In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
We are back after a short break and turning our focus to the shots and shots-on-target markets this weekend. The aim is to find value in player lines built on clear data trends rather than guesswork, particularly where defensive weaknesses can be exploited. Set-piece vulnerability remains one of the most reliable angles in these markets, with several sides struggling to defend corners and second-phase deliveries.
This week’s selections centre on players who are consistently involved in attacking situations and face opponents that concede chances in repeatable ways. Whether it is defenders stepping up at corners or forwards testing shaky backlines, the numbers point to good opportunities across the slate..
Swansea City vs Ipswich Town
Marcelino Nunez should start in the No 10 role against Swansea, which makes him a strong pick again for shot volume. In his three league starts he has produced two, six, and three shots, showing consistent attacking intent whenever he starts. He has registered at least one effort in eight of his nine appearances overall, with the only blank coming when he played just 12 minutes while Ipswich were defending a lead. Averaging nearly five shots per 90 minutes, Nunez is one of Ipswich’s most active shooters and looks confident in advanced areas.
Jaden Philogene provides steady reliability alongside him. He has had at least one shot in 11 of his 12 league games, with the only exception being an 18-minute cameo at Bristol City. Averaging around three shots per 90 and boasting six goals, his directness and tendency to cut inside make him a constant shooting threat.
If Philogene does not start, Sindre Egeli is a strong replacement for 1+ shot. The young forward has taken 14 shots in eight appearances, registering at least one in seven of those. The only time he failed to do so was away from home when he played just eight minutes.
With Ipswich’s attack among the league’s most productive, Nunez 2+ shots & Philogene (or Egeli) 1+ shot looks a solid, data-driven selection.
- Best Bet: Marceline Nunez over 1.5 shots and Jaden Philogene over 0.5 shots at 1.80 with Bet365
Man City vs Liverpool
Erling Haaland to have a header on target looks a strong value play based on both his individual profile and Liverpool’s defensive trends. The Norwegian has produced 43 shots in 10 league matches, with 15 coming from headers which is the highest aerial share of any forward in the division.
He has scored twice with his head and registered at least one header on target in six of those ten games. Manchester City’s delivery patterns continue to feed him regularly, with Savinho, Foden and Doku all providing consistent service from wide areas.
Liverpool, meanwhile, remain vulnerable in the air under Arne Slot. They have conceded the third-most headed shots (36) and six headed goals in the Premier League this season. Their zonal marking setup often leaves gaps between defenders, which Haaland routinely exploits with smart near-post and back-post movement. City’s approach naturally funnels possession into wide zones, and Haaland’s presence demands early and deep crosses into the box.
Given his aerial frequency, physical dominance and Liverpool’s ongoing issues defending those deliveries, the numbers strongly favour at least one Haaland header testing the goalkeeper. It’s a bet supported by consistent shot data, clear tactical logic and matchup evidence.
- Best Bet: Erling Haaland over 0.5 headers on target at 13/8 with Paddy
Tottenham vs Man Utd
Micky van de Ven looks a strong outside pick for a shot against Manchester United. The Dutch defender has recorded seven shots in 10 Premier League matches this season, showing he is becoming increasingly involved at attacking set pieces. Spurs have been one of the league’s most effective sides from dead-ball situations with only two teams have scored more set-piece goals and their delivery quality from Pedro Porro ensures regular opportunities for their centre-backs.
Manchester United continue to look fragile in this area. They rank third highest in the Premier League for xGA from set pieces, a clear sign of how often they allow opposition defenders shooting chances from corners and free kicks. Their zonal system has repeatedly been exposed by movement and second phases around the six-yard box.
Van de Ven’s combination of pace, timing, and aerial power makes him a natural target when Spurs crowd the goalmouth. With Tottenham creating steady volume from set plays and United consistently conceding from them, Van de Ven to have 1+ shot is a logical, data-backed selection that aligns well with both teams’ current profiles.
- Best Bet: Micky van de Ven over 0.5 shots at 21/20 with Betway
- Best Bet: Micky van de Ven over 0.5 shots on target at 5/1 with BetMGM
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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