Belgium v Senegal
Belgium

Belgium vs Senegal

, KO: 21:00 , Seattle Stadium
Senegal

Belgium and Senegal meet in Seattle, Washington, on Wednesday evening in an intriguing Round of 32 tie.

Belgium endured a sluggish start to their World Cup campaign, as they were held to draws with Egypt (1-1) and Iran (0-0) in their opening two matches in Group G.

However, Rudi Garcia’s men clicked into gear in their final group match as they thrashed New Zealand 5-1, a result that saw them finish top of the group, above Egypt on goal difference.

Senegal made an even worse start to the tournament than their European counterparts, as they suffered entertaining defeats to current favourites France (3-1) and Norway (3-2).

However, Pape Thiaw’s men managed to sneak into the knockout stages as one of the best third-placed sides, as they thrashed Iraq 5-0 in their final match in Group I.

How the bookies view it: Belgium favourites

Belgium are favourites to reach the Round of 16, with bet365 pricing the Red Devils at 8/13 To Qualify, with the win inside 90 minutes priced at 6/5.

Senegal are 13/10 To Qualify, with the win inside regulation time priced at 5/2.

More match odds are available on our best mobile apps for World Cup betting.

Head to head: First-ever meeting

Wednesday night’s clash in Seattle will be the first-ever meeting between these two nations.

Players to watch: Sarr to strike again?

Ismael Sarr got on the scoresheet twice against Norway on MD2, but it wasn’t enough to get Senegal any points on the board as they lost a five-goal thriller.

However, the Crystal Palace attacker scored the second in their victory against Iraq – as well as setting up the third – and looks good value at 8/5 at bet365 to Score or Assist in Seattle on Wednesday night.

Predicted line-ups:

Belgium will have defender Nathan Ngoy available after missing the win over New Zealand through suspension.

Goalkeeper Edouard Mendy is a major doubt for Senegal after missing their win over Iraq.

Belgium: Courtois, Castagne, Ngoy, Theate, De Cuyper, Tielemans, Vanaken, Doku, De Bruyne, Trossard, De Ketelaere

Senegal: Diaw, Diatta, Seck, Niakhite, Jakobs, Diarra, I Gueye, Camara, Mbaye, Sarr, Mane

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Extra time for another tie

This is the most evenly matched tie in the Round of 32. Belgium's Elo rating of 1884 gives them only a narrow edge over Senegal's 1842, producing a 41.7% win probability compared with 32.7%. No other knockout fixture features a smaller ratings gap.

Both teams arrive in excellent form. Belgium generated 3.64 xG in their 5-1 victory over New Zealand, while Senegal created 3.01 xG in a 5-0 demolition of Iraq. Those performances suggest both attacks are peaking at the right time.

The standout angle is extra time. Across the last five World Cups, 44% of knockout matches have gone beyond 90 minutes, yet the market is pricing extra time at around 9/4, implying only 27 to 31%. With so little separating the teams, the chances of a draw after normal time look higher than the odds suggest.

Both teams to score also appeals. My model makes it a 57.2% chance compared with the market's implied 48.0%, making it one of the strongest value plays in the Round of 32.

Anything else catch the eye?

Given that both of these are far stronger going forward than they are defensively, I’m expecting quite an attacking and open encounter in Seattle on Wednesday evening.

Senegal’s three matches in Group I yielded an impressive 14 goals, with Both Teams to Score landing in two of them – only failing to do so in their rout against Iraq – whilst all three went Over 2.5 Goals.

Both Teams to Score landed in two of Belgium’s three group stage clashes, and a repeat pays an appealing 4/5 at bet365.

Belgium vs Senegal Betting Tips & Predictions
Both Teams to Score
4/5
Bet365
Over 2.5 Goals
11/10
Bet365
Ismaila Sarr to Score or Assist
8/5
Bet365
Further Reading
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