In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Going to continue the trend of shots on target from pieces this weekend. We had good success over the last few weeks so seems silly to deviate from the plan.
Last time out we had winners with Dara O’Shea having a shot within the opening 10 minutes at Spurs to land our even money bet and Jorgen Strand Larsen had a header shot on target at to cash our 2.88 bet.
Ipswich vs Man Utd
Manchester United may be welcoming a new manager at Ipswich, but the timing of his arrival is unlikely to make an immediate impact this weekend. With minimal preparation time between the manager joining and the return of players from international duty, the team’s ongoing weaknesses, particularly from set pieces, are likely to persist.
United have the fifth-highest xGA from set pieces in the Premier League and have already conceded four goals in these situations—third most in the league.
Ipswich Town, meanwhile, have emphasised set pieces as a key strategy this season. Manager Kieran McKenna highlighted at the start of the campaign that exploiting set pieces would be crucial to their survival in the Premier League.
The Tractor Boys have already scored twice from these scenarios and rank among the top five in set-piece shots taken during home matches. Averaging 3.73 set-piece shots per match, Ipswich are well-equipped to capitalize on United’s vulnerability, who concede an average of 3.18 set-piece shots per game.
Key players to watch include Ipswich’s central defenders, who are pivotal to their set-piece strategy. Jacob Greaves, returning from injury, and O’Shea are likely to lead the charge. O’Shea has been particularly consistent, registering nine shots in eight matches, with at least one shot in seven of those games. Greaves, if he starts, also offers value, having recorded five shots in seven games prior to his injury.
Coming off a morale-boosting victory at Spurs before the international break, Ipswich will be aiming to build momentum. Betting on O’Shea to have a shot at odds of 1.72 offers strong value, and Greaves, should he play, is another viable option for set-piece opportunities at a higher price.
- Best Bet: Dara O’Shea to have over 0.5 shots at 1.72 with Bet365
- Best Bet: Jacob Greaves to have over 0.5 shots at 2.62 with Bet365
Man City vs Spurs
Manchester City boast the second-highest xG from set pieces in the Premier League this season with 5.3, having already scored four goals from such situations, the second-most in the league. They also lead the league in shots taken from set pieces, which bodes well for this matchup.
In contrast, Tottenham have struggled defensively against set pieces, ranking third highest in xGA from these situations. They have already conceded four goals from set pieces this season, with 41 shots allowed in total.
Tottenham’s defensive woes are compounded by injuries, with Cristian Romero a doubt and Mickey van de Ven already sideline, this could force a makeshift centre-back pairing against City. Spurs concede an average of 3.61 shots per match from set pieces on the road, while Manchester City average five shots from set pieces per game—the highest in the league.
Erling Haaland, expected to start for City against Tottenham, is likely to exploit this vulnerability. Of his 55 shots this season, 17 have been headers, making it probable that he will register at least one headed attempt on target during Saturday evening's clash.
City’s dominance in possession should result in a high number of set pieces and corners, putting additional pressure on Spurs’ defence. Haaland, who is averaging 1.54 headed shots per game in the league, is well-positioned to capitalise on the space created in Tottenham’s box.
- Best Bet: Erling Haaland to have a headed shot on target at 2.75 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Erling Haaland to score a header at 8.0 with Paddy
Southampton vs Liverpool
Southampton have conceded the highest xGA from set pieces in the Premier League this season, reflecting their struggles in defending these situations. They have also allowed the second-most goals from set pieces, conceding seven goals from an xG of 7.28. Only Leicester and Wolves have allowed more shots from set pieces.
Additionally, 33.33% of Southampton's total goals conceded this season have come from set pieces.
Liverpool, while not ranking particularly high in xG, shots, or goals from set pieces, have the advantage of Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate as aerial threats. With Liverpool averaging the fifth-most corners per game in the league, and Southampton conceding the third-most, the visitors are likely to generate opportunities from these situations.
Southampton’s struggles are even more pronounced at home, where they concede a league-high 6.2 shots per game from set pieces.
Van Dijk has already registered five headed shots this season, while Konate has contributed six. Given Southampton’s position at the bottom of the table, they are likely to spend much of the match defending as Liverpool dominate possession. This should lead to an accumulation of set pieces for Liverpool, creating prime scoring opportunities for their centre-back pairing.
- Best Bet: Virgil van Dijk to have a headed shot on target at 4.00 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Ibrahima Konate to have a headed shot on target at 5.50 with Skybet
Combining O’Shea, Haaland and van Dijk to all have a header on target will give you odds of 55.0 with Skybet.
