Serie A top scorer odds and tips: Retegui rewarding early punters

The latest Serie A top scorer odds mimic those surrounding the title race in several ways, with a three-horse race emerging and a close-fought battle playing out.

It’s a very open market at present, and here we’ll explore the latest odds before making one of our most difficult calls yet.

Best Serie A top scorer odds

Selections to watch

Mateo Retegui

Mateo Retegui continued his rich vein of form at the weekend, picking up a goal in his side's 5-0 romp at Empoli. This made it a staggering 21 strikes for the Italian forward in Serie A this season, a tally which puts him six goals clear of closest rival Moise Kean.

Although Atalanta as a team have been unable to match their star player's capabilities, it is a testament to the Italian that he has been able to perform at such a high level when the last month has been a greatly troubled period for the club. Yet, still three points behind the leaders, there is every chance that La Dea could snatch the Scudetto for the first time.

With Retegui leading the line, they have every right to believe. The 25-year-old has picked up five goals in his last three Serie A matches, with two of those results being 5-0 destructions. Retegui is now the firm favourite to end the season with the league's coveted Golden Boot.

Marcus Thuram

It has been a pretty miserable few weeks in front of goal for Inter Milan's Marcus Thuram, as he is goalless in his previous five outings in Serie A, leading to Retegui building up a seven-goal advantage in the race for the Golden Boot.

Due to a downturn in form, Thuram has recently been replaced up front by Mehdi Taremi, with the Iranian forward forging a partnership with Inter's current first-choice striker, Argentinian hitman Lautaro Martinez.

He also did not feature this weekend in Inter's 1-0 win over Genoa, as it was Martinez again who was on the scoresheet, picking up a 78th-minute goal that snatched all three points for the Nerazzurri.

Now 11/1, Thuram is seen as a very obvious outsider to win the Serie A Golden Boot.

Moise Kean

It was a sad weekend for fans of former Everton striker Moise Kean, as the player collapsed and was rushed to hospital due to a head injury in Fiorentina's 1-0 defeat to Hellas Verona.

In spite of the spell on the sidelines with which he is now faced, Kean has been in stellar form this season, notching 15 goals and cementing himself as the closest rival to runaway favourite Retegui.

While it is currently unknown how long he will spend out injured, the player himself will be hoping for a swift return, as he is enjoying his best-ever goal-scoring season as a professional. Six strikes behind Retegui, it would be a long shot for the Fiorentina hitman to win the Golden Boot, but never say never.

Our Serie A top scorer prediction

If the assumption that he will continue to focus on domestic duties proves correct, we’re going to back Thuram to finish as Serie A’s top gun.

Meanwhile, anyone wanting to back him to score on a game-by-game basis might appreciate a few more intricate stats:

• Of his first 12 league goals in 2024/25, the last five came during wins that yielded a multi-goal margin for Inter.
• In the last three Serie A games to see him score multiple times, his first and second goals were separated by no more than 10 minutes of play.
• Going into 2025, Inter have never lost a Serie A game in which Thuram has scored! (W18, D2).

Although the last of those stats is arguably the most impressive, the second has the greatest potential to be very useful in an in-play betting situation. If one Thuram goal goes in, there’s a decent chance another will follow quickly, especially against the weaker teams.

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