A Union Berlin in complete disarray hosts a RB Leipzig that would be a title contender if Bayern Munich weren’t from another planet. On the one end, the hosts need points to extend the gap to the relegation zone, and on the other, the visitors have to keep up with the champions’ pace.
Union Berlin produced another disasterclass when they travelled to relegation-threatened Wolfsburg last week, losing 3-1. This was the Iron Ones’ third defeat in a row and the team now has a single win in its last five Bundesliga games.
There is only one small reason for optimism, and that is the fact that Union Berlin at least score goals in almost every game and at least try to fight until the end. But they will need much more than that if they plan to oppose RB Leipzig, who will be excited after their last game and hungry for more.
The Red Bulls played Eintracht Frankfurt in the previous round – a match we expected to at least be competitive, while we backed RB to win. But we never expected the 6-0 win and their overall sensational performance.
After their win, RB Leipzig remained second in the table but moved to tied-second in goals scored with 28 in 13 rounds.
How the bookies view it: Beating Union away is never easy
Bookmakers believe RB Leipzig will be the better team on the pitch, but they also considered the fact that beating Union Berlin away is never easy.
With this said, you can currently back Union at 5/2, the draw at 13/5, or RB Leipzig at 1/1.
Recent head-to-head: One of RB's toughest rivals
One thing is certain – this rivalry has been far from one-sided in recent years. In fact, the statistics are completely even, with both teams having five wins in their 12 Bundesliga meetings since 2019.
However, RB have had the upper hand in recent years, with Union failing to win any of their last four H2H matches. It is also interesting to note that both matches last season ended in 0-0 draws.
Players to watch: Harder to try even harder after his first goal
We continue to argue that Christoph Baumgartner deserves much more attention than he gets, and he proved it again in the match against Eintracht with a goal and two assists. His influence in midfield is pushing RB Leipzig towards success.
We can also mention the young Conrad Harder, who is finally beginning to justify the enormous trust placed in him. The 20-year-old Dane scored his first goal for the team against Eintracht, which should give him tremendous motivation.
Probable line-ups
Union Berlin: Ronnow, Trimmel, Doekhi, Querfeld, N’Soki, Kohn, Haberer, Kemlein, Schafer, Jeong, Ansah
RB Leipzig: Gulacsi, Nedeljkovic, Orban, Lukeba, Raum, Schlager, Seiwald, Baumgartner, Diomande, Harder, Nusa
Anything else catch the eye?
As we already mentioned, even the best teams usually find it difficult to beat Union Berlin at Stadion An der Alten Forsterei. Bayern Munich, for example, have struggled in their two visits to this stadium so far, drawing 2-2 once and barely scraping a 3-2 win last week after two own goals.
That's why we don't think it's a good idea to bet on the visitors. Instead, we believe that, unlike last season, this time we will see goals from both teams in the match.
Four of Union's last five matches have covered over 2.5 goals, as have eight of RB Leipzig's last 10. We also expect to see quite a few cards, given Union Berlin's style of play. We can also note that four of the last H2Hs included at least five cards, which makes us believe Betano's Over 3.5 at 3/5 is worth a shot.
When a price looks too good to ignore, that’s value. Learn how to identify it with our Value Betting guide.
GambleAware