In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
James Tarkowski brought us profit last weekend as he registered a header on target against Spurs, whilst Yoane Wissa also managed an effort on target against Liverpool, resulting in another payout. It was almost an excellent weekend as Nikola Milenkovic scored with a header, but his goal was ruled out for a very small infringement.
Overall a positive week and we are back to attack the set piece angle again with a perfect matchup between Wolves and Arsenal.
Wolves vs Arsenal
Wolves have struggled significantly with set-piece defence in the Premier League this season, conceding the most goals (15) from set pieces despite having an xGA of just 6.79. They have also allowed the third-most shots from set pieces, with 33.21% of their shots conceded coming from second-phase situations—the second-highest percentage in the league.
Their defensive frailty was on display against Chelsea, where they conceded two set-piece goals. Notably, one of Chelsea's centre-backs scored, while another had his goal “stolen” on the line by Noni Madueke.
Adding to the unrest, Wolves are facing internal issues. Former club captain Mario Lemina is reportedly seeking a move away, while the new captain Matheus Cunha has faced public criticism from the manager regarding his body language during their defeat to Chelsea. The manager’s history of openly criticising players further complicates the situation.
Meanwhile, Arsenal have excelled in set pieces, scoring the most goals from dead-ball situations (10) and generating the highest xG from set pieces. They also rank among the top five sides for the most shots created from set pieces.
Defender Gabriel has been a key threat, taking 18 shots this season, with 14 of them coming from headers, and scoring three times. He was unlucky not to score with a header in their clash against Spurs.
In summary, Wolves are the league’s worst-performing team when it comes to conceding from set pieces, while Arsenal stand out as the best team at capitalising on them.
- Best Bet: Gabriel to have a header at goal at 1.91 with Betfair
- Best Bet: Gabriel 1+ header on target at 3.50 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Gabriel to score at anytime at 8.0 with Paddy
Crystal Palace vs Brentford
Brentford have struggled defensively on the road this season, conceding more shots per game (21.40) than any other Premier League team. They also allow the highest number of shots on target away from home and have the fourth-highest xGA conceded on the road—behind only the three sides currently sitting in the relegation zone.
Wingback Daniel Munoz has had a good season so far. He has registered 21 shots and eight shots on target overall. Earlier in the campaign, he went on an impressive run, registering at least one shot in 10 consecutive games and a shot on target in six of those eight games. However, he has failed to take a single shot in his last three matches.
Crystal Palace are in excellent form, having gone unbeaten in their last 10 games, winning five of them, including three victories in their last four matches.
Ismaila Sarr has been a standout performer for Palace. In 15 starts, he has managed 29 shots and 19 shots on target. At home, he has been especially consistent, with 14 shots and nine shots on target across eight home starts. Remarkably, he has only failed to register a shot in one of those starts and has missed having a shot on target in just two of his eight home appearances.
- Best Bet: Daniel Munoz over 0.5 shots on target at 3.25 with Bet365
- Best Bet: Ismaila Sarr over 0.5 shots on target at 1.80 with Bet365
Southampton vs Newcastle
Southampton have been defensively vulnerable this season, particularly from set pieces. They have conceded the second-most goals from set pieces and the highest number of shots from such situations, with the highest xGA from set pieces in the league. A staggering 24% of the goals they have conceded have come from set pieces.
Their overall league form is dire, with just W1-D3-L18, conceding an average of 2.27 goals per game. Recent results are even worse, with 11 goals conceded in their last three matches and 16 goals conceded in their last four home games. At home, they have allowed the most shots on target and shots inside the box while registering a high xGA of 2.02 per game. Over the last four games, the Saints have recorded the fifth-highest xGA from set pieces.
Newcastle, in contrast, are performing well on the road with a record of W5-D3-L3. They average 1.73 goals per game away from home and have scored in 10 of their 11 away matches this season. Their recent away form is impressive, winning their last three road games and scoring eight goals in the process. They rank 6th for away xPTS and average 1.53 xG per game on the road.
Defender Dan Burn has contributed with 12 shots in 21 games this season, often taking advantage of teams that struggle with set-piece defence. Notable examples include Bournemouth (two shots in one game), Wolves (1 shot in both meetings), and Leicester (two shots) and managed a shot against Spurs, who have struggled with defensive injuries.
With Southampton’s defensive frailties and Newcastle’s strong away form, this matchup heavily favours Newcastle, especially in set-piece situations.
- Best Bet: Dan Burn 1+ header on target at 5.0 with Skybet
Combining Dan Burn and Gabriel to have a header on target each will give you odds of 17.50 with Skybet.
