Heading into the ATP Rome Masters 2024, few would have expected to see Alejandro Tabilo and Alexander Zverev meet in the semi-finals. And yet, that’s the match-up we have this Friday afternoon, with the winner booking their place in Sunday’s final.
Who can continue their hot run? Read on for our Tabilo vs Zverev prediction and betting tips.
Tabilo is the man of the hour, having upset Novak Djokovic earlier this week for the loss of just five games. More importantly, the Chilean has not been a one-hit wonder. Since then, he’s banked equally impressive straight-set wins over Karen Khachanov and Zhizhen Zhang.
With a deadly serve and a forehand that most players would give their left you-know-what for, Tabilo is a force to be reckoned with on clay. Up against him, however, is our favourite to win the tournament, the No. 3 seed and 2017 champion.
Zverev has been as solid as they come this week, cruising through four matches in straight sets. Most recently, he faced his biggest challenge and passed with flying colours, seeing off an in-form Taylor Fritz for the loss of just seven games.
Can Zverev extinguish the flame of the giant-killing Tabilo, or will the underdog claim yet another scalp?
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How the Bookies View It: Not Today, Tabilo
Tabilo has no issue defying the bookmakers’ odds, but he’s up against some pretty steep ones here in the Rome semi-finals. The 26-year-old is at 3/1 to upset Zverev, with his opponent paying odds of just 1/4 to prevail. Set betting says this is over quickly, with bet365 putting a Zverev win in two at 4/5.
Recent Head-to-Head: Uncharted Territory
This will be the first meeting between Tabilo and Zverev on the ATP Tour.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Both players have been strong on serve this week, and miserly on unforced errors.
In the quarter-finals, Zverev served at 77 percent and won 78 percent of first serve points. He faced no break points, hitting only four unforced errors across the one-hour, 30-minute match. For Tabilo, his figures weren’t far off either.
The Chilean made 63 percent of first serves in his quarter-final but won the point an impressive 83 percent of the time. Of the two break points he faced, both were saved, and he struck just eight unforced errors in one hour and 27 minutes.
Tabilo began 2024 ranked No. 85 in the world. Now, regardless of what happens against Zverev, he’ll be ranked inside the world’s top 25–a rise of 60 places in the ATP rankings in less than five months. If his success continues in Rome, he could finish the week as high as No. 16 in the world.
Tabilo vs Zverev Betting Tips & Predictions
Despite the fearless tennis that Tabilo is playing, his run has to end sometime. Zverev is the perfect man for the job we say. He’s been here before, knows what it takes to win a Masters 1000 title, and looks to be playing stable tennis this week. Back him to put an abrupt halt to Tabilo’s fairytale.
- Zverev -3.5 handicap @ 8/11
- Under 22.5 games @ 8/11
Tabilo and Zverev take to Centre Court first on Friday, so get your bets in quickly to make the most of these predictions.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
In December 2020 we sadly 
