Cheltenham Festival: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Ante-Post Preview

This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.

DAY one of the Cheltenham Festival 2017 gets under way on Tuesday March 14, with one of the greatest weeks of national hunt racing anywhere.

The Festival is four days and consists of 28 races, I said last year I was tipping in every race and was looking to show a profit for the week and I did. My bet of the meeting won, Limini at 10-11,  my second best bet of the meeting was Native River and was 2nd at 8-1, my third best bet of the meeting was Yorkhill who won at 9-4.

My three lays of the meeting were spot on as the three horses in question all lost. Thistlecrack was advised antepost at 20-1 to win the World Hurdle which won and again advised at 20-1 to win this year's Gold Cup, we also have Bristol De Mai in the Gold Cup and he was advised at 50-1 so hopefully this year can be just as lucrative.

So just who are the 2017 heroes and heroines going to be? Hopefully I can help steer you in the right direction.

On day one “Champion Day” we start with the Supreme Novices Hurdle and that now famous Cheltenham roar at the start, run over 2m 1/2f it’s run at a frantic pace, Willie Mullins has dominated this race, winning in 2013 Champagne Fever, 2014 Vautour and 2015 Douvan although last year he could only manage second with Min. Min was actually one of my lay selections last year. So what about this year, well we should start with the man who dominates Cheltenham and is likely to again, Willie Mullins, but at time of writing this we don’t know which horses he will be running but he does have the favourite who has been well backed this week and the bookies have been running for cover as this horse could be one of their biggest liabilities at the festival, the horse is Melon.

Supreme Novices Hurdle

Melon – Willie Mullins 7-2 10bet

Melon had a very big reputation when first arriving at the Mullins stable but the horse had a few setbacks which has meant he had been off the track for 563 days before running at Leopardstown on the 29th January. It looked like he had never been off the track as he jumped off smartly to sit in behind the leaders, he did run a bit freely but was never off the bridle as he ran out an easy 10l winner.

Melon did take a bit of a chance at the last hurdle but you have to wonder if Ruby Walsh has something to do with that, for all the great jockey he is, I have to say he is far better on chasers than he is on hurdlers “that’s not me having a pop at Ruby”. Melon does look talented and an exciting horse, he does need to improve which he is very capable of doing but he doesn’t look the typical Mullins Supreme horse we are used to, Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan all had graded race experience going to Cheltenham and all Melon has is a solitary maiden win and he will have to be good to win,

Airlie Beach – Willie Mullins 16-1 10bet

7 from 7 under Rules when winning a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse before Christmas, she made all with a strong pace and jumped well, galloping her rivals into the ground. Could she do that here? Will she run in this race? My view is she will go for the Mares Novice Hurdle but in truth she really could win any race she went for, I rate her very highly.

Moon Racer – David Pipe 4-1 110bet

This horse has been favourite for as long as I can remember up until recent weeks. He hasn’t been seen since early November which is a worry but he does have good race experience in graded races, winning when last seen in a grade two beating Mirsaale and Ballyandy. He is 2 from 2 over hurdles and 5 from 6 overall, his last run was a tactical affair taking the lead as they turned for home and he did quicken well up the Cheltenham hill. Moon Racer is also a festival winner after Winning the Champion Bumper last year, Moon Racer's form is stronger than Melon's but has been off the track.

Charli Parcs – Nicky Henderson 10-1 10bet

With just the one run since joining the Henderson yard he won just as well as Melon but in a better race. Also would need to improve as others are ahead of him but he can improve, he came from France with a big reputation and is due to run in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton on 25th February. He is also 8-1 for the Triumph Hurdle at the festival.

Cilaos Emery – Willie Mullins 16-1 10bet

The quiet horse from the Mullins yard as he isn’t being talked about much, but he is 2 from 2 and was very impressive in his only Hurdle run. Granted the race wasn’t up to much but he did do it well, the second that day was Joey Sasa who was beaten six lengths but came out next time and beat a decent Gordon Elliott horse in Barra and then third in a really good grade two at Leopardstown this week which was won by Let’s Dance and Willie Mullins. So although Cilaos Emery is still inexperienced, it is good form,

Neon Wolf – Harry Fry 12-1 10bet

This horse was very impressive in the Rossington Main hurdle when I tipped Elgin. Neon Wolf that day went to the front at the fourth last and pulled away to win comfortably but will he run in the Supreme or Neptune Novices Hurdle 9-2 or will he even run at Cheltenham at all? The owners love Punchestown so would they really bypass Cheltenham?
My thoughts are that it depends on the ground as this horse won’t want it fast but in actual fact I am more looking forward to seeing Neon Wolf go chasing next season. But if he does run at Cheltenham, I would think it would be in the Neptune.

Chateau Conti – Willie Mullins 12-1 10bet

Yes yet another Mullins horse, this one owned by Edward O’Connell who also owns Un De Sceaux. Chateau Conti has only had one run for Mullins but there is something about this horse, maybe it’s his speed or maybe something else, this horse loves to lead and has the pace that is needed for the Supreme Novices and on his debut for Mullins he had them well strung out from an early stage and it was just so easy, I really like the look of this horse.

Defi Du Seuil – Philip Hobbs 14-1 10bet

Owned by JP McManus who also owns Charli Parcs so it’s unclear where Defi Du Seuil will run. He is 5 from 5 so far, has been running in better class races than a lot of his rivals, his jumping can be a bit sketchy but Barry Geraghty has said he can jump better, he really looks like going in the Triumph hurdle which he is 4-1 favourite to win, a major plus for this horse is his experience at Cheltenham as he is 3 from 3 there.

Elgin – Alan King 25-1

I am certain we didn’t see this horse anywhere near his best last time out when beaten by Neon Wolf but I have slightly changed my views on this horse, although I know he is capable of better. But when I look deep into this race I see others that look ahead of him, saying that I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran in the Supreme and won, connections said after his last run that he jumped and travelled well but think they were just beaten by a very good horse.

All in all it all comes down to which horses are running in what races, but at least now some bookies are going NRNB. So because of this I like the look of CHATEAU CONTI at 12-1 & AIRLIE BEACH 16-1 with MOON RACER not far away. But although Melon is highly thought of, he just isn’t value for what he has achieved, I wouldn’t be surprised if he won though.
For my selections I can’t see both these Mullins horses running or neither might run but at least we get our stake back.

Selections

• CHATEAU CONTI 12-1 10bet
• AIRLIE BEACH 16-1 10bet

Saver

• MOON RACER 4-1 10bet

Claim upto £200 Welcome Bonus at our Cheltenham Partners 10Bet

At 10Bet you're guaranteed the best odds across all UK & Ireland racing at 10bet.

Sign-up today and claim a massive £200 Welcome Bonus!

🔗 Share Your Horse Racing Tips on Social Media