In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
The last three shot columns have returned 5.48 units of profit, a 54.8% ROI. That edge comes from process. Shot betting moves fast. A player used out of position or a tactical tweak is priced in quickly by bookmakers.
Detailed shot data and shot location profiles shape every selection. They highlight who is shooting, where those shots come from, and how repeatable the volume looks.
That approach sharpens prices before the market settles. It also filters out noise created by single game spikes or headline performances. This column sticks to that framework. Data first. Context second.
Our shots on target betting picks
Liverpool vs Leeds Utd
Anton Stach to record at least 2+ shots against Liverpool is supported by role, recent volume, and game structure.
Leeds United have moved to a 3-5-2 and the impact on shot volume is clear. Since the change they are averaging 16.8 shots per game. Before the switch the average was 11.9. That is a material increase driven by wing backs providing width, two forwards pinning centre backs, and midfielders stepping into higher shooting zones.
Stach is a direct beneficiary. Since the formation change his shot counts read three, three, six, one, three. That is 16 shots across five games, an average of 3.2 per match. Four of the five games cleared the two shot line comfortably. The six shot performance highlights the ceiling when Leeds sustain pressure. Even the lowest return of one came in a match where Leeds still generated strong team volume.
Stach is now arriving late around the edge of the box rather than holding deeper positions. Those arrivals create repeat shooting chances from second balls and recycled possession rather than relying on single breaks. His shots are coming naturally within the structure, not from forced attempts.
Liverpool matches tend to produce shots for both sides. Wolves, the lowest shot side over the last eight games, still managed nine shots with four on target against Liverpool last weekend. Leeds reached 12 shots against Liverpool earlier in December, before their move to a higher volume system.
Game flow adds upside. Liverpool control territory but leave space in transition and on second phases. That suits midfield runners rather than only forwards.
Leeds are a higher volume shooting side under the 3-5-2. Stach averages over three shots since the switch. Liverpool games allow opponents to shoot. The 2+ shots line aligns cleanly with role, trend, and matchup.
- Best Bet: Anton Stach over 1.5 shots at 13/8 with Bet365
West Ham vs Brighton
Carlos Gomez to record 1+ shot on target is supported by team shot volume, opponent trends, and his starting splits.
Brighton are playing at a high tempo. Over the last four games they have taken 62 shots. Over the last eight games that rises to 115. That places them among the highest volume sides in both short windows. Brighton continue to generate attempts even when results fluctuate, which keeps secondary attackers involved.
Ham United are allowing sustained pressure. Across their last four games they have conceded 59 shots. Across the last eight games they have conceded 117. Only a small number of sides allow more over those periods. That volume against creates repeated phases around the box rather than isolated chances.
Carlos Gomez has a clear split when starting. Across his 12 league starts he has hit the target 10 times. The output improves away from home. He has started six away league games and has recorded at least one shot on target in five of them. That is an 83.3% hit rate. Those away starts include Wolves, Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Liverpool, and Arsenal, showing the return travels against different profiles.
Gomez is likely to play on the left as one of the three behind the main striker. However, he finds shooting positions early before any deeper in game shifts. His shots are box based rather than speculative, backed by strong xG spikes in individual matches.
Brighton shot volume is high over four and eight game windows. West Ham concede heavy volume over the same periods. Gomez has landed 1+ shot on target in five of six away starts and shows reliable output when starting.
- Best Bet: Carlos Gomez over 0.5 shots on target at 17/20 with Coral
Sunderland vs Man City
Phil Foden to record 2+ shots and 1+ shot on target is supported by form, role, and opponent profile, even with the game played at Sunderland.
Recent form is the starting point. Over his last six games, Phil Foden has taken 21 shots and hit the target 10 times. That is 3.5 shots per game and 1.67 on target per game. The exact bet has landed in all six. This is repeatable output, not one spike performance.
Season level data supports the trend. He has 39 shots from 1,315 minutes, which equates to 2.97 per 90. He has produced at least two shots in 11 of his 15 starts. Accuracy remains stable with one shot on target every 2.1 attempts. When volume reaches three shots, the shot on target follows consistently.
He has started across several positions and shot volume has remained intact across roles, with stronger numbers when operating centrally or between the lines. Minutes remain strong with frequent full games and no recent pattern of early substitution.
The matchup still supports volume. Sunderland concede more shots than any other side overall. Only three teams concede more shots in the box. At home, they still allow regular box entries and shots on target against, with defensive pressure failing to limit opposition midfield runners arriving late.
Manchester City dominate territory and possession away from home, sustaining shot volume across multiple attackers. Foden benefits from secondary shooting opportunities around the box rather than relying on low probability efforts.Recent form shows six straight landings. Season data confirms volume and accuracy. Sunderland’s defensive profile allows shots and box access even at home. The 2+ shots and 1+ shot on target line remains aligned with usage, output, and matchup.
- Best Bet: Phil Foden over 1.5 shots and over 0.5 shots on target at 10/11 with Bet365
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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