In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest
Ipswich Town are in real danger, and their recent performances suggest they are one of the worst sides in the Premier League right now. Having earned back-to-back promotions, they have largely avoided heavy criticism this season, but their struggles have been glaring—especially at home. They rank 19th for xPTS and xG ratio, while only Southampton have conceded more shots on target than Ipswich, averaging 5.21 per game. Defensively, they allow 8.57 shots inside the box per match, with only four sides conceding more—a group that could all be relegated by the time Saturday's fixtures conclude.
This weekend, Ipswich face a daunting challenge as they host Nottingham Forest, while Wolves travel to bottom-placed Southampton. If Wolves pick up three points and Ipswich lose, it would put Ipswich nine points behind Wolves with an inferior goal difference—effectively leaving them 10 points adrift with just nine games to play, all but sealing their fate.
From a betting perspective, Callum Hudson-Odoi presents an interesting angle in the shots market. Forest are pushing for a Champions League spot, and with Ipswich’s defensive vulnerabilities, Hudson-Odoi should have plenty of opportunities to register shots and shots on target. Ipswich are without right-back Axel Tuanzebe, meaning they will either have to play Dara O’Shea out of position or recall Ben Godfrey, who endured a nightmare against Heung-Min Son and hasn’t played since.
Hudson-Odoi has taken 33 shots this season, with 13 in his last 10 matches, hitting two or more in three of those games. More importantly, he has recorded at least one shot on target in five of his last six matches, with the only exception being a 0-0 draw against second-placed Arsenal.
With Hudson-Odoi registering at least one shot in his last 10 matches, backing him for 2+ shots at 1.73 looks reasonable, but the standout bet is Hudson-Odoi to have a shot on target, given his consistency in this market, making it the best way to play this fixture.
Julio Enciso is expected to play in the No. 10 role for Ipswich, just behind Liam Delap, and when given the chance to start, he has been highly active in front of goal. In his three starts for Ipswich, he has registered 11 shots and five on target, despite limited game time. What’s particularly impressive is that in one of those games, he played just 16 minutes against Aston Villa but still managed to get a shot on target.
When Enciso has played 74+ minutes in a match for Ipswich, his numbers are even more eye-catching, averaging two shots on target and 10 total shots. Since joining from Brighton on loan in January, he has made five starts across both clubs, and in that period, he has recorded 20 shots and nine shots on target, managing at least one shot in every start and at least one shot on target in each of those five games. Even in a 57-minute cameo for Brighton against Aston Villa, he still managed a shot on target.
In total, Enciso has played 484 minutes in the Premier League this season, recording 31 shots and 16 shots on target. This means he is averaging a shot every 15 minutes and a shot on target every 30 minutes—a remarkable output for a player who has seen limited action.
Given his consistency, backing Enciso for a shot on target at 1.73 looks a strong bet. However, to boost the odds to 2.35 with Sky Bet, adding over 1.5 total shots makes for an even more appealing option, offering excellent value based on his shot frequency this season.
- Best Bet: Callum Hudson-Odoi over 0.5 shots on target at 2.17 with BetMGM
- Best Bet: Julio Enciso over 0.5 shots on target and over 1.5 shots at 2.35 with Skybet
Everton vs West Ham
Beto is in excellent form, continuing to be Everton’s primary attacking threat in Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s absence. Despite struggling in a tough game at Wolves, he still managed two shots on target, meaning he has now hit the target at least twice in each of his last six matches since David Moyes returned to West Ham and Calvert-Lewin was side-lined. Over that period, Beto has started every game for Everton and registered 13 shots on target—a clear sign of his growing influence in the attack.
Everton’s attacking numbers have drastically improved in recent weeks. Under Sean Dyche earlier in the season, they struggled for goals, but now their xG has jumped from 0.94 to 1.3 per game, while shots inside the box have risen from 5.14 to 6.4. Most importantly, their goals per game have soared from 0.67 to 1.88 over their last eight matches.
This upturn in form has seen Everton rank second for xPTS in the last eight games—behind only Liverpool. Their 1.35 non-penalty xG per match in this period is the eighth-best in the league, while their set-piece threat has also increased, ranking fourth for set-piece xG in the last eight games. Defensively, they’ve been solid too, creating eight big chances while conceding just two over this period—the best ratio in the Premier League.
They now face a West Ham side ranked 15th for xPTS over the last eight matches, having conceded 1.21 non-penalty xG per game while allowing eight big chances—with 12 teams conceding fewer in that span.
Backing Beto for one shot on target is priced at a very short 1.43, but the value lies in him registering two or more shots on target at home against a vulnerable West Ham side at 2.90—a price that looks like an excellent bet given his recent output.
- Best Bet: Beto over 1.5 shots on target at 2.90 with Betway
Southampton vs Wolves
Wolves have a golden opportunity to all but secure their Premier League status for another season as they travel to Southampton, a side on course to be one of the worst teams in Premier League history. Southampton’s collapse has been staggering, and over their last eight matches, they have conceded an average of 2.47 xGA per game—the highest in the division. They sit rock bottom for expected points in that period and have conceded the most big chances (16) while allowing an average of 11.5 shots inside their box per game—clear evidence of their defensive frailties.
This is a team that looks to have completely given up. A managerial change has done little to improve their fortunes, and relegation to the Championship now seems inevitable. Their defensive woes have only worsened, conceding an alarming 17.37 shots per game over their last eight fixtures, with opponents averaging eight shots on target per match in that run. Given these numbers, it’s highly likely that Wolves will rack up shots on target against a side that appears desperate for the season to end.
These two teams are in completely different places—Southampton are limping towards relegation, while Wolves know that three points would effectively confirm their Premier League survival, especially if Ipswich fail to beat an in-form Nottingham Forest.
One player who stands out in the shots market is Marshall Munetsi, who has been in excellent form since arriving in January. In just four games, he has already taken nine shots, including three on target. He even managed two shots on target in just 45 minutes and scored against Everton in his last home appearance. Though he was substituted at halftime in that match, Wolves manager Victor Pereira confirmed it was only a precaution rather than an injury concern.
Munetsi has quickly become a fan favourite at Molineux, operating in an attacking midfield role just behind Jorgen Strand Larsen . With Matheus Cunha out, Munetsi is expected to play a key attacking role again, and given his recent performances, he looks well-positioned to register at least one shot on target in this game.
- Best Bet: Marshall Munetsi over 0.5 shots on target at 2.07 with Unibet
Combining Enciso, Beto, Munestsi all to have at least one shot on target each can be backed at 3.98 with Betway
GambleAware