In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
The Murillo bet last weekend was a winner, and given his recent form, it makes sense to back him again. There is great value in continuing to support centre-backs to register shots on target, particularly against teams that struggle to defend set pieces. It is no surprise, then, that we are also backing Villa's defenders to cause Southampton problems this weekend.
Manchester Utd vs Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest's centre-backs continue to look like solid options for registering at least one shot per game. Last week, we successfully backed Murillo to have a shot, and this remains a strong option. Murillo has consistently managed at least one shot in each of his last eight games, including the recent away match against Manchester City.
He poses a dual threat: attacking set pieces and confidently stepping out of defence to shoot. Additionally, Murillo is on long-range free-kick duties, providing further opportunities for him to register attempts on goal. At odds of 2.25 with Bet365, betting on Murillo to have any shot on goal looks like excellent value, especially given his consistency.
Manchester United, meanwhile, are still in a transitional phase following their managerial change. They have conceded an average of 11 shots per game recently, allowing 11 to Ipswich, eight to Everton, and 14 to Arsenal in midweek. This defensive vulnerability boosts the appeal of Murillo's shot market.
In the same fixture, I also like the look of Murillo’s centre-back partner, Milinkovic, to have a shot on goal. So far this season, he has registered 12 attempts, with eight coming from headers. A physical presence at set pieces, Milinkovic has also recorded at least one shot in each of his last six games, including two against Manchester City midweek at the Etihad.
Manchester United have the fifth-highest xGA from set pieces this season at 4.95 and have allowed 45 shots from these situations, resulting in four goals. Their struggles defending set pieces were evident midweek, with Arsenal capitalising to score twice, even with Maguire and De Ligt in the line-up.
This will be another challenging test for United’s defence. Milinkovic to have any shot on goal is priced at even money, and for him to register a header on target, Sky Bet offers odds of 9.5—an enticing value given United's ongoing defensive frailties.
- Best Bet: Murillo over 0.5 shots at 2.25 with Bet3656
- Best Bet: Nikola Milenkovic over 0.5 shots at 2.00 with Bet365
- Best Bet: Nikola Milenkovic 1+ headed shots on target at 9.50 with Skybet
Aston Villa vs Southampton
As I have highlighted before, Southampton have significant issues defending set pieces. From their 13 matches, they have conceded seven goals from set pieces, with an xGA of 8.32 and 71 shots allowed—the highest xGA and number of shots conceded from set pieces in the Premier League. Only Wolves have conceded more goals from these situations than the Saints.
This week, Southampton travel to Villa Park, and I am backing both of Aston Villa’s centre-backs to register a header on target. Southampton will be without captain Jack Stephens following his midweek red card in their 5-1 defeat to Chelsea, and with Jan Bednarek side-lined due to injury, they will struggle defensively. While Harwood-Bellis is set to return from suspension, their defensive frailties are a major concern.
Aston Villa, on the other hand, are a strong threat from set pieces. Only four teams have attempted more shots from set plays, and Villa lead the league in xG from these situations. Ollie Watkins has been the main aerial threat with 12 headed attempts this season, while Tyrone Mings registered two headed shots in his lone appearance against Brentford.
Konsa is expected to start, although Mings may be rested following his midweek 90 minutes after returning from a long-term injury. If Mings is rested, Pau Torres is likely to step in, and he has already registered two headed attempts this season. Regardless of who starts, Villa’s centre-backs are strong options for set-piece involvement.
You can back Konsa to have one headed shot on target at odds of 4.5, while Torres is priced at 5.0. Unfortunately, Mings has not been priced at the time of writing. If you prefer a safer route, Konsa is also available at 4.33 to have any shot on target, which may offer better value.
- Best Bet: Konsa to have over 0.5 shots on target at 4.33
- Best Bet: Pau Torres to have 1+ headed on target at 5.0 with Skybet
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
Manchester City travel to Crystal Palace on Saturday as they aim to close the gap on Liverpool at the top of the Premier League table. This is a crucial game for City, not just in the title race but also in the battle for the top four. Despite their recent poor form, City bounced back midweek with a 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest, though Forest created several chances, registering 12 shots (three on target) with an xG of 1.04.
Crystal Palace are expected to defend deep, which could force City to rely on shots from distance as they look to break down Palace’s back three. Josko Gvardiol, who was benched in recent matches, returned to the starting lineup against Forest and remains a strong option in this type of game. This season, Gvardiol has taken 20 shots in 13 appearances (12 starts), making at least one shot in 11 of his 12 starts. His recent shot numbers read: 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2. Against Palace last season, he managed two and three shots in the respective fixtures, and he is well-positioned to take at least two shots here.
Palace have conceded an averaged 12.3 shots at Selhurst Park this season. Meanwhile, City, despite some underwhelming results, have averaged 18.57 shots per Premier League game this term. Away from home, this figure drops slightly to 16.14, but they have only failed to register at least 15 shots in two games this season: at Anfield and on the opening day against Chelsea. Even in their recent loss to Brighton, City managed 15 shots, and they registered 18 against Bournemouth.
At Selhurst Park, Palace have struggled to limit their opponents' shot counts, conceding 17 to Fulham, 11 to Spurs, 16 to Liverpool, 15 to Newcastle, and 18 to West Ham. Given City’s attacking prowess, there is every reason to expect a high number of shots in this match, which enhances Gvardiol’s chances of registering at least two attempts.
- Best Bet: Josko Gvardiol, over 1.5 shots at 2.75 with Bet365
Combining Gvardiol, Konsa and Murillo all to have a shot on target will give you odds of 83.41 with Bet365.
In December 2020 we sadly 
