In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Man City vs Crystal Palace
Man City remain vulnerable without the ball, and opponents have been able to exploit them in transition all season.
They have managed just nine clean sheets in the Premier League — only five of those came against sides outside the bottom three. Narrow it further, and it is just two clean sheets in 13 home games at the Etihad against teams not in the bottom two.
City rank 9th for xPTS at home, allowing 1.30 xGA per game. Over their last 12 league matches, they have conceded an average of 1.18 xGA — far from the dominance we are used to seeing.
A win for Crystal Palace would cut the gap to City down to just seven points — and their form suggests it is not out of the question.
Across the last 22 matches, only four teams have picked up more points than Palace. Since the turn of the year, only Liverpool have earned more. Over the last eight games, they rank 5th for non-penalty xG ratio and 3rd for shots-in-the-box ratio — showing they are creating plenty of high-quality chances.
They will get opportunities here — and it is hard to see them not scoring.
Jean-Philippe Mateta is the main threat. He’s scored 13 goals this season, registering 55 shots with 23 on target. He has hit the target in each of his last 11 league appearances, racking up 14 shots on target in that span. With Eberechi Eze, Ismaila Sarr, and Adam Wharton all in the side, Palace have the creativity to feed him — and he is making the most of it.
- Best Bet: Jean-Philippe Mateta over 0.5 shots on target at 1.91 with Coral
Wolves vs Tottenham
Joao Gomes was outstanding for Wolves last weekend, registering four shots and rattling the woodwork in the win over Ipswich.
Wolves now host Spurs at Molineux, and the visitors’ defensive record on the road leaves plenty to be desired.
Tottenham rank 15th for xPTS away from home, with an xGA of 1.67 — the worst outside the bottom three. They have conceded the sixth-most shots in the box on their travels, and only three teams have allowed more big chances. Overall, they sit 17th in the league for big chances conceded and have kept just four clean sheets on the road all season. Notably, five of their 16 away points have come against teams currently in the bottom three.
Gomes has taken 30 shots in 29 Premier League appearances this season, but his attacking output has noticeably increased — firing 11 shots in his last five matches and 13 in his last seven. That upturn has coincided with Wolves winning five of their last eight games.
With Spurs possibly distracted by their upcoming European clashes with Frankfurt, this could be another opportunity for Gomes to shine.
- Best Bet: Joao Gomes over 1.5 shots at 2.88 with Skybet
Brighton vs Leicester City
Leicester have struggled badly since Ruud van Nistelrooy took charge.
They now face Brighton with relegation looming large. The Foxes have picked up just two wins in their last 20 Premier League matches, collecting only seven points in that stretch. They have failed to score in eight consecutive games and have been dismal away from home, with a W2-D2-L11 record and 37 goals conceded — an average of 2.47 per game.
Despite their poor form, they’re still managing 2.72 shots on target per game under Van Nistelrooy, registering at least one in 17 of 18 matches. Brighton will give them chances — they have allowed an average of 3.27 shots on target per home game this season.
If Leicester are going to find the net, it’s likely to be through Jamie Vardy.
The veteran striker has attempted 49 shots this season, 20 of which have been on target. Over his last 17 appearances, he has hit the target 16 times, recording at least one in 11 of those games. His blanks came against Man City, Everton, West Ham, and Newcastle away, as well as Arsenal at home.
The pressure is mounting on both the players and Van Nistelrooy, with fans growing increasingly vocal. If anyone is going to dig deep and deliver a response, it is Vardy — a proven competitor who still has the desire to perform, even if it’s just for personal pride. He was one of the few bright spots in the recent defeat to Newcastle, managing three shots and one on target.
- Best Bet: Jamie Vardy over 0.5 shots on target at 2.1 with Unibet
Backing Jamie Vardy and Jean-Philippe Mateta to have at least one shot on target and Joao Gomes to register at least two shots at goal can be backed at 10.24 with Ladbrokes.
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