The French Open is just three days old, and already there have been some classic matches. Another looms on Wednesday, as top seed Iga Swiatek takes on former No.1 and four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka. Who wins this big name battle? Read on for our Swiatek vs Osaka prediction and betting tips.
It’s no exaggeration to say this French Open is Swiatek’s to lose. The 22-year-old came into Paris off the back of consecutive Masters 1000 titles, defeating all of her big rivals on the European clay in Madrid and Rome. She’s not lost here at Roland-Garros in three years, and is the two-time defending champion.
Can anyone stop Swiatek? Maybe not, but if someone does, it could well be Osaka, who was once an unstoppable force herself.
The Japanese player has had an up and down last few years. After reaching the pinnacle of the game in her early 20s, Osaka struggled with her mental health and took time away from the sport. During this break, she became a mother.
Now, returning to the WTA Tour recently, Osaka seems a more mature, well-rounded player. But can she match it with the best of them still? Read on to find out.
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How the Bookies View It: Only a Contest on Paper
Unfortunately, bookmakers don’t believe this will be much of a contest. Swiatek pays an incredible 1/25 at bet365 to defeat Osaka, with her opponent at a long 12/1. Set betting expects this to be 2-0 Swiatek at 1/5, while the Pole is given a -6.5 handicap at 4/6.
Recent Head-to-Head: Even Stevens
Swiatek and Osaka have met twice before on the WTA Tour, sharing the spoils 1-1. Osaka won their first match 7-6(4), 6-4 in Toronto in 2019, before Swiatek got revenge in 2022, prevailing 6-4, 6-0 in the Miami final.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Having only really returned to professional tennis at the start of this year, Osaka is still ranked outside the world’s top 100. However, signs are there already that the 26-year-old is returning to her former level.
To date in 2024, Osaka is 12-9 from 21 matches. Of her victories, several have come against top 20 players, with Osaka downing the likes of Daria Kasatkina, Marta Kostyuk, Elina Svitolina and Liudmilla Samsonova. This indicates that while Osaka is still struggling with consistency, she has a tendency to get up for the big matches.
Swiatek has played in the second round of Roland-Garros five times across her career. To date, she’s only dropped 16 games in second round matches, averaging 3.2 games lost per match at this stage of the tournament.
Swiatek vs Osaka Betting Tips & Predictions
It’s an exciting clash on paper, but we can’t see this match going any other way than a Swiatek victory. However, there are enough promising signs from Osaka for us to be comfortable betting on the Japanese player to be competitive here.
- Osaka +6.5 handicap @ 11/10
- Total games over 17.5 @ 5/6
Swiatek and Osaka will take to Court Philippe-Chatrier last in the day session on Wednesday, so get your bets in before then. Make sure to check out our women’s French Open predictions too while you wait.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
