. oh well.

    Back Francesco Totti To Score @ best price available * WINNER **
    Back Hernanes to score @ best price available ** WINNER **
    Back a Sending Off @ 2.8 ** WINNER **

    Milesey

    • Mr Fixit 8 years ago

      Milesey, well done on Roma, I’ll claim victory on United – only bet being btts. So between us no one can argue.

  19. AC 8 years ago

    1-1 called it like a big boss man — Get in!

    • Milesey 8 years ago

      Back Francesco Totti To Score @ best price available * WINNER **
      Back Hernanes to score @ best price available ** WINNER **

      2 goals, both the scorers get in !! ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)

      Milesey

  20. Craig alves 8 years ago

    Called it too AC, 1-1 written all over it :) and my first bonkers bet up aswell

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