We already see a number of bookmakers offering punters some great prizes for correctly guessing six scores in upcoming Premier League games.
With that in mind, we have decided to take up the Super 6 Challenge.
Here are this week's selections.
Our Super 6 Challenge predictions
Arsenal vs Sunderland
At the Emirates, the league leaders host a Sunderland side punching above expectations. Arsenal lead the table with 53 points, Sunderland sit eighth with 36, and the gap shows clearly in the data.
Arsenal’s home profile is dominant. They average 1.90 non-penalty xG and concede just 0.70 xGA, winning 100% of home xG battles. Their home record reads W9-D2-L1 with 28 goals scored and eight conceded.
Over the last four games Arsenal post 1.76 xG and 0.31 xGA, alongside 9.48 xPTS. Shot dominance is clear, with 15.08 shots per game and only 5.67 conceded.
Sunderland’s away numbers show why this is a difficult trip. Away xG sits at 0.93 with 1.54 xGA, and their away record is W2-D4-L6. Over the last eight away games they average 1.20 xG and concede 1.92 xGA, with only 6.0 shots inside the box created and 13.0 conceded.
Sunderland can stay compact but struggle to sustain pressure. Arsenal control territory, limit shots, and convert dominance into goals.
- Score 2-0 at 9/2 with Skybet
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
Saturday afternoon at the Vitality Stadium features a matchup between two sides still firmly involved in the battle for European positions. Bournemouth start the round 12th on 33 points, while Aston Villa sit third with 46 points and continue to outperform most pre-season expectations. Despite the gap in the table, the underlying data suggests a closer contest than league position alone implies.
Bournemouth’s home performances have been competitive and aggressive. Their home xPTS stands at 19.98, placing them eighth overall, supported by a home xG of 1.60 and xGA of 1.50. That narrow differential reflects a side that commit numbers forward but remain vulnerable defensively.
Bournemouth average 12.50 shots per home match, with 4.25 on target, while conceding 8.92 shots and 3.00 on target. Shots inside the box show a similar pattern, with 6.67 for and 4.67 against. Their home record of W6-D4-L2 underlines resilience, with only two defeats across 12 games.
Villa’s away data is strong but not dominant. They hold an away xPTS of 13.15, ranking 12th, with 1.30 xG for and 1.13 xGA. Villa concede territory but protect central areas well, allowing 12.42 shots per away game and 3.67 on target. Their away record of W6-D3-L3 shows balance rather than control. Recent form remains solid, although last four and last eight splits show a slight reduction in attacking supremacy compared to earlier in the season.
The matchup points towards a game where Bournemouth’s pressing and shot volume at home forces Villa into extended defensive phases, while Villa’s efficiency in transition keeps them dangerous. Both sides average above 50% for over 2.5 goals across season splits, and neither defence consistently suppresses shots inside the box.
- Score 1-1 at 6/1 with Skybet
Wolves vs Chelsea
Molineux hosts a matchup between bottom-placed Wolves and a Chelsea side still pushing for the top six. Wolves sit 20th on eight points, while Chelsea are fifth on 40, yet recent data suggests Wolves are competitive despite poor results.
Wolves’ home xPTS of 16.31 sits higher than their points return, driven by 1.06 xG and 1.40 xGA. Wolves average 9.67 shots per home game with 3.75 on target, conceding 10.92 shots and 4.58 on target. Their home record of W1-D2-L9 explains their position, but several performances have been closer than results indicate.
Chelsea’s away profile is mixed. They average 1.59 xG and 1.63 xGA away, with an away record of W5-D4-L3. Over the last eight games, Chelsea post 2.09 xG and 2.08 xGA, pointing toward high-variance matches rather than control. Shots inside the box across recent splits show Chelsea creating volume but leaving space defensively.
The matchup suggests Chelsea will dominate possession, but Wolves’ recent xG trends indicate they remain capable of contributing chances at home.
- Score 1-2 at 7/1 with Skybet
Newcastle Utd vs Brentford
St James’ Park stages a meeting between two mid-table sides with contrasting styles. Newcastle begin the weekend 11th on 33 points, while Brentford sit seventh on 36, yet recent data narrows the perceived gap.
Newcastle’s home metrics remain competitive. They post a home xPTS of 22.06 with 1.37 xG and 1.18 xGA. Shot production sits at 13.17 per home match with 5.25 on target, while shots inside the box average 8.50 for and 8.08 against. Their home record of W7-D2-L3 reflects consistency without dominance, with Newcastle often relying on sustained pressure rather than efficiency.
Brentford’s away data shows volatility. They average 1.49 xG away while conceding 1.16 xGA, but their away record of W4-D0-L8 exposes inconsistency. Brentford allow 12.75 shots per away match and 4.00 on target, suggesting defensive strain when pressed for long periods.
Recent splits slightly favour Newcastle. Over the last eight games, Newcastle average 1.75 xG and 1.29 xGA, while Brentford post 1.88 xG and 1.65 xGA, with a higher total xG but weaker suppression. Newcastle’s home xG battle win rate of 75% further supports their edge at St James’ Park.
- Score 2-1 at 15/2 with Skybet
Brighton vs Crystal Palace
The Amex hosts a tight mid-table derby with Brighton 13th on 31 points and Palace 15th on 29. Both sides remain clear of immediate danger but lack consistency.
Brighton’s home xPTS of 17.08 reflects balance rather than edge. They average 1.47 xG and 1.50 xGA at home, with 13.25 shots and 4.92 on target per match. Their home record of W5-D6-L1 highlights resilience but limited cutting edge.
Palace’s away data mirrors that balance. They average 1.35 xG and 1.27 xGA away, with an away record of W5-D2-L5. Over the last eight games Palace post 1.50 xG and 1.87 xGA, suggesting recent defensive regression. Over the last nine games no side has won fewer points than Palace with W0-D3-L6.
With both sides showing similar chance profiles and limited supremacy metrics, this matchup projects as evenly matched.
- Score 1-1 at 11/2with Skybet
Liverpool vs Man City
Anfield closes the weekend with a title-shaping fixture. Liverpool sit sixth on 39 points, while City are second on 47, yet underlying metrics show two elite sides converging in performance.
Liverpool’s home data remains strong. Their home xPTS of 24.04 ranks second, supported by 1.61 xG and 1.08 xGA. Liverpool average 17.50 shots and 5.17 on target at home, with 10.50 shots inside the box for and 5.67 against. Their home record of W7-D3-L2 reflects sustained attacking pressure.
City’s away profile remains elite. They average 1.64 xG and 1.12 xGA away, with an away record of W5-D3-L4. Recent splits show City averaging 1.87 xG over the last eight, but conceding 1.45 xGA, indicating increased openness. Their record against top half sides on the road over the last two seasons reads W4-D5-L9.
Both sides rank above 50% for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals across season and recent splits, with combined total xG consistently above five.
Score 2-2 at 10/1 with Skybet
The total odds for all six games are a massive 187,186/1 with Skybet, which may be worth a £1 stake for some fun. I am keen to back Arsenal to win 2-0 and Chelsea to win 2-1 at Wolves. Combining these two games combined gives you odds of 43/1 with Skybet.
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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