Serie A top scorer odds and tips: All hope gone for Retegui?

The latest Serie A top scorer odds mimic those surrounding the title race in several ways, with a three-horse race emerging and a close-fought battle playing out.

It’s a very open market at present, and here we’ll explore the latest odds before making one of our most difficult calls yet.

Best Serie A top scorer odds

Selections to watch

Mateo Retegui

He may still be at the head of the scoring charts – albeit jointly now – but it has been a tough few weeks in terms of goals for Atalanta’s star striker Retegui. Having enjoyed some red-hot form at the start of the season, his scoring momentum has tailed off in the last month or so, allowing his main rivals to make up significant ground.

A lack of minutes has led to the Italian forward managing to find the net only once in his last five Serie A fixtures, keeping his tally at 12 goals.

Still out with an injury and with no fixture this week, top bagsman Mateo Retegui has has to settle for his current total of 12 league goals so far. 

The Italian forward has been briefly sidelined with a thigh injury sustained in his side’s 3-2 victory over Empoli on 22nd December. 

Expected back in late January, it is set to be a frustrating spell away for Retegui, who has been forced to watch Inter’s Marcus Thuram level him on goals at the top of the scoring charts. 

Luckily, colleagues Charles De Ketelaere and Ademola Lookman have shown that they know where the goal is too, and if Retegui loses too much game time, there’s still a chance that Lookman (with nine goals so far) can go on a spree of his own and keep Atalanta’s hopes of a Serie A title and top scorer double alive.

Marcus Thuram

A similarly fixtureless week meant that joint-top scorer Marcus Thuram was also unable to add to his tally of 12 goals this week. 

After a fantastic spell had pulled him level with Retegui, manager Simone Inzaghi will be hoping that his side’s gutting defeat to AC Milan in the Supercoppa final will not have dampened the Frenchman’s spirits.

Thuram played no part in his team’s loss, clearly being saved for league matches. The same has been true for Thuram in the Champions League, often being rested or restricted to a lower number of minutes.

Based purely current form, he is certainly the striker that looks the most likely to top the charts come the end of the season. Plus, there’s talent all over the park that can assist him and make his job infinitely easier, and with the highest average match rating in Serie A to boot, his consistency makes him a safe bet.

Moise Kean

Moise Kean has been enjoying life in Florence after his summer move to La Viola, managing to notch 11 goals in 17 league appearances so far. A hat-trick against Hellas Verona in November remains arguably the striker’s most notable performance so far, and it was a showing which capped a run of six goals in three league matches.

However, the league's third-top scorer completed the trio of non-movers this week, as he was unable to find the net against a resolute Napoli side who asserted their dominance at the table’s summit.

90 minutes against the league leaders yielded no results after a stellar performance versus Juventus had seen him move past the 10 mark last week. A goal and an assist in a 2-2 demonstrated that Kean needs to be taken seriously for the Serie A Golden Boot, and he now stands only one goal behind Retegui and Thuram.

Evidently, it is still all to play for as to who will win the coveted accolade at the season’s closure. 

Our Serie A top scorer prediction

If the assumption that he will continue to focus on domestic duties proves correct, we’re going to back Thuram to finish as Serie A’s top gun.

Meanwhile, anyone wanting to back him to score on a game-by-game basis might appreciate a few more intricate stats:

• Of his first 12 league goals in 2024/25, the last five came during wins that yielded a multi-goal margin for Inter.
• In the last three Serie A games to see him score multiple times, his first and second goals were separated by no more than 10 minutes of play.
• Going into 2025, Inter have never lost a Serie A game in which Thuram has scored! (W18, D2).

Although the last of those stats is arguably the most impressive, the second of them has the greatest potential to be very useful in an in-play betting situation. If one Thuram goal goes in, there’s a decent chance another will follow quickly, especially against the weaker teams.

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