The Championship weekend begins on Friday night when West Bromwich Albion host Leicester City at The Hawthorns. Both clubs come into the fixture looking to build momentum but from very different positions of strength.
West Brom have taken 10 points from their first six games and sit just outside the top six. Their xPTS return of 8.4 suggests they are slightly overachieving, but the underlying numbers remain positive. At home they have been hard to break down, conceding just two goals and ranking among the best sides for xGA. A dominant 18-4 shot count in their win over Derby summed up their control at The Hawthorns. Manager Ryan Mason has rotated well and has no fresh suspensions, although Daryl Dike sidelined.
Leicester’s start has been more mixed. Three wins from six leaves them sitting in fourth place and their xPTS of just 7.1 reflects a side that have struggled to impose themselves. Away from home the numbers are concerning, with a defeats at Preston and a draw with Oxford coming with heavy shot deficits. A 17-11 concession against Coventry last time confirmed their defensive problems.
Both teams arrive off the back of mixed results, West Brom losing narrowly at Middlesbrough while Leicester drawing 0-0 with Coventry. The mood around the clubs contrasts though: Albion fans see a side building resilience, while Leicester supporters are questioning the balance of the squad under new management. Friday night offers West Brom a chance to underline their strong home form, while Leicester need to prove they can compete in these tougher away assignments.
How the bookies view it: The Baggies favourites
West Brom are priced at 27/20 to win on Friday, which carries an implied probability of 42.6%, while Leicester are 9/4 (30.8%) and the draw is 5/2 (28.6%). The market gives the hosts a slight edge, reflecting their strong home record against Leicester’s poor away numbers.
Goals look less clear-cut, with over 2.5 at 11/10 equating to a 47.6% chance and both teams to score at 5/6 implying 54.5%. That points to the bookmakers expecting opportunities at both ends without being fully convinced of a high-scoring contest.
Head to Head: Foxes excellent record at the Hawthorns
Leicester have dominated recent meetings with West Brom, winning eight of the last thirteen clashes and losing only three, with two draws in that run. They did the double two seasons ago, edging both games 2-1, and have taken maximum points in their last six visits to The Hawthorns, scoring at least twice in five of the six.
West Brom’s last victory in this fixture came back in November 2016, a 2-1 success away from home, while the overall goal difference across the last thirteen encounters stands at 26-17 in Leicester’s favour.
Players to watch: Phillips to cause issues from set pieces
Nathaniel Phillips looks a strong candidate for the shots market on Friday, with the data pointing firmly towards value in 2+ attempts. The centre-back has made a big impact since arriving at The Hawthorns, starting all six league games and already producing 11 shots. He has registered at least one effort in five of those fixtures, with multiple attempts in three, including three against Wrexham and two each against Portsmouth and Derby.
His role as a primary target on corners is clear, and the numbers around this matchup only strengthen the case. West Brom rank fourth in the Championship for shots from set pieces at home, while Leicester are struggling badly in this area. On their travels they have the second highest xGA from set plays, and no side has conceded more shots from dead-ball situations. That weakness lines up perfectly with Phillips’ output, making 2+ shots well within reach.
Predicted line-ups
West Bromwich Albion (4-2-3-1): Griffiths, Mepham, Phillips, Campbell, Styles, Molumby, Mowatt, Wallace, Price, Diakite, Heggebo
Leicester City (4-2-3-1): Stolarczyk, Pereira, Faes, Vestergaard, Thomas, Winks, Soumare, Fatawu, James, Mavididi, Ayew
Anything else catch the eye?
A good way into Friday’s match is backing a combination of markets: both teams to be carded, West Brom over 9.5 shots, and under five total goals. Each leg is supported by consistent data.
Starting with discipline, West Brom have been shown at least one card in four of their six games. Leicester also have four carded matches from six, and crucially every Leicester opponent has received at least one booking. With referee Stephen Martin in charge, the case is stronger. His four Championship games this season have averaged almost six yellows, including a heated contest between Blackburn and Ipswich last weekend. That volatility makes both sides to be carded highly likely.
West Brom’s shot numbers are equally persuasive. They have attempted 12 or more in every league game so far, clearing 13 in five of six. At The Hawthorns they produced 18 against Derby and 13 against Portsmouth, while even at Middlesbrough last week they managed 15. Leicester concede an average of 13.7 shots per game, and outside their opener against Sheffield Wednesday they have allowed at least 17 in three separate matches. That sets up West Brom over 9.5 shots as a confident angle.
Finally, goals are worth keeping onside but with a limit. West Brom’s last four matches have seen unders hit in three, with their own xG running at 0.74 per game in that stretch. Leicester’s attack is faltering, averaging just 0.72 xG across the same period and only one game with more than two goals. Under five provides a wide margin for a game that profiles more like 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1.
Put together, the three legs offer a balanced way of backing trends in cards, shots, and goals.
GambleAware