The group stage is complete, the Round of 32 bracket is locked in and the World Cup betting markets have entered a very different phase. With every qualification scenario resolved and all 54 group-stage matches feeding into the model, this is the strongest version of the tournament projections so far.
The biggest recommendation from the previous update has strengthened rather than weakened. Several new stage markets also stand out, while a handful of teams remain significantly overrated once the confirmed knockout paths are taken into account.
What is the model and how does it work?
This article forms part of an ongoing World Cup modelling project built specifically for the 2026 tournament. The model simulates the competition 100,000 times using four weighted inputs.
Outright winner odds contribute 70% of every team's rating. Qualifying points per game, adjusted for confederation strength, account for 10%. Tournament performance contributes a further 10% through cumulative expected goal difference, while the remaining weighting comes from geography, boosting South American nations by 10%, host countries by 15.5% and reducing European sides by 5% to reflect historical performance at World Cups held in the Americas.
Each simulation produces the probability of every nation reaching the Round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals, final and lifting the trophy. Those probabilities are then compared with the best bookmaker prices. Whenever the model probability exceeds the implied market probability, value exists.
This is the most accurate version produced during the tournament. Every group-stage result is now confirmed, the official FIFA bracket has replaced projected knockout paths and actual bookmaker prices are incorporated into every Round of 32 fixture rather than estimated probabilities.
What has changed since the last article
Three developments have significantly changed the betting picture.
First, the knockout bracket is now confirmed. Every team's route to the final is known, removing the uncertainty that existed before Matchday Three. Some contenders have received favourable draws, while others face much tougher routes than the market appears to recognise.
Second, the final round of group games produced several important surprises. Ecuador beat Germany, Turkey defeated the USA despite American qualification already being secured, Belgium comfortably won Group G, Cape Verde progressed ahead of Uruguay, Croatia qualified from Group L and South Africa finished strongly by beating South Korea. Every one of those results altered the knockout bracket.
Third, all 54 group-stage matches are now included in the expected goals calculations. Belgium lead the remaining teams with a cumulative xGD of +4.84, narrowly ahead of Spain on +4.72. England follow on +4.59, while Germany remain among the strongest underlying performers despite their final-day defeat to Ecuador.
The model now reflects both tournament performance and the confirmed knockout route, making these recommendations considerably stronger than those published after Matchday Two.
Previous recommendations. The strongest has become even stronger
The previous article identified Argentina to reach the semi-final as the standout bet of the tournament at 6/5. Although the price has shortened to 4/6, the value case has improved.
The reason is simple. Argentina's confirmed draw is considerably easier than the projected path used in the previous simulations.
Instead of facing Uruguay in the Round of 32, Lionel Scaloni's side meet Cape Verde, who qualified after drawing all three group matches. The model gives Argentina a 94.7% chance of progressing before likely facing either Australia or Egypt in the Round of 16. Neither represents the level of opposition expected before the bracket was finalised.
A quarter-final against Colombia or Switzerland follows, meaning Argentina avoid England, France, Spain, Germany and Brazil until the semi-finals at the earliest.
The model now gives Argentina an 80.2% chance of reaching the last four compared with a market-implied probability of 60%. That 20.2 percentage point edge remains the biggest value opportunity available in any stage market.
Argentina to reach the semi-final remains the strongest recommendation of the tournament.
For bettors looking for a bigger return, Argentina to reach the final at 9/4 also deserves attention. The model gives them a 45.3% chance compared with the market's implied 30.8%, creating another sizeable edge based on exactly the same bracket advantage.
New recommendations. What the confirmed bracket has created
England have moved into second place in the value rankings following confirmation of the knockout draw. The Round of 32 meeting with DR Congo is one the model expects England to win comfortably before a likely Round of 16 clash with Mexico. Thomas Tuchel's side are rated at 71% to progress from that tie, with only a potential quarter-final against Brazil presenting a genuine obstacle before the semi-finals.
England to reach the semi-final at 13/8 implies only a 38.1% probability. The model gives them 58.1%, creating a 20-point edge.
There is one important caveat. Should Mexico beat Ecuador, the Round of 16 would almost certainly take place at the Estadio Ciudad de Mexico. Mexico's historical record there is exceptional and the altitude remains one factor the model cannot fully quantify. The geography adjustment accounts for host advantage generally, but not the specific challenge of facing Mexico at over 7,000 feet in a knockout match.
That does not remove the value. It simply means the risk is greater than the raw numbers alone suggest.
For more conservative bettors, England to reach the quarter-final at 8/15 offers an even higher probability outcome, with the model giving England an 83.7% chance against a market expectation of 65.2%.
Spain also remain one of the strongest stage bets. Their route avoids France, England and Argentina until the semi-finals, with Austria first before Portugal or Croatia in the Round of 16. Combined with their outstanding underlying numbers, including a tournament-leading xGD of +4.72, Spain reach the semi-finals in 53.9% of simulations compared with the market's implied 42.1%.
Colombia also appeal in the quarter-final market. Ghana present a favourable Round of 32 draw before a likely meeting with Switzerland or Algeria. The model gives Colombia a 62.3% chance of reaching the last eight, comfortably above the market expectation.
What to avoid. The confirmed bracket changes everything
The official bracket has also exposed several markets where the odds remain far shorter than the model believes they should be. In almost every case, the issue is not team quality but the route they must navigate.
Norway to reach the final at 12/1 is the clearest example. Even if Norway beat Ivory Coast in the Round of 32, a tie the model rates close to 50-50, Brazil almost certainly await in the Round of 16. England or Mexico would then be the likely quarter-final opponents before a possible semi-final against Argentina.
The model gives Norway only a 0.7% chance of reaching the final. The market implies 7.7%.That is one of the largest negative edges in any outright stage market.
Croatia also look significantly overpriced in the quarter-final market. They first have to eliminate Portugal, a match where the model gives them only a 26.8% chance of progressing. Even if they manage that upset, Spain are the likely Round of 16 opponents. Asking Croatia to beat both Portugal and Spain simply to reach the quarter-finals is reflected by the model's probability of only 4.1%. The market implies 28.6%.
Portugal themselves are difficult to support in the outright markets despite their obvious quality. Croatia is an awkward opening fixture before a likely meeting with Spain, meaning one of the tournament favourites is guaranteed to eliminate them before the quarter-finals. A price of 5/1 to reach the final implies a 16.7% probability. The model makes it only 10.3%.
Mexico face a similarly demanding route. Ecuador represent no easy opening assignment and England almost certainly await in the Round of 16. Even if Javier Aguirre's side were to overcome both obstacles, Brazil or Norway would follow before a likely semi-final against Argentina. The market gives Mexico a 6.7% chance of reaching the final. The model gives them only 1.1%.
Germany are another side whose route works against them. Providing they overcome Paraguay, France await immediately in the Round of 16. The model makes France favourites in that tie, meaning Germany are more likely to leave the tournament in the opening knockout week than reach the last four. Their semi-final price therefore offers little value despite Germany remaining one of the stronger teams statistically throughout the group stage.
The clearest picture yet
With every group-stage match complete, the official Round of 32 bracket confirmed and bookmaker prices incorporated into every knockout simulation, this is the strongest version of the model produced during the tournament.
Argentina remain the outstanding recommendation. Their route has become considerably easier than expected, and the market has still not fully adjusted. Reaching the semi-final remains the strongest bet available, while reaching the final also carries a sizeable edge for those seeking a bigger return.
England have emerged as the next best opportunity. Their path is favourable, the underlying numbers remain strong and both the quarter-final and semi-final markets continue to underestimate their chances, although the potential meeting with Mexico at altitude is one variable no model can fully capture.
Spain also stand out. Their bracket keeps them away from several of the tournament favourites until the semi-finals, while their underlying performances have been among the best of any nation left in the competition. Colombia complete the shortlist, with the route to the quarter-finals offering better value than the market currently suggests.
The teams to oppose are equally clear. Norway, Croatia, Portugal, Mexico and Germany all face knockout paths that are considerably harder than their prices imply. In each case, the market appears to have focused on team strength rather than the sequence of opponents required to justify those odds.
As always, the model is not attempting to predict the winner with certainty. Knockout football is too volatile for that. Its purpose is to identify where market probabilities differ most from long-run expectation. With the bracket now fixed and every group-stage performance feeding into the calculations, those differences are clearer than they have been at any point during the tournament.
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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