Week 5 MNF; Browns @ 49ers

Not an awful night for us yesterday, Will Fuller went in at 2/1 and we landed the overs double at 2.64/1 as well. I was surprised that Auden Tate didn't catch much but the Bengals were a mess first half with Dalton completing 4 passes (if my memory is correct). We should have hit an 8/1 winner in that game though, Dalton threw behind Eifert when he'd got himself free in the endzone. The story of the Bengals season so far.

And I think it's fair to say that the Bears stuffed a lot of bets yesterday after screwing up in London, they didn't record a single sack as a team so safe to say my 2+ sacks bet didn't win. For me the Chiefs not winning ruined a few things for me.

On to this one.

Tonight's game.  Cleveland Browns are 4.5, or 5 point dogs depending where you shop, the Total 47.5 or 47.

I've not got a great read on tonight to be honest. Both have played pretty good defense thus far, the 49ers specifically are 5th in rush yards allowed per game and 7th in pass yards allowed, mainly because they're getting good pressure up front with Buckner, Bosa and Ford all performing well so far this season, pressure on opposing QBs helps all areas of the defense. The Browns aren't awful there themselves but come into another game without 2 key pieces of their secondary with Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams both missing out again.

Unusual to start by mentioning defense, but that's where I'm at really. The run games have been good for both teams this year as well, the 49ers are second in yards per game from the position employing a three-headed monster back there with Matt Breida typically taking the load between the 20s, Raheem Mostert mixing in there too, but Jeff Wilson the goal-line back. Unfortunately for big Jeff, Tevin Coleman is back tonight and he's expected to take over as the goal-line guy. He's got history with Shanahan and is getting paid well. – The Browns employ a much easier backfield, Nick Chubb gets most of it with 20+ touches in all games so far this season and a big game last week. He's also had 3,4,4,3 receptions so getting a little there too.

Gone the wrong way round for all this so it's WRs now. Both teams have a plethora (yeah I'm using that word just to use it) of targets, the 49ers in particular, the minimum players they've targeted in a game this year is 8 in a rout of the Bengals. I think that Pettis may be the WR1 we expected coming into the season, it's been reported that he's been carrying an injury so far, it's a risk though with the likes of Deebo Samuel and Marquise Goodwin having a lot of targets so far, and their Tight end George Kittle averaging 7 targets per game as well. The Browns have Jarvis Landry available after clearing concussion protocol, he had a huge game last week, so I'd assume Beckham will be the man in this one. Rashard Higgins is missing out again, but I Antonio Callaway is back so Damion Ratley will be the WR4 for them. I assume.

The QBs… I don't quite know what to make of either of them to be honest, they've both thrown at least one interception in each game this season, Jimmy Garoppolo has 5 TDs from 3, Baker Mayfield has just the 4 from his 4 games. Both are likely to make mistakes, but have the natural talent to take a game away from the opposition.

I won't be having much on this one, I think it will be close, I lean to the Niners, but this stat isn't exactly convincing “49ers are 1-13-1 ATS as favourites in their last 15 games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after the bye.” if you buy into those kinds of trends.

Bet recommendations

• Dante Pettis o26.5 receiving yards – 1.83 (Bet365)

Good luck if you're on anything, and if you're up to watch I hope it's not as garbage as last weeks MNF was.

Adam (@TouchdownTips)

TDTips

Betting Content Writer

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