In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Ipswich Town vs Arsenal
We backed Dara O’Shea a few weeks ago and landed a winner, so we are happy to go back to the well with him again.
O’Shea is a major aerial threat for Ipswich and plays a key role during set pieces. He has had 19 shots in 29 appearances this season and is clearly being targeted more frequently in recent weeks—registering five efforts across his last three games, all stemming from set plays. With Ipswich essentially resigned to relegation, they have been playing with more freedom lately, and a settled starting XI is also helping their rhythm. Manager Kieran McKenna has placed heavy emphasis on set pieces as a way to stay competitive, and O’Shea, alongside Cameron Burgess, is one of the main targets in those situations.
Arsenal, meanwhile, are coming off a massive Champions League triumph in Madrid and will likely rotate the squad. With Gabriel ruled out for the season and potential rest for Jakub Kiwior or William Saliba, a weakened or shuffled backline could increase Ipswich’s chances of exploiting dead-ball situations.
Given the setup and recent trends, O’Shea is well worth a look again for a shot from set pieces.
- Best Bet: Dara O'Shea over 0.5 shots at 2.5 with Betfair
Man Utd vs Wolves
Joao Gomes has been in excellent form in recent weeks, backing up his four-shot display against Ipswich with another two efforts against Spurs. We were on him for 2+ shots last week, and he delivered—this weekend looks like another strong opportunity for a repeat.
Wolves are flying under the radar, sitting fourth in the Premier League form table over the last 10 games, with six wins—only Liverpool, Arsenal, and Newcastle have collected more points. In contrast, Manchester United have taken fewer points than all but the bottom three, West Ham, and Bournemouth over the same span.
Under Ruben Amorim, United have managed just six league wins, three of which came against Ipswich, Leicester, and Southampton. Defensively, they have struggled—just two clean sheets at Old Trafford under Amorim, and they have conceded 2+ goals in six of ten home matches. With a taxing European game going to extra time on Thursday, questions will be asked of both the physical and mental state of the squad.
As for Gomes, he has taken 32 shots in 30 Premier League appearances this season—but his recent form shows a notable uptick: 13 shots in his last six games and 15 across the last eight. He us growing in confidence, just like this Wolves side, and with a win potentially putting them level on points with United, expect another fired-up performance. Backing Gomes for 2+ shots again looks like strong value.
- Best Bet: Joao Gomes over 1.5 shots at 3.80 with Ladbrokes
Fulham vs Chelsea
Pedro Neto has been in and out of the Chelsea side this season, but he now appears to have nailed down a regular starting spot—having featured in the starting XI in seven of the last eight Premier League matches. During that run, he has registered 23 shots, averaging 2.87 per game. Even in the Brentford match, where he played just 32 minutes, Neto managed four shots—two of which were on target.
Across the season, Neto has taken 48 shots in 1,743 Premier League minutes, averaging one every 36 minutes. In his 18 starts, he has attempted 37 shots—recording at least one in 15 of those games. When playing 60 minutes or more, he has averaged 2.3 shots across 16 appearances.
With pressure mounting on Chelsea and the manager, Neto is likely to start behind Nicolas Jackson, supported by Cole Palmer and Noni Madueke. That setup should offer him plenty of shooting opportunities.
SkyBet offering even money (2.00) on Neto to register 2+ shots looks like excellent value, especially considering Bet365 price it at just 1.33 and the next-best market price is 1.68. If he starts, this is a strong value angle worth backing.
- Best Bet: Pedro Neto 2+ shots at 2.0 with Skybet
Backing Dara O'Shea to register at least one shot at goal and then both Joao Gomes and Pedro Neto to each have two or more shots can be backed at 14.0 with Skybet.
GambleAware