In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Man Utd vs Man City
The Manchester Derby returns on Sunday, though this season's context is a far cry from the title-deciding battles of years past. Manchester United are enduring one of their worst Premier League campaigns in a generation, on pace for their lowest points tally and goal total since the Premier League began. In contrast, Manchester City are hitting form at the right time, showing their class in the FA Cup quarter-final against Bournemouth and cruising to victory over Leicester in midweek.
With Erling Haaland sidelined for at least two months, January signing Omar Marmoush is expected to lead the line. He has taken 23 shots across seven starts this season (averaging 3.28 per game) and showed his threat on Wednesday with nine shots and three on target—his first game as a true central striker. Against a United side sitting 14th for xPTS over the last eight matches, conceding 1.42 non-penalty xGA and eight big chances, City should create plenty.
Marmoush is 2.80 to have 2+ shots on target, which looks excellent value—especially with free-kick and penalty duties likely in Haaland’s absence.
As for United, they should create chances too. City have won just seven of their last 20 away games across all competitions and kept only four clean sheets in that run. Bruno Fernandes, with 75 shots (23 on target) this season, has had six shots on target in his last three league games. At 1.85 for 1+ shot on target, he’s the standout pick for United.
- Best Bet: Omar Marmoush over 1.5 shots on target at 2.80 with Coral
- Best Bet: Bruno Fernandes over0.5 shots on target at 1.85 with 10Bet
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
A huge clash in the race for Champions League qualification sees Nottingham Forest travel to Villa Park to face Aston Villa. Villa currently sit seventh on 48 points, and with fifth place likely enough for Champions League football next season, every match is critical. Manchester City currently occupy fifth with 51 points, while Forest sit third on 57—almost assured of a top-four finish. A win for Villa here would narrow the gap to Forest to just six points and keep their European hopes alive.
Since his January arrival, Marcus Rashford has been preferred up front by Unai Emery over Ollie Watkins. Rashford has gradually settled in—he came off the bench against Ipswich and managed four shots (one on target), followed by 66 minutes against Liverpool where he had one shot. His breakthrough came against Brighton, where he started, scored, and recorded two shots with one on target. With his role as the central striker likely to continue, Rashford to have 1+ shot on target at 1.80 looks strong value.
Forest will likely sit deep and play on the counter, which could allow Villa plenty of possession and shooting chances. While Forest have been excellent at home, their away record is far more patchy: W8-D2-L5 overall, but just W1-D2-L5 away to top-half sides—the only win coming against Liverpool.
Villa have been exceptional at home and should have enough to win this game. If they do, Rashford registering a shot on target looks highly likely.
- Best Bet: Marcus Rashford over 0.5 shots on target at 1.80 with Coral
Ipswich Town vs Wolves
Wolves travel to Ipswich in a true make-or-break fixture for the Tractor Boys. Anything less than a win would be a major blow to their survival hopes—a draw leaves them nine points behind Wolves with just seven games to play, while a Wolves victory would all but confirm Ipswich’s relegation.
Set pieces could be crucial here, and the stats point to a real weakness in the Wolves defence. Over the last eight matches, they have conceded 4.0 xG from set pieces—only five teams have allowed more. Across the season, Wolves rank fourth for shots conceded from dead-ball situations and third for xGA from set pieces.
Ipswich carry a real threat in this area. Manager Kieran McKenna has consistently stressed the importance of set pieces in the relegation fight, and that rings truer now than ever. Dara O’Shea and Cameron Burgess are the key aerial targets. O’Shea has had 15 shots in 27 appearances and came close midweek with a free header against Bournemouth. Burgess, who is expected to partner him again, has nine efforts on goal from just 11 starts.
With both defenders heavily involved at attacking set pieces, backing either to have a header on goal looks excellent value—especially in a game where Ipswich will be throwing everything forward.
- Best Bet: Dara O'Shea over 0.5 shots at 2.45 with Coral
- Best Bet: Cameron Burgess over 0.5 shots at 2.7 with Ladbrokes
Backing Omar Marmoush and Marcus Rashford to have at least one shot on target and Dara O'Shea to register a shot at goal can be backed at 6.35 with Coral.
Further Reading
- Manchester United vs Manchester City Prediction and Betting Tips
- Brentford vs Chelsea Prediction and Betting Tips
- Tottenham Hotspur vs Southampton Prediction and Betting Tips
- Fulham vs Liverpool Prediction and Betting Tips
- Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Prediction and Betting Tips
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